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That’s right, folks, I’m just going to keep steepening the metaphorical curve until this market breaks, no matter how ridiculous I eventually become.

Don’t worry, “SuperNova” is still some weeks away, and for now we will talk about silly bulls idling about in a bucolic wheat field only to be set upon by a near-silent International Harvester Combine with razor sharp blades that will quickly render them into so many two and a half inch ribeye’s ready for dry-aging.

Again, despite myself, my portfolio edged up again today, a half percent, sparks flying and hedges hedging.  And weirder still, my half and one-third positions (thus far) in QID, SDD and SDS were all off rather minimally today.  In fact, SDD was even up a tad.   None of this action is making me think my thesis is wanting, though I may be stuck waiting while we grind to the end of this current cycle.

The only hedge that drew significant blood today was the one that had no counterpart (unless you count my small core position in SLV), which was my one half position in ZSL, the silver commodity ultra-short ETF.    Everything else was offset, including my SLW sold calls, which were outpaced by the underlying stock’s gains. 

Many of you chided me today about silver having a good day, but in your heart of hearts, you saw how the price struggled, and how my two favourites, SLW and EXK struggled to retain gains.   This is not the action of a bull ready to take off, but rather one that is seeking a siesta.

Make sure you have cash on hand, and please, stay out of the cornfields, Children…

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Despite my adopted team, the Green Collar Jets, winning an improbable playoff victory over the hard-to-like Tom Brady Patriots this weekend, I am in full choler right now, due to the exigencies of hardware failure. I’m downstairs posting from the kids’ computer tonight because my trusty Sony Vaio has gone “Vaio (sic) con Dios!” on me, and seems to have left the station for that great electronic synapse farm in the Sky. I guess that last trip out to California was just too much for it.

Suggestions are welcome, as long as you do not recommend I purchase a Craapl.  I have no interest in seeking out a new career in fashion and design, thanks very much.

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I expect many of you — my more loyal readers — are already in the bunker due to my ample warnings over these last two weeks.   Many of you, however, resemble the man at the top of the page, and love The Funnel so much that you’ve fashioned special Funnel Hats to celebrate itscoming, and your imminent dive down it’s narrowing throat structure.

Well, the original man with no heart —Steve Jobs — just declared he was going on another Health Holiday, most likely so he can rendevous with the Mother Ship and pick up the next space alien technological doo-dad for Craapl, and therefore kick Bill Gates’ & Steve Ballmar’s asses with greater alacrity.  That also means the market is now free to sell off with great vim and vinegar.

Got your QID yet?  I’ve only put half of mine on, as planned.  I think tomorrow might be the day for the rest, however.

Meanwhile, back at the old gold mill, I have sold down to a comfortable level, and I continue to believe we will see a pull back in the 10-15% range off the recent highs.  That could easily bring us to $1,300 or less on the POG, and we all know silver likes to make gold’s price moves look kittenish in comparison.   As a result, I have even purchased some ZSL to warm the bed I’ve made for myself.   You should consider trimming your EXK and SLW and PAAS, for sure, and please get out completely from the AGQ, before you hurt yourselves.

What’s that rumbling you hear from my garage?  Why yes, it does happen to be my 12-cylinder dual cammy (I have no idea what the means) slung back black coupe FAZ-mobile idling in the drive.   I haven’t taken it out for a spin yet, but I will be eyeing the BKX with great interest, JPM “grande” earnings aside.    Heck I may even break out a bowl of Skiffles for my morning repast tomorrow. 

It’s been a while hasn’t it?   And yet, somehow… it just feels right.   

Remember the plan, now Funnelites.  The plan is to have cash to invest in this PM bull for the long run into dollar implosion.   That emphatically does not mean you play “long-only” for the duration.   You should have a core in store, but right now is not the time to be a hero.   Take a break, take a vacation, or better yet, move to North Carolina.   No need to make life any more stressful than it already is.

Best to you all.

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Man,  I hate days like this.  Even when I hedge my portfolio and sell down to my core holdings, I hate to see my beautiful PM’s get whacked like a homicidal Joe Pesci character in a typical Scorsese mafia flick.

But this is the world we live in when we choose to invest in the biggest bull in the last ten years.  All we can do is strap ourselves to the mast, make sure our cargo is well stowed (in hideous questionably weurthy (sic) cash), and ride out the 60-foot waves.  Right now, the beauty of beauties — SLW — is getting cranked like a Model A Ford with battery troubles.  Did you sell down to your core?  Do you have hedges in place? 

Still hurts, doesn’t it?  Well, going forth all guns and vinegar butter hurts even more.  So get hedged, now.

Today, I actually got some short ETF’s.   I purchased QID, SDD, and SDS — half positions in each.  I expect I will add more.  I also picked up several thousand shares of ZSL.   

I’m off from the West Coast… will patch back in tonight.

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I immediately went down to see what’s been keeping Danny from blogging…

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Since I was experiencing a cataclysmic Vitamin-D overproduction cycle out here in SoCal, the last sunny place left in America, I decided to come inside and see what the heck was going on with this market.  For one thing it closes at 1:00 out here, so the hippies have many hours with which to purchase pot and snugly pack their bongs before the 6 O’Clock news.  Odd, no?

Well, it turns out that despite my hedging and raising large amounts of cash, my portfolio continues to metastisize.   In fact, metaphorically, it looks like a large Engine No. 9 freight locomotive going down the slope of Mt. Pilot, with all it’s air and hand breaks on full stop.   I’m showering enough sparks off the railbed to tetch a bonfire, but I’m still moving forward.  

I don’t mind giving up some of that opportunity cost, however, because we’re trying to be responsible with our cash over here at the JakeGint Blog of Low(er) Grade Mental Disorders.  Here, we go by the semi-paranoid thesis that Mr. Market is trying to steal your wallet every second of every day.   So if that means we don’t partake in his reindeer games to the fullest extent allowed by California law, but we return home with all ten of our fingers attached and facing in the proper direction, then we’ve properly schooled you in the tenets of risk management.

Right now, reindeer games are accelerating already large wins in such Dogberts as FTK, QSURD, ENTR, and AVL.  If you have not taken profits in any of these, I would at least recommend a relatively tight stop.  As well, while the miners are beginning to stall (as predicted), other Jacksonians, like MON, ANDE, TCK and TC continue to push along oblivious to the divergences and breadth problems we’re seeing popping up all over.

And here’s my real problem… the Gold Bug Index $HUI has broken through some significant support here (the 20 and 50 day EMAs) and is now trying to rally back above those levels again.  Here’s the thing… I don’t think it can until it tests the 200 day EMA again like it did in the last major cycle down, back in July.  For those of you who are not as concerned about the PM market, a breakdown in the $HUI will usually give you 5 to 10 days to get the heck out of the rest of the market too.  

How long will I hold to this thesis you axe (sic)?   Until we clear that green line atop the circular bodies on the right in the above chart.   Only then will I say, “You have passed the test, $HUI, well done!”

More live pics of Danny to come…. best to you all.

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I’ve got an extremely busy week ahead of me, so while I will attempt to log in as much as I can, I don’t expect I shall be my usual garrulous self.   I’m traveling out to Southern Bustopia on the West Coast, and I hope to be safely wheels down before the airport bonds go teats up, and the baggage handlers start throwing Molatav cocktails at the TSA while storming the control tower.

I expect I may end up having to be Hummer’d out — a la “Mad Max: The Road Warrior” — so I’ll be bringing several ingots of .999 silver to pay for the petrol and extra ammunition.

As far as that goes, this week may be a good week to trade some silver in for consumer goods like eye black and B.A.R. rounds, if you are so inclined.  A nice plow and a brace of oxen wouldn’t hurt to hold in reserve either, if you’re agriculturally minded.   You see, with regard to precious metals, I think we may see a dollar respite here, so I sold another 10k of EXK on Friday, bringing my position down to about 30% of my original peak.

I also divested myself of some IAG, some GSS, some CDE, a touch more SLW,  half of my PAAS, and about 30% of my ANV, with the remainder of those both being hedged, along with hedging most of the rest of the portfolio I didn’t choose to sell.   I now have egregious amounts of cash with which to buy what I believe will be a forthcoming dip in the precious markets that I believe we’ve been holding out for since early December.

I may be wrong, and if I am the first thing I will be purchasing is AGQ.   I will certainly let you know.

God bless you all, this night and always.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cnAfSsk2wc&feature=fvw 450 300]

A Gentleman

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Interviewed above is a man who is arguably one of the best rock and roll musicians of all time, with an indelible legacy that will never be questioned by the more serious students of the genre.   And yet Levon Helm is also indubitably a Southern Gentlemen in the truest sense.  Born to poor cotton farmers in an Arkansas town just west of the Mississippi, he was brought up with impeccable manners, respect for others, and a healthy fear of God.   The phrase “salt of the Earth” is cliched, but applies here if anywhere.

Note the patience, humility and even respect he allows the over-earnest newsdork interviewer?  A teevee journalist who, much like myself and most of my urban Northeastern brethren, reveals a contrasting self-important air of arrogance that far belies his functionary status?   It’s awe-inspiring.

Hell, I’ll say it– Levon is inspiring.    And his example and those of many of his generation is one of the major reasons I wanted my kids to grow up down here.   I wanted them to meet people with the quiet American dignity you see in this clip.  People like my children’s grandparents, and their grandparents’ kin from the Appalachian regions.   Because make no mistake, even in the South, folks like Mr. Helm are slowly becoming a rarity.

Every day, therefore,  I will strive to be more like him– not in talent, of course, but in pursuit of that humilitous honorability — as I believe that a most worthy goal.

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On the trading front, I covered a large number of my silver sold calls today, specifically SLW, PAAS, MVG and EXK, all at 35-55% profits.   I did this mostly because I think we will have a short term rebound here.   Maybe 2-5 days.   I find it hard to believe we are done, however.  

I think the noobs who piled into the PM markets in December still need to be shaken like rats running from the terrier.   What fun is a bull, after all, if it’s weighted down by noobs? 

I kept almost all of my gold hedges, not because I don’t think gold will bounce as well, but because the silvers are more volatile, and I have alloted the gold calls (sold) a bit more rope.   I will likely step out of them tomorrow morning.

The dollar is ramping, and it may return to our old mid $81 resistance levels once again.   I am preparing, and prepared.   You should be as well.

Lastly, if you are looking at the rare earth’s we’ve dabbled in recently, you should think of paring some here.  I expect a larger market correction to be upcoming, and that means the hottest stocks will be the hardest slapped.  Take note on AVL, as well as REE and MCP if you have any (I’ve neither).

Best to you all.

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