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Green Shoots in Gold Fields?

Oh I had a great picture for today.   You shoulda seen it.   Larry Kudlow, nekkid, save for a  leprechaun’s chapeau and a human sized version of the parti-coloured (sic) NBC Peacock’s fan jutting from his ass-quarters,  carrying a wee pot o’ gold for the Jacksons.

Alas, Vincenzo is still in back of the cold room there, with the sand blaster and the servers.  You know that marinara gravy, it is recalcitrant.   So you’ll just have to use your imaginations.

On to today.  First, with regard to the new Jacksonian pick:  I still haven’t made it, but today I ruled out any natural gas plays.  If you are interested in the reason, please visit The Caveman Forecaster’s blog for a great post on the natural gas market, and be sure to read the comments that follow it as well.   Short version:  natty is just too volatile and not a great long term performer due to its seasonality, and therefore not a good candidate for long term value like a Jackson should be.

So we’re just going to have to nominate another candidate.  The door is still open for your suggestions.

Today, I have to admit I was leaning in the direction of the gold camp again (surprise!).   I told you in the post previous about my increasing interest in Gold Fields Ltd.,  which had an almost mystical meeting with it’s long term (ten year!)  61.8% fibonacci retrace today at the low of $11.42, from which it bounced nicely to close today at $11.58 (+2.75%).   I bot a starter position a little higher than that, at $11.67 today.

I also reiterated that the junior miners — as expected — seem to be leading the recovery from our pullback here.   For example the non-Jacksonian “Three Golden Horsemen of N”  juniors — [[NG]], [[NGD]], and [[NXG]] were all up 6.72%, 7.97 % and 4.29%, respectivley.   As mentioned I added to my stores of NG today at $4.94.    Oh yeah, another junior gold I own that did well today was [[ANV]] up 5.69%.

I also added to SLW today at the propitous price of $8.88, even though I own gobs of this one already.   I just couldn’t hold off with it below $9, and may add again.   Stylene of The PPT also added some SSRI at $19.41, and I was jealous even though I was “full up” in that Jacksonian stalwart already.   Some of my last purchases in SSRI were higher than that level!  

I think the silvers may have begun to feel out a bottom today as well, as you will see in the Jacksonian performance.   In fact, the precious metal component of the Jacksons  is now “market divergent,” although I’ve a feeling the market will catch up with us tomorrow.

Name 15-Jun 16-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 28.83  $ 29.04 0.73%   Another doji, but crawling back up the triangle.
EGO       8.28       8.51 2.78%   Nice junior-joining movement at EOD.
GDX     37.97     38.37 1.05%   Nice inside day, showing a change of direction.
GLD     91.10     91.93 0.91%   POG back to $935, nice step.
IAG       9.25       9.54 3.14%   Oversold yesterday, joined the juniors today.
MON     84.97     81.62 -3.94%   Sued by rival, still on trend.
NRP     22.99     22.44 -2.39%   38.2% fib @ 22.05 decent entry
PAAS     20.95     20.74 -1.00%   20.70 support held, still flabby.
RGLD     41.81     42.90 2.61%   Didn’t like EOD selloff… 41.50 in future?
SLV     13.83     13.99 1.16%   PO Silver still on 50 day EMA! – ($14.16)
SLW       9.25       8.92 -3.57%   Big support in the $8.50 range if we’re “lucky” 
SSRI     19.92     19.62 -1.51%   If this got to $19, I’d buy it one last time. 
TBT     55.49     53.59 -3.42%   Getting ready to buy back the sold calls at $53
TC     11.05     10.68 -3.35%   Support bounce at $10.40.  Still w “the market?”
TSO     14.98     14.98 0.00%   Not natties to replace, so don’t even say it.
AVG (daily)   -0.45%    
AVG (monthly)   -7.28%    
AVG (inception)   16.47%    

Unattended Addenda: No vids postable this week either,  but this is pretty funny fun that is funny (hat tip to the Big Swan).

Wednesday Morning Update:  Bot 1k more SSRI @ $19.02.   Bouncing on lower channel and support.

Wednesday Morning Update:   Of all the junior golds I mentioned yesterday, [[ANV]] is showing the strongest relative strength, which bodes well for it’s continuing performance as this market turns back up for us.    I may add a little here as well.

Wednesday Morning Update:   RGLD filled that gap from back on 6/12.   Currently (@ 12:23 EST) seems to be in “full recovery mode” at $44.23 (+3.10%).    This is perhaps my most treasured Jackson, as you know.    Hat tip to “Glud” for the shout out on CA’s blog.

Wednesday Afternoon Update:   I may have found the new Jacksonian.   I really like the pullback on [[TCK]]; especially when considering it’s pullback — almost to the  penny — to it’s 23.6% long term fib line (officially 14.52).   I bot a small starter here (1.5 k shs) @ $15.04.

Wednesday Afternoon Update:   Might do a whole post on this but I am starting to look at other “ten year fib charts” since I got such curious results from GFI and TCK today.  Just pulled up SSRI’s and it’s 61.8% fib was right at $19.01!

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SuperNova Gold

Adding to my [[NG]] horde here, with an additional 4k @ $4.94.  I like how it came back down and filled this morning’s gap and then proceeded to power on.    I think the junior miners may point us the way out of this recent pullback, so I will be keeping a close on them for all of us.

Note that recent Tim Knight short [[GLD]] also need to fill this morning’s gap at around $91.24.   A fill and bounce here would be very encouraging.  

Silver is also showing signs of an “inside day” candle formation , which would be good news for a possible end to this recent pullback as well.   As predicted, the $HUI is bouncing today, up about $2, off the trend line and the short term 50% retracement line.

All of these point to signs of a respite, as the dollar is off a bit as well.    Let’s be cautious, but judicious in our picks here.

Caveat: If you follow me into NG, your favorite poodle may be accidentally pepper sprayed in a police dog obedience class gone disasterously wrong.  And you may lose principle.

Update:   Even though I’m officially “full up” in the position, I just added another 2k of SLW at the lucky number of $8.88.   Serious (38.2%) fibonacci line here if it holds.    Thanks to whomever gave us the phrase “moth hands.”

Update:   New pick, bordered on the verge of Jacksonian, but too much geography risk, being located in South Africa with it’s “sorta” stable government and kooky neighbors.  Gold Fields International — [[GFI]].   Just bounced off it’s TEN YEAR 61.8% fibonacci retrace at $11.42 this morning.   That’s like a signal from above.   “Starter” position of 2k shares @ $11.67.



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Blankity Blanking Dollar

No pics today and probably for the rest of the week, until Vincenzo hoses the rest of the marinara gravy from the insides of the server box.  Today it’s just going to be a blank day, as that’s as good as any for a day when my language was pretty regularly depicted — old timey-style — by whirling spirals, jumpy stars, cock-eyed exclamation points and the 1950’s film noir tough guy utterance–  “blankity blankin’ blankity blank!!”

Only I wasn’t talkin’ about no dames, see?

No I was talking about the hard money portfolio that is your dear General Jackson’s.   We got shelled like Francis Scott Key’s famous banner at Fort McHenry.   Part of the reason was the undeniable strength in the dollar.   [[UUP]] , our proxy, was still spiking toward the end of the day.  The other part was the rush to the exits by all the Late-Comer Charlies that climbed aboard the magical precious metal bus last month only to depart in a frightened huff early in this one.

They must have forgotten that we’rein  a bull market right now, and it’s in the “money” that does not easily squander. 

They must have forgotten also that bulls, in the opposite manner of sleepy bears and their Siren’s rallies, try their damndest to take as few folk as possible with them on their ride to massive gains.   These last two days’ bronco riding are ample evidence of that.   So are we going to get pistol whipped off this bull like a bunch of mewling woosies,  merely because we’ve been bootstomped something sore?

No, we are not.   In fact, as I reported, I took this opportunity to grab some more double silver — [[AGQ]] today when it bounced off it’s long term 38.2% fib and it’s short term 61.8% fib in the $43.70 area.    I am prepared to add one more time should we see additional weakness tomorrow.    I am liquidating more frivolous holdings in order to ready myself.

In the meantime, you lucky ducks who were late to last months party are beginning to see some juicy bargains.   Nibble stealthily here, like a Persian guinea pig inside the mink lined trunk of a ’36 Bugatti, at each of the Jacksonians.   None is more attractive right now than SSRI, which, were I paying closer attention, I would have grabbed more of today, despite my already full plate in the name. 

As you know I’m particularly fond of silver and think it egregiously undervalued here, with gold once again at almost 66 times the price of silver.   So I will buy SLW, SSRI and PAAS first,  but note my maunderings below in the notes section of the JCHP Report — almost everything is now on sale.   I say that because we pulled back even further than I thought on the weekly and exactly to the trend line on the daily today (part of my reasoning for buying AGQ). 


Look at that strike of the trendline.   And also note the oversold condition of the stochs.    I’ll be looking to reap and gather tomorrow in the fields of Jackson. 

And here’s today’s bloody Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio results:

Name 12-Jun 15-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $    29.79  $    28.83 -3.22%   High top doji, second day of rest.
EGO          8.79          8.28 -5.80%   Could see $8 again, but good support @ $8.15
GDX        39.54        37.97 -3.97%   Strong support at 37.50, ideal entry.
GLD        92.17        91.10 -1.16%   POG only down a little more than $7 –
IAG          9.85          9.25 -6.09%   Egregiously oversold, closed on the ST trendline
MON        86.54        84.97 -1.81%   Low volume down day, still on ST trend
NRP        23.85        22.99 -3.61%   Still on uptrend, 38.2% fib @ 22.05
PAAS        22.04        20.95 -4.95%   $19.80 is the 38.2% retrace.  Support @ 20.70
RGLD        42.64        41.81 -1.95%   Low volume down day, stopped on 13 wk EMA
SLV        14.63        13.83 -5.47%   PO Silver on 50 day EMA right now ($14.14)
SLW        10.05          9.25 -7.96%   LT 38.2% retrace is $9.00 — prime entry
SSRI        21.95        19.92 -9.25%   Up to $20.27 in AH.  That’s the trend line.
TBT        56.59        55.49 -1.94%   The least of my concerns.
TC        11.76        11.05 -6.04%    $10.81 is 38% retrace.  Tapped today.
TSO        14.98        14.98 0.00%   Have you thought of his replacement yet?
AVG (daily)   -4.21%    
AVG (monthly)   -6.76%    
AVG (inception)   17.02%    

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Gold for Your Ice Cream Cone

Mmmmmmmmmm….. Deeee-licious!

Looks like our friend “Baby $HUI” — the Amex Gold Bugs Index is just about to pull back to our second line of resistance that I’d plotted out some week and a half back.   If you recall, the chart looked like this:


In the above, we’d hit that magic $400 barrier and come back already to our first point of resistance.  Well, as of late last week, we’ve come very close to that second line and will likely hit it sometime today (Update: We’ve hit it and then some at $341– next stop could be our 13 week MA at $337.30).   Therefore, I think we need to keep our eyes open for a bounce here at least back to that first resistance level at $375.    Here’s where we are today:


Because of the relative strength of this sector, I think it will continue to lead, and show it’s bull head before the rest of the market does (if in fact the rest of the market continues with its bullish ways).   Short synopsis, this is your only confirmed bull in the market right now, with most names riding above their 200-day MA’s.   Therefore, this is where you want to play for fun and profit, no matter with what specie you purchase your ice cream cones.

There are a couple of POS miners that have yet to truly participate in this rally, and that may be because they are POS, so take this next chart with a kiloton of salt.   It’s the old dog, [[CDE]], which has dropped back down to attractive levels again, and is down over 5% as I type this.  Keep a tight stop here, but I continue to think this old hag still has a chance to come close to her 200 day MA at close to $30 here.  Here’s her weekly:


One last note — be cautioned as [[UUP]] is back above it’s 61.8% fibonacci line of $24.06 as of about 9:40 am this morning, which could spell at least temporary trouble for the markets in general.   In the case of this PM bull, I believe it smells of  opportunity.  Best to you all.


UpdateBarron’s weekend pick  and Jakepick (non-Jacksonian) [[NG]] showing her mettle, up almost 8% in a down market.  I own shares, but will likely add to weaker names.  [[RBY]] in particular looks good here.  Word on the PPT is that it’s a possible [[GG]] takeover.

Update: @ 1:57 pm, $HUI is right on the trendline right now at 334, give or take.   If UUP folds over, this could be an excellent purchasing opportunity.  Keep a gimlet eye!

Update:  Bot 1k more [[AGQ]] @ $44.01.

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