There is nothing like “living for the moment,” and I won’t begrudge the staunchest of my conservative reader base a splash in Fly’s Pool of Carney Delights,  over on his blog and in the incredibly exciting “User Notes” section of The PPT  .   Let me assure you, ladies and gentlemen, there be some astute trading minds throwing Kruggerands around in that room.

That said, I’m sure glad I’ve got the bulk of my holdings in the JCHP, my friends, because I’m not sure how much time is going to be left in this “bring your own lava lamp” filthy 70’s-era hot tub party.    I think I already see some unpleasant objects of questionable birth rising up amongst the bubbles.  

First, I’ll draw your attention to our friend, Mr. U.S. Dollar.   He’s pretty much in “do or die” territory here, and frankly, I’m thinking we’re in trouble whether he strengthens or not.    Lookee here — remember our faithful dollar proxy UUP?

Well, heck if he’s not banging around down at the same December 18th lows that set the timer going on our next market plunge (which occurred about two weeks after the dollar started to climb again).   And here’s what’s worse… the dollar can continue to go down here, but I’m not sure that’s going to benefit our stock markets much, either.  

Why?   Well because there’s another bit of business the dollar keeps low if it’s behaving, and that’s our Treasuries’ interest rates.   If we show relative strength in our dollar, then foreign investors are willing to keep our debt.   But if the dollar keeps getting mauled here… well, those same folks might not be so kind to our lovely treasury paper.   Remember back when we first advocated  TBT as a Jacksonian pick?  Here was the chart:

We were expecting a nice move up, and we sure got it — in spades.   However, now the rapid run up in rate must give us pause with regard to how much longer the music can play.   Look at how far we’ve come since that last posting:

Bang!  All the way above the 200-day EMA.   Now you know I’ve been selling calls against my position here, in anticipation of a pullback.  Well, even as I expect a pullback, I’m just as ready to take a loss on those calls if I see this thing launch anymore than it has.  

Remember, TBT is my “Stock of the Year” pick in Rajun’s annual contest, and I continue to believe TBT is going to be the play of the next three to five years, minimum, thanks to the unwinding that will have to happen in our long term bond rates.   That said, high interest rates eventually take a bite out of stock prices, so we are going to have to be even more synched than ever with the JCHP. 

Remain vigilant my friends, and make sure you attend to RGLD.   I believe it’s the harbinger of our gold holdings’ future.   The other PMs will follow it’s lead, but it will likely become the star of this Jacksonian portfolio in future.

UPDATE:  I added another 1,000 shares to my SSRI holdings today.   I will add another 1,000 if I see further weakness, and then I will likely be “full up” in this name.

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		26-May	% Change
ANDE		$   24.95	6.90%
GDX		41.84	-0.50%
GLD		93.76	-0.73%
IAG		10.56	-2.76%
MON		85.25	-1.57%
NRP		22.75	2.43%
PAAS		21.64	1.03%
RGLD		45.38	2.53%
SLV		14.42	-0.55%
SLW		9.49	1.61%
SSRI		20.82	-4.19%
TBT		55.07	2.80%
TC		8.73	1.04%
TSO		16.73	3.08%
Avg %			0.85%

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A great day for Jackson, the posthumously mentioned President to whose name  I’ve appended the Core Holdings.   This other Jackson, I’m not so sure, as I haven’t heard much from him recently.  It’s quite possible he’s retired now,  having achieved the final goal of his career — having an African American pro-abortionist receive an honorary degree from Notre Dame!

Er,  I mean seeing an African American elected U.S. President of course! 

Oh who knows, anyway?  He’s smiling about something at least, which, as Aunt Martha will tell you,  is a good thing.

Today was surprising, to say the least, especially as I had been worrying my fingernails  all weekend contemplating the words of my oft-prescient asset manager friend Chivas on the Rocks.   To be specific Mr. Peanut Butter Jelly Time told us Friday — “Hit the deck, it’s (likley a) Gap down Monday!” 

Luckily for me and mine, I weighed that sage advice against the lowing of the PermaTard community also gibbering and capering all last week about the End Times and the Death of the Sun, like some primitive bushmen frightened by the eclipse.   Volcano fodder, I claim these pagans be, and so good contrarain indicators as well.  I held my ground, by Jupiter’s Stone, Mars’ gall bladder and Juno’s clavicle.

So whether it was donkey dumb luck or Irish stubborness (some might say those’re the same) that kept me long –save for the small position in SRS (which I won’t sell) and the hedges I’ve mentioned previously — I really can’t tell you.  However, that stance has served me well these last nine weeks, and I shant turn agin’ it until I see the curl o’ the wave. 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not seeking to get measured for a clown coffin, complete with “Bozo holes” in the base for shoe accomodation.   We are building the Jacksonian Portfolio for uglier days, after all.  But for now the ship sails in Carribean sun and we shall bask on her decks alongside the complimentary Hooter’s girls and chilled Dos Equis. 

Heck, we may even keep this [[SONS]]  and [[QSII]] position a couple of more days just for shizzles and the gizzles.

In the meantime, your Jacksonian Core Holding Portfolio is as substantial as the enameled decks of our sun bathing clipper ship.   Mind, it will serve you well when it’s time to batten down the hatches.  Today’s readings: 

ANDE — $22.87  (+7.32%)

GDX — $37.49 (-0.42%)

GLD — $90.36 (-1.30)

IAG — $9.76 (-0.71%) 

PAAS — $18.73 (+0.38%)

RGLD — $39.80 (-0.43%)

SLV — $13.58  (-1.38%)

SLW — $8.80 (+2.56%)

SSRI — $19.38 (+1.68%)

TBT — $50.50(+2.79%)

TC — $8.23 (+7.58%)

TSO — $16.70 (+0.60%)

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UPDATE: The Jacksonian Silver Plays are leaving the station (SSRI, SLW, PAAS).  I also bot 5k more of EXK for giggles (ie, NOT a Jacksonian stock by a long shot).

Caveat:  If you decide to purchase EXK your family will be kidnapped by gypsy werewolves one day after the Lone Ranger stops by to borrow your last silver bullet cartridge.   And you could lose your investment.

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No, not that Rachel Alexander, this one!

The 2009 Kentucky Oaks and now 2009 Preakness Winner!  Would that she’d only run in the Derby, instead of boot stomping the field in the “fillies only” Kentucky Oaks on the day before, and winning by some 23 lengths.  Ridiculous.

Of course, the incredible “last-to-almost-first” race run by Derby Winner Mine That Bird in the Preakness makes one wonder if we wouldn’t still have a Triple Crown contender had his Derby jockey Calvin Borel decided to ride him instead of winner Rachel Alexander (whom he rode to victory in the Oaks) in the Preakness.  

The argument could be made that Mine that Bird’s late race speed was not fully exploited by his new jockey, but who knows?  I guess the extra 16th of a mile in The Belmont Stakes in three weeks will tell the tale in the end.   Stay tuned…

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As promised, here’s the weekly returns on the Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio:

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Before you all get all loose wheeled and boot-rollicky because Timmah Geithner decided to extend the last few remaining TARP nickels  to carnival midway operators, portable potty lessors and, oh yeah — bullshit life insurance companies, let’s keep in mind it’s the Transports ($TRAN) that run this market.

And the Trannies look a little ailing …or to be less dramatic — fatigued:

Note how we’ve broken through the 20-day EMA that’s been support since the March lows?    After such a massive (9 week run) a pullback here to the 50-day EMA would not be unusual and in fact is a healthy circumstance… if  it’s just a pullback to the 50 day EMA.   Anything further and we could be talking a wholly different Devil Dawgian scenario.   

But   for now let’s let the Zone of Indecision be our guide since it so fits with our EMA’s and support levels.   Below that level, there be dragons I fear.    

The weekly $TRAN chart gives me pause too.  Check out this bearish engulfing somnabatch:

And right off the 34-week EMA too!  I expect we should flirt with that support level at least, and if we break through it, it could get far nastier.   I have already hedged my largest transport position — UPS, but in the event of a break of that support at around 2900, I will be getting short in everything save the Core Porfolio in a much larger manner.

Now let’s look at the $SPY weekly chart one more time for synthesis:

As expected we did pause in that 940-950 area, and are in fact retracing to what looks to be the 13-week EMA, which has been support for almost six weeks now.  Whether we head back to our second target zone (in the 1010 area) will depend on the bounce, or lack thereof, left in the 13 week EMA here.  

 Personally, I think we head back up one more time after a pause, but that’s almost as instinctual a call as it is a chart reading one.    In any case, we can continue to use the reliably signalling Trannies, as well as the above $SPY weekly, to provide us a rough guideline for the weeks ahead.  

Happy Preakness, and Victoria’s Day to our Northern neighbors.   I should be back tomorrow with a weekly update on the Core.   Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1Qvnixz1TE 450 300]

Not so bright, but a good guy to have around when the Fox is in the hen house!  (No really, that’s a metaphor… really!)

The Amex Gold Bugs Index (AMEX: $HUI) is one of my touchstone index’s for my precious metal portfolio.    The $HUI contains mostly unhedged gold mining companies and a couple of crappy silver miners (CDE and HL) , who don’t really serve as good representatives for the silver mining community (unlike Jacksonians SLW, PAAS, and SSRI). Jacksonians Core gold holdings [[EGO]] and IAG are members, however, along with “possible” new entrants GG and AUY.  The full fifteen components are listed here.

Because of it’s silver component, I find the $HUI even more useful than the ETF GDX as a precious metal miner index.   So let’s have a look at the daily and weekly charts to see where we are:

As you can see from the chart, the current daily is showing signs of a pullback, likely to the 20-day EMA at $323 to $325.   This is perfectly healthy — and in fact welcome — given the recent drive to the long term resistance line pictured.   I expect it won’t be long before we are above that line and into the free air described in the “breakout zone.”

As for the weekly:

You can see we have broken above the long term downtrend line on the weekly chart, and are also seeing a bullish cross on the 13-34 week EMA’s.   The midweek doji indicates we may test lower, but again, it looks like we are headed out of the consolidation zone soon.

Last, I annotated the long term weekly chart of SLW just for shits and giggles, to show where it is in relation to the $HUI weekly above, and to point out some obvious (from a weekly prospective) target zones.    One thing I would point out is the long term fib lines show the 38.2% retracement line at $9.02, which we tested earlier this week.   Again, it’s perfectly natural to have the price level turn away at that important point.   Given the strength of the $HUI,  however, I expect that $9.02 will not hold twice.   Viz:

I will try to get back later tonight to update the Jacksonian Core performance stats, but I have to run to pick up one of the boys from lax practice.    You know, “the aerobic baseball?”

Best to you all.

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Jacksonian Core’s Performance  for 5/14/09 was largely flat, with ten “down” positions keeping their losses in the pennies.  On the other hand, of the four stocks in the black today, two —ANDE and TSO– were up over 5%, making it a market neutral day overall.:

ANDE — $20.88 (+5.51%)

GDX — $38.05 (+0.29%)

GLD — $91.03 (-0.07%)

IAG — $9.78  (-0.91%)

PAAS — $19.20 (-0.31%)

RGLD — $40.56 (-0.10%)

SLV — $13.85  (+0.29%)

SLW — $8.84  (-0.11%)

SSRI — $19.89 (-0.22%)

TBT — $48.94(-0.71%)

TC — $7.63 (-0.90%)

TSO — $17.21 (+6.96%)

Have a nice evening, all.

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‘Twas a rough day in the trenches for most of the Jacksonian Core,  but then we turned lemons into lemonade by using the retrenchment here to pick up some final positions in the silver miners, including AGQ (Double Silver ETF), PAAS,  and SSRI.   Those buys were featured in my previous post,  if you want entry points.

   I did not add to my “favourite” (sic) silver miner – SLW, but only because I already have what I consider to be a “full position” in SLW, at least for now.    I may augment that position from time to time with options purchases (or sales in hedging situations), but I will likely not add any more equity in that name.

I also eschewed adding more EXK  (-5.89%) today, due mostly to it’s volatility and low float (less than 150 k shares traded a day).  This is a stock you want to accumulate when it’s asleep — its just too damn hard to pick up when it’s moving hard one way or another.    I reserve the right to add to EXK in more calm seas.

I also added some non-Jacksonian Core gold positions, some old, and some new, whose entries are also found in the previous post.    You’ll recall I purchased a beginning position in NGD just before yesterday’s close.    That stock actually held up well, so I decided to also add its “brothers” NG and NXG.  All of these have been showing favourable (sic) patterns in the last few weeks, and their purchase is part of a diversification strategy in the smaller miners.   It’s best to take this shotgun approach with these smaller guys, as you usually cannot pick up their exposure via the GDX ETF, which only purchases the larger cap issues  but you want to have a position in these flyers for when they start to run.   Some of them will double and triple, but in these cycle peaks, you never know which.     

In that regard, I also added to my position in ANV at the end of the day.    Like with SLW and EGO, I now have a full position in this name, and expect to see it run to at least the 61.8% fib retrace at $6.72 before breaking out to new 52-week highs. 

I also took this opportunity to hedge out my largest (and non-Jacksonian) position in UPS, and to begin a “foot in” purchase in SRS  as well. 

Non-PM Jacksonians did well and not so well today, MON was up a little less than 1% while its sister Ag play ANDE was off  4.67%.    If ANDE cannot hold above the $19.40 uptrend line here, it’s likely to fill that gap over a dollar below it.   As well, Jacksonian Core Coal play NRP (-4.89%) has been performing miserably here, even as coal operators have been consolidating.    This could be due to a (temporary) interest rate response, but I won’t recommend adding to this one until it’s back over the 38.6% retrace at $22.70.     Last, refiner TSO was largely flat–  off less than half a percent.

Without further ado, here’s the 14-Member Jacksonian Core’s performance (arranged alphabetically for your reading pleasure) for today:

ANDE — $19.79  (-4.67%)

GDX — $37.94 (-2.61%)

GLD — $91.09 (+0.42)

IAG — $9.87 (-2.66%) 

PAAS — $19.26 (-3.02%)

RGLD — $40.60 (-2.98%)

SLV — $13.81 (-1.49%)

SLW — $8.85 (-5.04%)

SSRI — $19.93 (-5.18%)

TBT — $49.29 (-2.08%)

TC — $7.68 (-4.00%)

TSO — $16.09 (-0.43%)

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A bloody good evening to you all!

(Warning! Extremely stupid video to follow, usher the children from the room)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teM_imSYGVs 450 300] 

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