________________________

Listen, I’m willing to give just about anybody the benefit of the doubt.  There are tonnes (sic) of confused posters on this site, as evidenced by the  jumbled and disjointed list of demands, points of order and general temper tantrums archived on Monsieur Le Fly’s two “discussion posts” this weekend.   Some of them offer contradictory recommendations, seeming to hate the government-banking cabal that’s all but run this country since the turn of the 20th century, but then recommending an even stronger government regime to take it’s place.

Folks, this is replacing the loan shark with the prison warden.  I agree that we need to break the cycle of supported failure that crescendoed upon us in late 2008, but 2000 page bills from “friendly” members of Congress do nothing but cement that cycle.  The first thing you need to do is force the banks to stand on their own.    If that means forcing a complete separation from the Fed– which was the original intent — then so be it.  If the Fed wants to “rescue” one of its lender institutions, let it do so without our tax dollar.

I am convinced, as you know, that we did nothing but “kick the can down the road” in 2008, and that TARP and all of these other remedies are doing nothing but setting us up for another voluminous group of failures.   This is because we let the same cronies that supported the massively corrupt Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac write the “reform” bills that instituted a system where mega-banks, those egregious leviathans, can be bailed out, ad infinitum, by you and I, rather than allowed to fail or break up as normal businesses that fail must do.

There were many silly (and frankly, Marxist) definitions of capitalism promulgated on these board this weekend, but the worst were those that associated capitalism with this recent spate of bailouts.  If capitalism is about anything, it’s about the creative destruction of old forms in order to allow innovation to drive progress forward.

This betrayal of true capitalism  is why the recent bailouts of dinosaurs like AIG and GM and Chrysler were so pernicious.   The breakup of GM would have freed billions of dollars in contract-bound assets and quite possibly sparked a whole new revolution in disaggregated auto manufacturing.  Allowing AIG to dispense its well-deserved CDS losses to Goldman Sachs may have hurt Uncle Warren a bit in his pinchy pockets, but think of the logjam in the wealth managment business such action would have broken up.

Think about it — AB Bernstein is probably one of the most respected names in money managment.  They are also the chief competitor in private banking to Goldman Sachs, in terms of research and institutional managment.   Why should they be penalized because they did the right thing?

It’s the wrong thing that it worked out that way, and one need not be a hippy despoiling a small park to realize that.

My argument with (many of) the hippies is that asking for more government to “regulate” such nonsense is just asking for more trouble.    Believe the fact that the large banks own Congress right now, and there single aim is to be dominant to the point where smaller banks are irrelevant annoyances.  Believe also that this aligns with Congress’s aims as well.  Why have to stretch your hand out to thousands of contributors when you can keep it to a neat and tidy ten or so?

Think about it.  The only way to break the cycle is to take the power to “Stick-Save” out of Congress’s hands.  Allow businesses to fail and you will create a stronger business arena from which to compete.  That’s real capitalism, and that’s what’s best for everyone — to whatever percentage they  might subscribe.

_________________

I’m thinking the hippies may be buying gold here, however because I’m seeing some interesting formations in the weekly charts.   Take a look at our friend the double gold bull ETF,  DGP:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note how our price maintained support at those two key support lines over the last three weeks?  That’s a good sign.   The amount of room left in the stochastics also tells me that this run is not over.   What’s more, our stop loss line is pretty clearly demarcated here.

You can see the same action in a more exacting stand alone stock, the famous ANVil of ANV.  As capricious as this stock is known to be, it also seems to be adhering to the same rule of law that DGP has been.

My best to you all in these harrowing times.

___________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI6-JzxV-_M&NR=1 450 300]

Plantation Boss Liberals’ Response Seems Less Than Pleased

_________________________

According to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released tonight, Herman Cain now leads the GOP field with a 27% share of the vote, with Governor Mitt Romney pulling second at 23% , and helmet headed Rick Perry falling from 38% last month in the same poll to 16%  in this latest effort.

I would say that Perry turkey is cooked, and its time to move on to the only man with a computer science degree and an MBA in the field.   A man with a plan (no matter how flawed) to limit the claims of the federal government on the capitalist incentive system that made this country great.  A man who has worked his whole life — in every trade from digging ditches to running multimillion dollar revenue companies.

And maybe most important, Herman Cain is comfortable in his own skin — without having to repair to it as his designated aegis or truncheon.   What a refreshing concept!  Good luck Hermanator!

___________________________________

And please, just stop with the Mitt Romney stuff already.  He’s the establishment candidate in the best traditions of other past fatted calf candidates, like Bob Dole and John McCain.  While I have great respect for Mitt’s operational background and vast business success, I cannot vote (in the primaries at least) for a guy who continues to back his moves in creating Romneycare, along with all the baggage attendant in that decision.

The voting public hungers for a conservative once again.   Herman Cain is thus far the only conservative candidate with the personality, wits and contacts to win the long race to the White House.

________________________________________________

I did get rid of the bulk of my QLD today, as reported in The PPT, but did little else.  I had a rather mammoth  order in all day for rare metal play QRM, but to no avail.  Luckily I already own a small horde of the name, but I was looking to add on a pullback today, to no avail.  I believe it ended up over 14% for the day.  I will continue my intense observations.

I continue to stalk select names in the rare earth (AVL)  and precious metal field (SLW, AG, EXK, RGLD, ANV),  even as this rally gets long in the tooth.  In the meantime I am also selling down some winners.  Not just QLD, but ARO and some other names that have gathered some moss.

Best to you all and to this blessed and still great country.  May she choose wisely.

_______________________

 

 

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA8QrOAghZ0 450 300]

___________________________________

I started selling some of my QLD horde today, only to turn around and plow those winnings into more AG, SLW and EXK.

Why silver?  Mostly because the happy silver mining family was bludgeoned like a prize veal on the night before the St. Anthony Festival these last few weeks, and I like the reversion to the mean theory — no matter how temporary that reversion might be.

You know I started accumulating the PM ETF’s,  GDX, GDXJ and SIL last week in order to capture some of the rebound that I saw coming from that sector.  Well this week I will concentrate more on individual names like the above in silver and RGLD, AUY and ANV in the gold mining sector.  I might also dabble in those insane brothers XG and XRA.

Just to give you an example of what I’m seeing here, and why I think there’s still a lot of room in these PM names, here’s my markup of the EXK weekly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Note how last week the price bounced off the long term trend line only to leave that long tail in a hammer?  And note also how most of the stochastics are headed north once again?  I am seeing that in a lot of these names.   Again, it can all change on a dime in no time, and believe me, I will be ahead of you, elbowing you in the chin as I run for the exits if it does.   But right now, the dollar is on our side, and the momentum is coming back to these names.

Let’s have some fun while we wait for the deluge, shall we?

Best to you all.

________________________________________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Uxc9eFcZyM 450 300]

Save That Schit For the Morning After

_____________________________________________________

A funny thing happened whilst I was away from the office today (for the second day)... I got murdered.   Usually when I’m out and about the market is pretty accommodating, like an Edwardian butler in white gloves and tails.   He  may give me a light workout, just enough to suffuse my brow with a light patina of salty perspiration, nothing more.   Even then, he’s there to hand me my plush towel and smoking jacket at the bell.

But today I was accosted by a gang of wiry Cockney longshoremen in baggy jodhpurs and nail-soled leather jackboots.   Reviewing my 50% position in gold stocks like ANV and silver stocks like — you name it, but SLW was down almost 15% today — they proceeded to bash me about the shoulder and ribs with brickbats and lengthy cords of hard salami.  They said something about leaving my face “intact” so there’d be no questions at work tomorrow.

Nevertheless, I speak to you from traction after suffering a near 7% bullshit beating today (don’t believe me? Check out XRA’s action today, and GFYS!), and am lying here in my linament-soaked bandages, waiting for a bounce to get out of some of these damaged names, as per the plan of yesterday.

A bounce, you say?  Jake, you addled fucker, you were thrown down one too many escalators today! How say you “bounce,” pray tell?  Well, here’s clue # 1 on the $SILVER commodity chart.  It’s been almost 15 months since we last hit the 200-day EMA, and yet we hit it today.  The RSI is oversold egregiously as well:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As for the $HUI today… well, you know the sad sad end of that story.  Like Brad Pitt’s relocated Northern Irish Provisional Army man, Frankie McGuire, said to Harrison Ford’s NYPD sergeant, Tom O’Meara  in the 1997  IRA potboiler, The Devil’s Own —

“Don’t expect no hoppy endin’, Tom.  It’s not an American story, it’s an Oirish one.”

Yes, and it appear’s our Baby $HUI ended up just as perforated as young Frankie did at the end of that movie.   What’s more, it looks like there’s still some room to travel even closer to Hell:

But don’t cry for me, Argentinians.   I am getting up and hitting back twice as hard, Chicago Politician-style.  In fact, I swung a haymaker at a bunch of AGQ this afternoon a little too early, at $175 and got stopped out.   I may grab some more on the open tomorrow though.   Also, respecting The PPT and it’s historically oversold levels, I dumped out of half of my TZA hedge and loaded up on a very large dollop of TNA at the close.   I may even add to that if we have a last blow off tomorrow morning.

Don’t let the Man get you down, folks.   Let’s hang together, as we sure don’t want to hang separately.

_________________

 

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qO66Rmi1Mw 450 300]

_____________________________________

I don’t know what’s going on, but it appears we’re about to be overrun by Viagra-popping leprechauns.   I’ve been buying some stuff back in drips and drabs but have been mostly waiting.  I added AUQ today and bought some more IPSU too. Both of those seem to be working well.  Meanwhile all the stuff I sold last week is doing aerobatics.  That’s annoying.

This is why we keep the core of course.  We don’t know what the bull is going to do… especially at these end stages.

I looked over all my charts tonight and there are quite a few looking like imminent breakouts.  These include AG, ANV, AUY, EXK and even — strangely — goofy old BAA.   Even GDX and GDXJ look pretty good, if you are into the ETF thing.   It’s our old friend the gold bug index $HUI that will provide the signal for me:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most of those names in the chart above should break out with the $HUI index here, but I wouldn’t worry about having to pile in.   There should be pullbacks on all of them after the breakouts, so you should have ample opportunity, if you want to be cautious.

Besides the above, RGLD and NGD are rather stretched here, and I will be offloading some likely tomorrow on any $HUI break.

Best to you all, and watch out for midgets with orange hair, green vests and knotty chestnut shilelaghs.  Those fuggers will wield those beatin’ sticks.

_______________________________________________

 

Comments »

______________________________________

I made good on my threats today, and took everything down to the 30% level on my personal accounts. 

I was up an average of almost 5% across a number of different portfolios and I finally said “enough is enough.”   I am keeping 30% invested, with the equal expectation that we could hit a precipitous downdraft in the precious metal sector at any time, just as we could shoot past $2,000 gold in an eye-blink.  

I care no more, as at this point risk avoidance has become very important to me.  If that means I miss the next $200 in gold on 70% of my portfolio, well so be it.   It’s very possible we could see a break past $50 in silver as well, and again, I’ll have no nonsense from any of you about it.   Really, I mean it.  Just shut up now.

And yes, that means I sold large chunks of AAU, AG, AUY, ANV, EGO, EXK, GDX, GDXJ, GG, MVG, NG, NGD, NXG, PAAS, RGLD, SIL and even beloved SLW.

And I blew out the rest of my NUGT as well.

And no, I am not abandoning the PM’s as a theme now, and won’t abandon them should they continue to skyrocket in flight to many more afternoon delights this late summer.   I am willing to wait for them, however, and to examine “other areas” whilst they frolic about like mad sturgeon on lady’s night at the Aquarium.

One of those “other areas” includes my old friend, Mr. Skiffles — SKF.  Along with his rebrobrate alchoholic brother, FAZ-tard, I believe Mr. Skiffles will be getting some nice exercise this second half of the year.  One of the reasons is the behavior of BAC, and now, most recently, the troubles of GS, and it’s Waspy rival MS.  

Another is the critical structural problems of Europe erupting again like plague boils on the carcass of its major banks.  This is a contagion that may yet again bolt across the Atlantic and may even explain the impolite selling vigor in some of our larger institutions.  Will the Fed be there to save their lying souls once again? 

Too big to fail, you say?   Maybe, but while “fail” might rhyme with “bail,” I wouldn’t be too sure equity holders won’t be left holding an empty bucket this time around.  Be warned, friends, storms approach.

Peace be upon you.

____________________

Comments »