Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

No Time for Puking…


There you stand, all “a-guts”with leftover Halloween booty, still feeling a little queasy from too much of that new beer you bought after seeing the “Most Interesting Man” commercial (you didn’t know it wasn’t Tecate… you just told the guy the guy at the bodega… “that Mex beer… you know?”)…

And now, this post-pumpkin Halloween Surprise and a half market.

Well, hold onto your grapes here folks, ’cause I think we’ve gotten an RSI scrape-out and bounce here on the [[HUI]] index, and I think the famed 38.2% fibonacci level has held as long term support in the $378 area.


This is significant because it looks like the price of gold is heading back up again– as mentioned Friday and again today– despite the best efforts of the IMF with their attempts at silencing the insatiable third world gold demand and despite even the recent dollar strength.

I think the overall markets may have one more wiggle before the lows are in, so you may have one more opportunity tomorrow to grab some miners before they begin their march back to El Dorado without you.

I like Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] , [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] for “bang for your buck” cocaine dependent trader types, and I think IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] are the best of the Jacksons right now.

As my nemesis, Hippy Red Neck Purdy has rightfully pointed out, [[BIOS]] has broken into that “free air” zone I mentioned in bloggish notes past.   I think it’s good to the $9.50 area in the near-term, fwiw.

Last, for you degenerate gambling types, the double ETF’s [[AGQ]] an [[ERX]] are looking like they are ready to start le bon temps roulletting like a bourbon filled Jeremy Shockey in the House of the Rising Son with Ragin’ and Andy Swan as his parallel-pounding wing-men. 

So hold your gourd, pumpkin eaters, this is seed-spitting time!  


Update:  For the sadness of All Saints

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvb65dCMjZI 450 300]

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Adding Bars o’ Silver


The Foundation of a Trustworthy Country

I have no time to speak, only to reiterate that Friday’s “non-confirmation” of the gold break (unlike the rest of the market) gave me the “green light” on the continuation of this secular bull in the precious.

I’d add Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] on this pullback if the accumulated bricks of it weren’t already filling up my garage to the chagrin of my crappy Volvo.  So I’m getting the next best thing, which is [[CDE]] .

For the remainder of the market, continue to watch [[UUP]] for your “tell.”

Stay golden, pony boys and girls.



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Burn this Post


Happy Halloween Surprise Mothah-Cluckas!

Okay, just burn it if we don’t bounce here. Here’s the amazing thing about this Halloween Surprise we’re experienceing right now… someone almost predicted it.

And I say “almost” only because he said we’d retest the lows today and then rally all next week, and obviously, only Fly and his Time Machine can check that part out yet.

Here’s the thing. He said this when we were hitting Wednesday’s lows, and he predicted yesterdays’ massive rally and today’s retest!  If he hits on all cylinders  with this prediction, we may have to give him his own blog.

But let me tell you Fly aint gonna like it.



Let me tell you what I’m doing right here and now… I’m “wading in.’   I sold some more of my options yesterday under the “too good to be true” axiom, thinking we’d at least have a little pullback from yesterday’s move.

Well I guess we did have something didn’t we?     Well, we more than tested Wednesday’s lows (again, as mystery guest predicted) and even filled that October 6th gap.   We are now on the march back, however tentative, and I’m adding to my PM’s here, and other Jacksons.

I already bot 200 more [[AGQ]] this morning, too early again, at over $55.   Dumbass, right?  Well, I’m not too worried about AGQ long term, truthfully.

I am also eyeing my “strength” Jacksons, including suddenly cheap silvers Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] and on the gold side Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] .  

Let the price of gold be your biscuit here… it’s not even coming close to the lows of Wednesday, which tells me this is one more false “whip” of our secular bull.   Don’t get bucked.   Those of you who were lucky enough to sell some yesterday (and even the day before) deploy cautiously, but wisely.

And with great vigor.   As your cautionary flag watch for $22.70 on [[UUP]] — that seems to be holding off the Huns for now. 

Best to you.

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Surveying the Wreckage


Hunched Men in Dark Vests Ran Wild O’er All the Field…


Just a quick word from York, as I’m on “clean-up duty” this evening and I’ve a whole Town Councill of village elders to hang from the parapets before I’ll see my cot.

If that’s not enough, I’m told there are three trebuchet that need re-stringing and I’ll be damned if I know where I’ll find good, cured cat-gut this late in the Northern English Autumn.

But all that aside, let’s look at what the sacking of today’s hard currency markets, by way of our friend [[HUI]] .   The pullback, as shown by the long term weekly, was something to see:


If you were thinking of taking a bite out of some Jacksons or other PM’s you’ve missed — like Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] on the gold side and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] or [[CDE]] on the silver side — you might want to watch that strong (61.8%) fib line as your trigger zone.

Worse come to worse, I think the 34-week moving average will serve as support as well.

We’re relatively oversold on the Jackson side, and The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]] has held up well.   Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] is probably good for a snapback tomorrow as well.   

 Last, it looks like Monsanto Company [[MON]] has had enough, and this $70 level has held up well on the weekly chart in the past.  Could be worth an “accumulate” at these levels.   Remember — this is a “grandchild” stock.

Ciao for now.


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If It’s All the Same to You…


I’ll just keep on, keepin’ on….

I trust nothing these days, save my Jacksonian positions.

I certainly don’t trust the restless trolls reaching their gnarled fingers from under their respective bridges to nip at my knee-caps.  Back off, trolls, lest I take you off at the fore-arms with my trusty scimitar!

Despite the above imagery, I was relatively unscathed today.   Down less than 40 bips.  Odd, no?

And guess what else?

I bot some more PM exposure, like a crazed bandicoot, hungry for shiny tin foil. Options, even. (Am I mad?)

No, not even peevish. Just “taking advantage.”

I bot back the 30 December $9 strike Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] at $3.70 and $4.00.

I bot back the 40 December $40 strike [[GDX]] at $5.60.

I added another 300 shares of [[AGQ]] at $56.33, just for the heck of it.

I am eyeing Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] which I still haven’t bot yet. I think [[UUP]] will have trouble tomorrow, despite it’s recent strong price and volume move.

Remember it’s “Ridiculous Bond Sale Week,” and let’s be careful out there.


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Mind “the Magic Gap!”

Mind this One, too.

Doesn’t it just seem like this tape is chock full of momentous milestones?  Not to bore you, but it seems like they keep coming, three a day — fire, flood and poor draft picks alike.

Sorry, that last was a shot at former NY Giant GM, Ernie Accorsi, long may his toupee moulder.  I’ll speak no more of trading the largely mobile and quick thinking Phillip Rivers for the clubfoot, Eli Manning, hurler of rookie interceptions deep into his sixth year on the job.

I’m not bitter, I swear.

But back to the momentous event of the day.   I like to call it “The Intercession of the Magic Gap.”   Back in the early days of October, 2008, when this whole gerbil basket of a market was falling to the feral cats, we had a Friday-Monday gap on the [[SPY]] of some significance.  It’s illustrated below:


 As you may recall, it got quite ugly after that.   However, the reason I illustrate this gap today is that I believe it’s serving as quite the psychological barrier for our market participants.   

Those bears, beaten and stripped of their 10k Rolex’s and cashmere mittens have long recognized this fillip as the “enough is enough” Maginot Line.    They believe this is where they can stand athwart history and cry “Stop!” in full W.F. Buckley (R.I.P.)  mode.

The bulls on the other hand, see this as a natural accelerant.   Like Right Guard aerosol on the open campfire, they know this region of “free air” should propel this bull even farther and higher once breached for good.    And to their credit, that was the case this October 14th and 15th, when we zoomed through that gap like a hot canoli through marzipan.

However, it seems that our gap has acted as something of a “CAP” upon reaching the north end.  Note we did exceed the roof, but not by much:


And my thinking is that this, too, is to be expected, as is today’s test of the uptrend line (also marked on the above chart).  

In fact, if I’m correct here, we are just consolidating this momentous level, and we should bounce off our long term trend line here on our way to the 1150-1180 range, where we’ll find our next consolidation point.  Here’s the BIG PICTURE I’m looking at, including “Gap/Cap:”


The great thing is, if I’m incorrect, you’ll have two things to give me yellow parsnip grief over — the Giant loss, and the Bull loss.  

But we’ll know soon enough, won’t we?  

Ciao for now, and Go Junkees!


Aside — This is AWESOME… (gotta love youtube):

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KR2CiceeWg 450 300]

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