[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ERnT1X9HPw 450 300]

A Song for the Times?
___________________________________

Well, so much for Helicopter Ben’s New York Times- abetted “tightening” kabuki theater act.

Did you enjoy it?  I hear he’s been studying at the New School.

I dunno, maybe the guys down at Goldman called Bernanke up last night and asked him for some help in getting out of their Euro shorts, since DXY (sorry, no quote yet — see? [[DXY]] ) had run up to about $80.30 today by lunch time, only to tuck tail and (Black?) swan dive right back down to $80 flat just in time for Benjamin’s Jawboning routine at 2:15 pm. 

That particular bit of mummery and prestidigitation must’ve in turn convinced at least one or two bag-holding kaftan merchants from Milwaukee to buy dollars again, because the dollar index got all the way to $80.10 by late afternoon, giving us all that familiar “blah” feeling at the close.

All pretense seems to have dropped away after the stock mavens went home, however, and the dollar is now (as of 12:36 am Eastern) trading back down to yesterday’s low’s at about $79.74, looking at a “next stop” of about $79.50, and then $79 even.     Party on, Garth (and Darth… Vadon, that is).

These incipient moves should be enough to get our rally on in the gold and silver sector, not to mention our other hard currency equivalents including earl, natural gas, and the specialty metals.   I was extremely busy today and I apologize, but my punishment was not being able to add much to the portfolio, although I would’ve loved to finish my Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] accumulation today.   I am quite sure it will be more dear tomorrow.  

I was able to add 60 more June $40 [[GDX]] calls at $5.80.   They were a standing order, and I think I may have been able to get them even cheaper, but beggars, chooser, etc. etc.   I now have total 120 of those $40 June strike calls, and I think I’m done there.  

 The rest of my exposure will remain in liquid equities, and I hope to add to positions tomorrow in the usual suspects, and perhaps some NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] .   I also like Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] ‘s relative strength as of late.  

For silver I may dip my toe in the Chanci selection — [[SVM]] , as I’ve admired their price action recently.  I may also look to grab some additional [[PAAS]] .   If [[CDE]] stalls in the early trade, I may also add to that one.

Platinum is reviving tonight along with its brethren, so don’t forget about [[PTM]] and [[PAL]] . 

On the non-precious side, I may grab some [[ERX]] for a ride similar to that of [[AGQ]] .   I also continue to like Petroleo Brasileiro SA (ADR) [[PBR]] and Occidental Petroleum Corporation [[OXY]] .    I also happen to think SandRidge Energy Inc. [[SD]] is undervalued here, and it is a perennial favourite (sic) of The PPT .

Last, don’t forget Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] , Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] and Titanium Metals Corporation [[TIE]] in the specialty metal names, and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]] , as their lithium is a bargain here as well.    I expect tomorrow will be a good day for we merry shipmates of the U.S.S Jackson.

All aboard!

______________________________________

Comments »

 

Truck O’ Molten Assets
______________________________________________________
That beeping sound you hear is me backing up the truck, and grabbing some more lovely PM positions as the sun goes down on this day of dollar death.

I’ve mentioned that I love Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] for the long term, almost as much as I like Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] on the silver side. IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] cannot be ignored here either.   They are running on Greek kisses and Spanish wishes, but so what?   With the dollar (DXY) and it’s proxy, [[UUP]]   down 53 cents and 17 cents, respectively, as we speak, I think we may have that turn in the dollar we were looking for at last.  If we continue to stay below that magical $80.20 line, I’ll be even more sure of it.

Let’s face it folks, it would be great if the European Central Bank could maintain this Teutonic “austerity” charade with regard to it’s wayward little brothers to the South,  but the fact is, if they want to keep their phony baloney Starfleet Federation currency trading with any credibility, they will have to continue to subsidize the mistakes of the least common denominators.    And yes, this seems anti-intuitive, to save the Euro by weakening it with these bailouts, but the fact is the world markets prefer stability to necessary nut cutting.

Truth is, the Germans will some day emit a huge sigh of relief when they get their beloved Deutschmark back and they can once again run rampant over the rest of the Europe in currency blitzkrieg, if not via their formerly preferred method of  “Large Iron Rolling.”    Until then, they will stubbornly continue to try to make this European Union thing work,  and cope with continuing annoyance at those who would rather hang out in the sun, drink Ouzo  and go sailing, whilst dancing the mazurka and opening large menu diners.

All this brings me back to the punch bowl party over on this side of the pond.  With the Euro saved,  for this week at least, the robots at Goldman Sachs have been re-programmed to short the dollar and buy Barbie dolls and other such Mattel, Inc. [[MAT]] toys — Hasbro, Inc. [[HAS]] anyone?

We, the proleteriat, can now come back down off our panic chairs and continue with our most profitable line of employment — namely, fondling gold bars until their corners go smooth and sucking on silver ingot lozenges until our colds go away.

I continue to love, and accumulate the above mentioned names, and in addition I am grabbing, as I type (with my other hand) some [[EXK]] , Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] and the “N’s” — NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] .   

Last but not least, I like lithium (you know why, don’t you?) in Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) [[SQM]]  , and I like to say “molybdenum” ten times frontways and then ten times backways.   If Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] is not bought out by the likes of BHP Billiton Limited (ADR) [[BHP]] or Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] or even Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] (its fellow Jackson) within two years, then I’ll be greatly surprised unto paralysis.

Peace be upon you, my brethren, as our plan “comes together, right now, over me.”

________________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg 450 300]

Ahm gonna take this itty bitty world by storm…

And ahm just gettin’ warm….

_______________________________________________

Just in case any of you are thinking this recent pullback has been anything but a dollar play, have a look at this piece by ETF Trader (and by extension, The Financial Times).   Yes, that’s an $8 billion plus short on the Euro, and that’s only what we peons are seeing.  It could be a lot worse, or it could be all for show.  

What we do know is that the Euro is just another failed fiat waiting to happen.   Whether it occurs before the dollar (likely) or after, they all meet the same end, in tears.  Right now, the dollar is strengthening against it, after dropping to test support at the $80.09 level, and back to $80.34, after opening at $80.40.  

As you know, I think anything over $80.20 is a bad sign, and that combined with the large selling on strength from Fridays trade (some $675 million in the SPYs), we may be in for testing that 1,035 level on the [[SPX]] after all.    The silver stocks, after showing some promise this morning, are tipping their heads in obeisance to a further weakening in the POS (currently hanging above it’s $15.03 open at $15.11) and even the POG (currently $1,065.60).

I will be focussing on opportunistic gold plays today, as I’ve gotten quite a bit of silver in [[AGQ]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] the last couple of days, and only got half my [[GDX]] calls on Friday.  I’ll be looking at some of that under $41 and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] on any more weakness like this morning (which I missed, dammit).    I may bend for more [[EXK]] as I still have room for another 2k shares in that name.

The overall word is caution, but be ready to jump on an alert, because if Soros or some other whale wants to squeeze these Euro shorts, it’s going to be five alarm time for the PM’s.   Same will be true if the Euro really cracks, although I’m not sure the effect on gold will be as harsh as the effect on my poor silver horde.

Best to you all.

_______________________

Comments »

 

Freeeeeeee-ddddoooooooooooommmmmmmm!!!

________________________________________________
Just wanted to let you know that I’m still here, albeit with my guts wound around a spool and looking forward to that “Can’t-Get-Here-Soon-Enough” beheading.

I kid, of course.  But I didn’t want you to think I had abandoned you all, or my positions.  No, I’m sticking hard here, and have not deployed any more money today, although a couple of things are looking very tasty. Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] is one of them, already up more than a buck off it’s lows of the day. I may dabble in that one more time before the day is out.

[[AGQ]] is presently suffocating me, by means of a large rock laid across my larynx, choke-out style. This is the way this stock trades, though, so you have to be ready for “double draw-downs” as it is a double ETF. I will be looking to add that final 600 shs here, however, and it may be today or tomorrow. Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] is equally as ugly, but has (as a kind reader mentioned on the previous thread) quite a reputation from pulling back hard off of highs. Whether it gets all the way to 35%, I cannot say, but I’m also waiting to see how that on develops.

For golds, RGLD aside, Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] is performing the best of my three cabelleros. Next IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and dragging up the rear is the less liquid Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] . I continue to think Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] will provide the best long term bang for your buck, but I’d only nibble until a turn is confirmed.

The dollar (DXY) is most frustrating here, as it ran all the way to $79.97 only to fall back to the $79.84 region. I was hoping it would clear out all the way to $80.50 or so, but it looks like we may have to wait on that action again, at least until tomorrow.  

There’s also a possibility that $79.97 was the high water mark, but I’m not counting any of those quail’s eggs yet.   

Note — 1,035 or so is a 10% retrace on the S&P (or $103.5 on the [[SPY]]  — that could be a nice target for any resumption in the overall cyclical bull.  I imagine we’ll all be pretty exhausted at that point.

Hang in there, folks.  

________________________________________

 Special Update:  

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcoVxbutl8g 450 300]

_________

 

Best to you all.

Comments »

 

Krull Leaves the Poker Game for a Quick Smoke Break
_________________________________________________________________________________
Up 3% yesterday, even with all my hedges still in place, I must bow to the volcanic power of the precious metal rebound we experienced yesterday.

That doesn’t mean I’m abandoning my post on the 12th slippery rung of the main municipal sewer — the cosy seat next to the extrusion pipe but before the extrusion weld.   No, I’m still expecting a pullback today from yesterday’s Ode to Joy/Bunny Rabbit Massacre, unbounded. 

But the dollar (seen on the intraday as [[UUP]] or DXY) still continues to fall off here, and I’m wondering if we will ever get back up to that $80.10 or so pivot (on DXY)  I’d talked about as a trigger for another downturn last week.    I won’t be surprised, however, if we get another exogenous shock out of Davos, the PIIG’s or even President Obama’s recently unveiled near $4 trillion FrankenBudget. 

For now, I’m liking what works on the rebound, and thus far, it’s the fast movers of the junior golds like Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and “the X-factor” — Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] .   I also like IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] of course, and Lindsay made a nice rec yesterday on the nicely pivoting Taseko Mines Limited (USA) [[TGB]] .

Of course silver is my true Tsar Bomba play in 2010, as it has been lagging the 2009 move in gold, along with platinum [[PTM]] , Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] and palladium [[PAL]] .   Right now, in this first updraft, I like the double silver play [[AGQ]] a whole lot, and of course my core group of miners — in order — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] , [[PAAS]] , [[CDE]] , [[SVM]] , Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and the lowly Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] .

All of these should be gnawed at opportunistically, as one would a bread wheel from the boulangerie, deep under the steam pipes of Manhattan.

I am still not taking down my hedges (in  [[SPY]] puts and [[QID]] and [[BZG]] ), and will happily bleed money on them here, as that insurance policy has served me well these last weeks.   Nothing could please me more than taking them down at lower balances, however, as that would mean all of my other plays are working well, as they did yesterday.

Don’t forget about the banks, here, as they’ve never really suffered much of a pullback, even in last week’s deluge.  Today, they seem to be leading the red dogs, which may turn out to be an opportunity for you.   Again, I like BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] for the longer term hold, Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] and Huntington Bancshares Incorporated [[HBAN]] for the Ohio pop, and Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] for the lotto play (stay small and remember, it’s only a game).

Best to you all, First Amendment scholars.

___________________________

Comments »

 

You’ll be Fortunate if You Can Keep Your Moustache Clean
______________________________

Just get in the manhole and try not to mind the company of the rats.  That is, unless you get hungry over the next couple of days. 

I think we are going to hit that dollar high in the next few days, probably by Wednesday, as this Greek PIIG drama doesn’t seem to want to go away.  That means we will probably see one final washout in the market as well, before a recovery.   

The good news is that the precious metals — gold, silver, and even more so platinum and palladium, are hanging in there and remaining rather unfazed by this most recent 50+cent appreciation in the DXY.   This is encouraging and may signal that the metals themselves will be turning before even the market.  

That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see one final reach down as the dollar heads to our target in the $80.20 range.   For gold, that might mean a test of the $1,030-40 area after all, and for silver, likely a break of the $16.00 mark.   I will be poised for that event — and on any rapid shakedown to these levels I will be adding egregiously to my [[AGQ]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] for certain, and quite possibly I may add a touch more Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and [[EXK]] as well.   I am holding out for one last purchase on the June $11 Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls too — hopefully in the low $3.00 range this time. 

We had quite a beard-curling day on Friday and I wouldn’t be surprised if we opened strong on Monday, only to give it all back in a nervous, feckless cowardly bout of trading that meanders thoughtlessly even unto Wednesday.

I say to you, now, do this:  Grab some cigars and some cheap bourbon and call five of your favourite (sic) comrades for a poker game below the city streets, under the comforting aegis of a two inch thick Neenah Wisconsin-forged steel manhole cover.    There, among the hollow echoes of  the moist, steam-filled tunnels and amidst the occassional squabble with the rats over the Cheez-it bowl, you will remain relatively unscathed — and perhaps more important, distracted — in the days ahead.  

Later, this week, we will comb out our moustaches and re-take our rightul places on the street-side of the manholes, where we shall kick various bears and their entourages down aforesaid (still) open cataracts, where they shall each reside again in bitterness, without the aid of kerosene lantern, cozy parka, or thrilling paperback romance novel.  

Off to price expensive cigars and cheap, but bracing bourbon.  Bless you, my friends.

___________________________________________

Comments »