There you stand, all “a-guts”with leftover Halloween booty, still feeling a little queasy from too much of that new beer you bought after seeing the “Most Interesting Man” commercial (you didn’t know it wasn’t Tecate… you just told the guy the guy at the bodega… “that Mex beer… you know?”)…

And now, this post-pumpkin Halloween Surprise and a half market.

Well, hold onto your grapes here folks, ’cause I think we’ve gotten an RSI scrape-out and bounce here on the [[HUI]] index, and I think the famed 38.2% fibonacci level has held as long term support in the $378 area.

This is significant because it looks like the price of gold is heading back up again– as mentioned Friday and again today– despite the best efforts of the IMF with their attempts at silencing the insatiable third world gold demand and despite even the recent dollar strength.

I think the overall markets may have one more wiggle before the lows are in, so you may have one more opportunity tomorrow to grab some miners before they begin their march back to El Dorado without you.

I like Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] , [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] for “bang for your buck” cocaine dependent trader types, and I think IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] are the best of the Jacksons right now.

As my nemesis, Hippy Red Neck Purdy has rightfully pointed out, [[BIOS]] has broken into that “free air” zone I mentioned in bloggish notes past.   I think it’s good to the $9.50 area in the near-term, fwiw.

Last, for you degenerate gambling types, the double ETF’s [[AGQ]] an [[ERX]] are looking like they are ready to start le bon temps roulletting like a bourbon filled Jeremy Shockey in the House of the Rising Son with Ragin’ and Andy Swan as his parallel-pounding wing-men. 

So hold your gourd, pumpkin eaters, this is seed-spitting time!  

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Update:  For the sadness of All Saints

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gvb65dCMjZI 450 300]

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The Foundation of a Trustworthy Country
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I have no time to speak, only to reiterate that Friday’s “non-confirmation” of the gold break (unlike the rest of the market) gave me the “green light” on the continuation of this secular bull in the precious.

I’d add Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] on this pullback if the accumulated bricks of it weren’t already filling up my garage to the chagrin of my crappy Volvo.  So I’m getting the next best thing, which is [[CDE]] .

For the remainder of the market, continue to watch [[UUP]] for your “tell.”

Stay golden, pony boys and girls.

 

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Happy Halloween Surprise Mothah-Cluckas!
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Okay, just burn it if we don’t bounce here. Here’s the amazing thing about this Halloween Surprise we’re experienceing right now… someone almost predicted it.

And I say “almost” only because he said we’d retest the lows today and then rally all next week, and obviously, only Fly and his Time Machine can check that part out yet.

Here’s the thing. He said this when we were hitting Wednesday’s lows, and he predicted yesterdays’ massive rally and today’s retest!  If he hits on all cylinders  with this prediction, we may have to give him his own blog.

But let me tell you Fly aint gonna like it.

“Developing….”

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Let me tell you what I’m doing right here and now… I’m “wading in.’   I sold some more of my options yesterday under the “too good to be true” axiom, thinking we’d at least have a little pullback from yesterday’s move.

Well I guess we did have something didn’t we?     Well, we more than tested Wednesday’s lows (again, as mystery guest predicted) and even filled that October 6th gap.   We are now on the march back, however tentative, and I’m adding to my PM’s here, and other Jacksons.

I already bot 200 more [[AGQ]] this morning, too early again, at over $55.   Dumbass, right?  Well, I’m not too worried about AGQ long term, truthfully.

I am also eyeing my “strength” Jacksons, including suddenly cheap silvers Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , [[EXK]] , [[CDE]] and on the gold side Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] .  

Let the price of gold be your biscuit here… it’s not even coming close to the lows of Wednesday, which tells me this is one more false “whip” of our secular bull.   Don’t get bucked.   Those of you who were lucky enough to sell some yesterday (and even the day before) deploy cautiously, but wisely.

And with great vigor.   As your cautionary flag watch for $22.70 on [[UUP]] — that seems to be holding off the Huns for now. 

Best to you.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS-jutv-rh0 450 300]

The New Official iBC Theme Movie?

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No, this is no well-deserved reference to the Red Sawx or the Twinkies, or even the misbegotten Mets.

It’s what I’ll be doing to pass the time until Christmas.   I’ll be staring at goats, shepherds and large carafes of homemade plum wine.

Because I’m looking at the Jacksonian Core Portfolio here — up 44.7% since May 1st and going higher — and I’m saying… why would I want to screw up a good thing, ovah heah, fretting about short term nary and sally?

I just got back from checking out all their daily charts, and… you know what?  They’re all overbought almost to a man.

Normally, I’d  be all “where’s my exit” on stuff like that, but… you know what?  See above.  

Goats, shepherds… plum wine til Christmas.   Abide.

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[For those of you who were asking in the last thread about “WTF are these Jacksons?”   I have listed them and their various monthly and “since May 1st”  returns, including possible pullback entry points.  BTW — Don’t even think of following me into these positions, as your extremities will undoubtedly blacken, and soon fall off at some embarrassing time.]

Name/			%		Portfolio	Portfolio
Ticker	2-Oct	9-Oct	Change		Value	Impact		Comments
ANDE	$        33.76	$        35.86	6.22%		$           10,827	0.40%		Next stop $39-
EGO	10.60	12.02	13.40%		$           11,263	0.90%		Broke $11.70, good rebuy on a dip.
GDX	42.76	48.29	12.93%		$           14,616	1.13%		$45.38 is 20 day for pullback possibility.
GLD	98.37	102.84	4.54%		$           11,827	0.32%		Pullback to $102?
IAG	13.25	14.61	10.26%		$           18,015	1.11%		Already taking off again here…
MON	74.67	75.77	1.47%		$           12,021	0.11%		Bounced off 50% fib retrace @ $73.50
PAAS	21.54	25.82	19.87%		$           15,508	1.85%		Broken out, look for touch @$25-ish
RGLD	43.29	48.48	11.99%		$           13,396	0.96%		Hit $48.65 target, forming handle here….
SLV	15.82	17.44	10.24%		$           14,167	0.87%		Overbot slightly.  $16.46 is 20 day.
SLW	12.07	13.86	14.83%		$           13,463	1.20%		Pullback to $13.25?
SSRI	19.55	22.44	14.78%		$           13,054	1.16%		$21.50 pull back before takeoff?
TBT	43.40	46.00	5.99%		$             9,163	0.33%		Near target @ 38.2% fib =$47.20
TC	11.37	12.80	12.58%		$           10,536	0.79%		Pullback to $12.30 for purchase
TCK	26.26	31.36	19.42%		$           30,259	3.52%		Officially BTFO.  Target $40-
Cash (000)	$        0.00	$      12.64	0.01%		$         12,644	0.00%		Same
AVG (weekly)			9.33%		$       210,759	14.66%
AVG (monthly)			5.67%		Actual cash
AVG (inception)			44.65%		on cash return	40.51%

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UPDATE:  In case you need the Jackson’s “daily look” — like we’ve got with the Pat Boone Page, I’ve listed them here:

The Andersons, Inc. [[ANDE]]

Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]]

[[GDX]]

[[GLD]]

IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]]

Monsanto Company [[MON]]

[[PAAS]]

Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]]

[[SLV]]

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]]

Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]]

[[TBT]]

Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]]

Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]]

And don’t forget about “honorary Jackson” Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , which I consider “one of the crew.”

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Yer Late, ya bastid!
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Things have been ripping around here, as the overstretched band of “no bidness” that plagued us for the first six months of the year has snapped back with a vengeance to “too much bidness.”

I am not crapping you, we are hiring right now, as we just hauled in about five new deals in the last month.   Now I’ve got to actually execute them which is going to stretch me thin all the way into Christmas.

Luckily, my portfolio is largely set.   I will nacker about here and there, but you know my thesis of “Baby $HUI to the Christmas Tree,” ovah heah, and I shall not stray much from it.

Right now, one of my favourite plays — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] looks to be ripping into the close, and the price of silver ($17.71 right now)  is hardly wavering even as the price of gold takes a mini-step back ($1,049.00).

Remember that Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] target fibonacci extension I put up a few weeks back after it’s breakout?  I said it would hit $10.70, remember?  Well, that worked out well, as it’s there and past, and I would look at that $10.70 area as a nice place to pick up some more shares of ANV, which is quickly becoming one of my favourites (sic)  — Jacksonian even.

Last, my beloved, if neglected Jacksonian stalwart, [[TBT]] .    I still own a metric shit tonne of this, even though I sold a bunch in the high 50’s some months back, thinking I’d buy back on a retrace. 

 Well, I was waiting for it to hit that $44.90 fibonacci level we had discussed, and it breached even that  so I said “ok, I’ll wait.”

I should have just bot some there, or at least averaged down.   Now, I’m doing a bit of a chase, and will attempt to refill my love gourds on a subsequent (hoped for) pullback to the $45.50’s area.

That is all for now, but if you want to discuss specific charts, I can throw them up this weekend at your request.  

Back to the salt mines.

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Great day for Pat Boone and friends… Pat looking on warmly with that glint in his eye, as opposed to the gleam he reserves for bad days, when his guitar strings break and he ends up beating Debbie and the wife.

Smaug’s Lair of The Hobbit’s late-chapter fame is a good metaphor for this market, if you are like myself and need metaphors to get you through the day like a nice semolina bread and head cheese sandwich at lunch.     The old treasure dragon from the Tolkien classic  signifies the danger implicit in this precious metal bull, and yes, maybe the greed, too.

So let’s try to remain cautious and harvest prudently when the corn grows high, whether by selling calls or taking our positions back a bit.  No need to be piggish and end up as dragon droppings amidst the mithril.

Only one chart tonight, and maybe tomorrow I’ll give you some new picks to augment my Jacksonian rockets (The Jackson Port ended today at 38% despite loss positions in both Monsanto Company [[MON]] and our ultra-hedge [[TBT]] ).

Tonight is a silver night, however, as my seven silver horses [[AGQ]] , [[CDE]] , [[EXK,  Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] , [[PAAS]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] were up a combined average of 9.19% today.  

These miners will continue to perform as silver tries to catch up with already “BTFO” gold, which broke to new highs today.   As you can see with [[SLV]] , there’s still a lot of room for silver to grow up in this cycle:

More later tomorrow after yet another morning meeting.   Remember — be cautious with the sleeping dragon, lest he make a tasty canape out of your chitinous carapace. 

Ciao.

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