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Today was rough for me,raging metal bull that I am.   Despite all my sell downs, all my hedges, and all my short ETF’s, I was still up 1.3%today.  I could hardly believe my eyes when I looked at the end of the day.   But my pain is the deep distress of opportnuties lost.   I did a quick back of the envelope and realized that, had I had my full compliment on (i.e., the pre-January 2011 allocation), I would have been up some 4+% today.

So all I did all day was fret over the direction of the dollar.  As you are well aware, it continues to melt like a stick of bacon fat in a San Bernadino forest fire.  I keep thinking that the evil Bernanke buck has got to bounce soon, even if just for a little jaunt higher, so I can dispose of these cumbersome hedges and swing back into the market like Tarzan yelling for his elephant brethren. 

Luckily for me, around three o’clock today, I had other distractions to take my mind off the market, like a possible bluebird deal flying in my door from the lovely state of North Carolina, and– oh yeah —  Mrs. Jake calling to inform me she was in an auto accident.  I think this was maybe her (second? third?) intersection collision.  I really am starting to believe she thinks she’s driving a Bradley Fighting Vehicle instead of a well turned out Eddie Bauer Excursion.  Fortunately, this one’s getting a little long in the tooth anyway, and the minor damage she did is reparable.    Things will hold out until her birthday, I figure, and then I can surprise her with an IED-resistant Humvee or something in that “safe for all” category.  I believe my older sons will enjoy swinging the fifty cals back and forth in efficient cover arcs.

To get to it before it gets too late, I think we’re on the cusp, here.   We broke, if ever so slightly, the great bogey barriers of 12k on the Dow and 1,300 on the SPX.  That means we run like salmon for the fish barrell, or we mark a nice rounded top, whereafter we plunge into  deep despair. 

Well,  you at least.

[How could I ever despair, after all, when I’m working on my brand new laptop, with special “soopah secret” fingerprint scanning technology, so I can get into my blog-posting area and The PPT without ever uttering a single “Open Sesame?”   Aye, with only thelightest  swipe of a forefinger?  It’s a James Bond world we live in, I tell you, and I think my index print has been forwarded toErnst Blofeld for use in his underwater lair.]

Today, the whole enterprise of JakeGint Consolidated Commodities lies on the edge of a knife.   Will the dollar bounce, or continue to plummet?  Perhaps our chart from the other night can shed some light.   The following is pretty simple, either the dollar holds this line of defense, or it’s off to the races, at least for the PM hawgs and other such wolverines.  Attend to the trend:

Not dissimilarly, or coincidentally, silver is at the same juncture as the greenback, save opposite for effect.   If it continues to break out here, I will have no choice but to recommit, in large tusked porcine fashion, to all my silver longs once again.   The only thing I’ve bought recently has been SLW, and that was on a buy stop at $29.05.   If nothing else comes to Papa, then Papa may have to go to it.  Here’s your target:

  

You have your orders… carry on.

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(Due to a very late night at the office, the only correspondance tonight will be Haiku)

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Dollar bends to lows

Chuck and Fly Hoist Silver Cans

Toasting the Bernank

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Bernank spreads the gelt

Like bread upon the water

No Cat calls, Kettle.

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True Gelt responds not

To Aegypt’s mad ovation

For hunger and pain.

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We’ll wait this week out

To see which way the wind blows

Toward, or away.

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No changes, today, save an addition to my QID horde and a sale of one quarter of my remaining ANV, on strength.  I may consider more DXD tomorrow, depending on what the dollar does.  I may say “no mas,” too.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_qHP7VaZE&feature=related 450 300] Why Democracy Always Fails in the Middle-East
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The Cradle of Civilisation (sic) has been giving us quite a bit of trouble recently, wot? First we had 20 years of taming Mesopatamia, and now, in the stomping grounds of old Ramses himself, the crowds are making noises like they are going to throw off the yoke of old Catcher’s Mitt Face and his various progeny, including son Gamal  (although I give Gamal Mubarak some kudos for marrying what has to be the best looking woman in Egypt, if not the whole damn Middle East); much like the Mesopatamians (with not inconsiderable help) gave the gallows treatment to Sadistic Saddam in Iraq.

Well, don’t bet on it, Tutankhaman. 

Call me cynical, but I think when you are talking about corrupt, massively bureaucratic  7,000 year old civilizations, shit doesn’t just “Viva la Revolucion” into a new happy-dappy government — even the meta-Islamicist kind– without the intervention of many, many well armed troops, preferably of the non-Aegyptian variety.

That’s right folks, I said it.   If anyone is going to take this ancient and corrupt shit-show on the Nile, it’s going to have to be heavily military-backed.   And guess what?  Last I looked, the defense ministry of Aegypt was taking down $2.5 billion pe annum in prime U.S. gelt as payment for the Sinai Accords some 33 years ago.  Payments that are — by contract — slated to be paid IN PERPETUITY!   You think that’s a payday anyone in their right mind — no matter how “Islamicist”– is willing to forego? 

So with the Tea Party Congress coming into power, and eyeballing crazy-assed guarantees like that, what better way to illustrate to the world the value of that BRIBE than by showing just how fragile that geography really is?  And oh, by the way?  Our new Congress has also been grumbling  (cough, cough- Rand Paul! — cough!) a bit about our subsidies to the State of Israel — another three billion per, and, coincidentally also contractually guaranteed in those same Camp David Accords.

Cynical?  Yes.  The way the Company has been operating the Middle East since it morphed from the OSS in the late 40’s?  Um, also affirmitive.

So we’ll see what we shall see, but let’s not have any talk about cutting Aegypt or Israel’s money lines just yet, shall we?   We wouldn’t want that awful Muslim Brotherhood to actually have to take on the trappings of rule, and really deligitimize Radical Islam once and for all, would we?

What would we have to talk about around the Danish bar, right?

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All the rest of you pikers can attend Saint Francis University  about how Aegypt “caused” Friday’s much predicted cataclysm.  For the last time, Aegypt was merely a convenient trigger–  an trader’s excuse for selling of a broadly overbought market.  The Ben Bernank has powers of levitation which are considerable when mixed with green ink and grey paper.   They are not, however, immortal powers.  Truth be told, they are more mortal than man.

So wise up.  We’re in for a nice sell off here.  If we get some levity tomorrow morning, don’t be stupid.  Take that as you cue to lighten your load.   And no, I’m not getting back into gold or silver miners either, although I am allowing my buy-stops to hit, like I did with SLW the other day at $29.05.   My EXK buy stop was not hit, mind you, though I expect it will be still.

As I said on the previous page, I may be wrong, and I may be waiting too long to pile back in.  But having the scars of many an early move on my back, I will hesitate here.  I can afford it, after all, having outpaced the majority of the market by doing just this — riding the precious bull for all it’s worth, while avoiding major pitfalls as well as possible.

Best to you all.  Wait for the signals.

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And by the early sixties, so was the Lone Ranger
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Enjoy your frapjous day, and bank your daytrade capital returns, bottom callers, for you called the bounce correuctly (sic).   Silver was oversold today, and as a result, the metal enjoyed the slightest of rebounds along with gold (more muted) and even some of the larger cap market.  

Behold the egregious oversoldedness (sic) and note what my crystalline bawls tell me  of the future:

The odd thing is,  the crapulous dollar continued to struggle on, not quite selling off, but definitely not rising like the phoenix either.   It appears besides making soothing statements, Chairman Benjamin is loosing pillowcases of feathers upon this market, excoriating it to “Fly! Fly!”

Alas, a passel of loose feathers doth not make a winged bird, or even a flightless apteryx.   No, it looks like the dollar, too, is oversold, and perhaps seeking a final dip before strapping on it’s BAR for a slog back up the hill:

 And EXK was purchased today by some (though not by me)– a nice pickup at $5.40 if you got it there.  I think it could even go to $6.00-$6.20 on the second day of a bounce.  I will sell more of my stash there, if it gets to that point.   Silver stocks, too, will take on a familar sheen if the dollar rebounds here, as scheduled.    And while I felt comfortable today grabbing some of the much more oversold (and higher quality) SLW at $29.03-.05,  I still contend that  EXK must complete its journey:

Keep this intuition in mind:  one does not buy the metals happily after an egregious pullback.   Rather, one buys them grimacing, and with chitinous trepidation. 

When you feel that grippe, then let it rippe.

Be well.

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You See Kid, It’s All About the Proper ‘Stache
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Well, the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets lost… and many a friend, relative and associate is in mourning tonight.  I can almost feel their pain.  It’s tough to get so close to the Superbowl and then lose in a disjointed effort like that.  But the Jets should take heart, as they’ve a team to build on.   As well, the Steelers have indubitably the best defense in the league, and perhaps the best coach.  

 And let’s face it,  for the Jets to win a third playoff game on the road would be considered by some to be a near miracle.

I say “near,” because of course my own beloved Giants have performed that 3-Road Game Playoff Win feat, and topped even that by beating “the Unbeatable” New England Patriots.  You remember the Giselle Bundchen-related Patriots?  The team who had gone unbeaten in every game in the 2007 season…

Except the one that counted, I mean.  Heh.

No matter, the industrious Steelers pulled off the same carny trick the year after, albeit against a far inferior opponent.  Nevertheless, Mike Tomlin is great, Ben Roethlisberger is a loathesome pig, “Go Packers!”  and let’s move on…

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You want to know what I think the dollar is doing here?  I think it’s getting ready to rumble.  It’s been drip-sell, drip-sell, drip-sell for weeks now, and yet gold and silver have been pedaling in air, rather than soaring.   That means gold and silver, in their heavy, shiny brains know something.   This is what I think they know:

We might get a scrape below $78.00, but I think that’ll be the dog and the frog.  You’ll know the dollar is done diving because the market will crack like a ten week old egg left over from a third grade science project.  It’ll be smelly.  Are you prepared?

Everyone is asking me when I’m going to buy you-name-it– SLW, EXK, GDX, ANV, EGO etc., etc. 

Listen to me when I tell you that when its time to buy these things again, you will NOT want to do so.  Hear me?  Stop being so damn anxious and go have a clove cigarette and a warm paraffin foot bath or something.

In the meantime, here’s where I see EXK, you greedy little pigs, you:

Now remember that’s a weekly chart up there, so things will move slower than we’re used to seeing on the daily, and that distance to the buy is a site farther than it looks.  It might be three or four weeks from now.  So chill.

And here’s a bonus for you dynamite-strapped rocketeers out there.   If you try this, play it small because it’s wilder than boar hog afflicted with a case of cannibal crabs.  You see how much it was up on Friday?  Well don’t believe it.  This suckers going down just like it did last time.  Here’s my take:

That’s all for now.  Play tight and play defense this week.

Good luck to the Green Bay Packers, a real “good guy” team.  I might even root for Pittsburgh, but then, I have a daughter, soooo … no.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gekaEzqj5g 450 300]

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Sold to you.

Pinless hand grenades?  Sold to you.

Hissing canister bombs?  Sold to you.

Marc Jacobs handbags full of poisonous asps?  Sold to you.

You get the picture.  I’ve given you my take, and yet you still insist I make purchases with you.   I speak of funnels, and threshers and even Evile Clammes, and yet you insist I join you in your cash allocating dervish.

Sir, I will not.

Here is what I think will happen.   I think we’ll probably bounce here.   We’re oversold, after all.   In fact, if we fill certain gaps I’ve got circled on my charts (don’t worry Bruce, The PPT will know first), I may even snatch a couple of shares of PM lovelies like SLW and EXK.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  The Bigs need to move their bowels here, and in so passing, allocate their shares to the fevered masses.   They don’t do that all in one day, or even one week.   I suspect they will take this market up one more time, confirming the “buy the dip” stone-bound rule for all who lurk in Dunkin’ Donuts seeking free shots of hot hot espresso with double whip.

Then they will enjoy fresh bacon for weeks, lightly salted, lightly peppered, before taking us all back back to the Funhouse one last time.   Wouldn’t it be great if you had some cash on hand for that last ride?

Good day, sir.

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