[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi1WXYHHc2s 450 300]

___________________________

Welcome to the other side of the Catherine Wheel that is this current Precious Metal Bull Market.   This is the side that crushes your limbs and threads your guts around a spindle-rod of molten steel.  This is the side that dares you to jump to end the pain.

Seems a long way from last week, doesn’t it — when airy elation suffused your soul as a result of of daily 6-10% moves northward in your positions.   You felt inner calm, you felt invincible peace.  You  priced Gulfstreams  650’s from your cubicle.  You went out and were fitted for a new flowing robe of purest white ermine, with matching albino alligator sandals.   ‘Fess up!

Well, get used to this queasy sea-change, ladies and gents, this is The Life of the PM Investor.   Not everyone is cut out for it, as it takes a modicum of steeliness and cement-headed self-assurity.  We are dealing with extremely volatile chemicals here, and it is only our good fortune that in this particular cycle they so often explode upward, instead of directly into our face.

The main tenet I’ve learned from this almost decade long period is that these things are almost impossible to trade, save at very extreme cycle beginnings and endings, which we will attempt to identify.  Therefore, if you want to attempt to trade, I would advise keeping a “happy pile” of perhaps 15-20% of your stash, and using it to try to add to your more significant long term investment pile — your “treasure pile”  for want of a better term.

Today’s move was unnerving, and unsettling.   The good news is, we are quickly advancing to oversold on the major index — the Amex Gold Bugs Index, or $HUI, which I use as a guide for entry purposes.   As you can see from this daily, we are perhaps a day or two away from a bottoming indication, as illustrated by the RSI stochastic:

We are also approaching support at the $535 level, which you may remember offered considerable resistance some weeks back.   Now it should serve as a brake on our descent, just as it acted as an intransigent lid in the past.

Another indicator I watch closely in exigent periods like this is the U.S. dollar.   It too is approaching a critical point in the RSI reading, this time on the overbought side.   It looks like it will be very difficult for the dollar to break through $78, at least in the near term.   You will note that that level also coincides with the dollar’s 50-day EMA, which has served as a resistance level in the past.

Dollars will print, my friends, until the Bernank thinks we are out of the deflationary woods.  There are already too many out there, but no matter.   Hang on, my various Sloopies.

Comments »

 

_________________________________

As we enter the season of the Fisher of Men, I’ll humbly advance a fisherman’s theme this night. 

This is a time of nervousness and possible discord in the markets and in the civil society.   Revenue strictures have led to a fraying of the social contract, and the casual derision many aim at the government bureaucracy has curdled to something more angry.   It’s tough to watch state employees rioting about having to pay a portion of their health benefits when real unemployment levels hover in the double digits.

Maybe this is a good time to repent?

In any case, this is certainly a decent time to make like a fisherman on the Sea of Galilee and throw out one’s net for certain gold and silver plays that you’ve perhaps let slip in the past.   You are familiar with the number of headliners that I’ve chosen to lead my portfolio and I won’t bother repeating them here.  Any number of them are available on sale right now, and I continue to believe the silvers will remain the leaders, but tonight I’ve decided to illustrate one of my favorite gold picks.  

I think there’s a relatively easy buy point here, provided there’s not some sea change in either the dollar’s direction, or the overall market.  Behold:

How fortunate we are to be able to cast out our nets in such waters and bring up large gaping lunkers! 

Mazel tov.

___________________________________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2m2FIQzal9U&feature=related]

________________________________________

The knock-out makes the fighter a star, but there’s a lot of steps leading up to the fatal punch, that money maker.   It all starts with foot-work.  Ali had the greatest footwork this side of Sugar Ray Robinson, and he defined footwork as a defensive weapon in the famous rope-a-dope strategy, that combined an amorphous passive-aggressive upper body roll with a sly shuffle-dance against the ropes that literally sucked the power from the brutish giant, George Foreman, on that signature humid night in Zaire.

I advocate a similar strategy to assist in absorbing the brutal retaliatory flurries that will inevitably arise from this tidal bull we presently enjoy.  Roll with the punches.  Bleed some shares if you must — 10%, maybe even 20%.    I would not go beyond 30% at this juncture, however.   Keeping cash on hand is one thing, keeping too much of the nasty stuff and missing the rocket launch that is coming is another.

I hope this post will be timely, if in fact today’s hesitation leads to something more stomach churning.  Most important is that you do not lose your focus while the roller coaster whips you about.  

In the end, you must ask yourself the rational question:  Has any single component or fact set changed in the paper money destruction thesis?   If not, you must carry on to the predictable end.

Hint — We’re not there yet. 

EXK, SLW, PAAS, MVG on silver.   IAG and ANV and RGLD on gold.  AAU and NGD and PGZ are for your higher risk plays.  All of these on the expected dips in the next few days.

Pax.

__________________________________________

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Et02g9OQ-LM 450 300]

The Witch Tells All, at Last

_________________________

As I write this, silver is up another buck.  You review the above and you have to say to yourself — “What if all this bullshit about JP Morgan is really true?”

I said to the Monsieur tonight that I had largely discounted all the rumours (sic), all the tall tales.   But, my gosh, what the hell is going on here?   Silver has all but broken free from it’s traditional dollar anchor. 

What’s more, silver’s broken free of it’s golden companion.  This is very interesting… but is it sustainable?

Truly, I know not, to be honest with you.   I know that silver has been historically undervalued, most recently as a result of the great photograpy scam.  If you follow the industry news, the effect from a switch to digital photography has been largely absorbed.  

So is this the final breakout we’ve been anticipating for so long?  I dunno.  I’m leaning towards “no, not yet.” 

But this is why we are holding on tight to the core.  Prices are out of synch, and the dollar is near bounce levels.  We’ll know soon enough whether we ought to shed anything. 

Right now, it’s a day to hold your tickets and enjoy the show, no matter the direction.  I continue to like everything I’ve already mentioned, and more.

_______________________________

Comments »

____________________________
My fellow Americans… on this dark, dark day, when your PM positions have pulled back an egregious and insufferable one to two percent, I say to you, do not despair!

Do not feel compelled to jump on the gerbil wheel of drunken Chinamen.

Do not wander over hill and dale for the next Great Internet Bullshittery. 

And do not even bother getting short anything.  The Ben Bernank will shower all with increasingly feeble greenbacks.   Some will feel warm.  Some will point to value.   It will matter little.

Today, you must ask not what the dollar can do for you, but what you can do for the dollar.  At $76.25 or so, you can cheer the dollar on, and celebrate it’s deceased feline trampoline action by indulging in a select group of excellent names.  

They be SLW, PAAS, EXK, NGD, AAU, ANV, EGO and MVG.  

One other thing.  If you are worried about 5% moves one way or the other, and trying to catch every inflection, this game is not for you.   We are riding a wave of pure cement, and you are too small to challenge the intractable.   You will be entombed like a random concrete pourer on the mighty Verrazano.  

That is all, be well and healthy.

___________________________________________

Comments »

__________________________

UP goes silver and gold!

Sorry, I only have a minute or so, and it took me a while to fix the pic (if it is fixed!).

Looks like the dollar is heading to at least $76 where it should bounce (no guarantees).  That should give you an entry into some of my wild babies, like SLW, ANV, RGLD, PAAS, and maybe even AGQ if you have the gumption.  

I also like IVN and of course NGD and almost any silver here.  Buy quality if you can, however, so only do HL and CDE small, if at all.

I continue to become enriched, thanks to the above.  Have you participated?

I will try to re-cap my DC adventures later tonight.  Bizarre town, this is. 

________________________

Comments »