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What do you know? After trying to fake me out by blasting past my $79.80 target today, the dollar capitulated and sold off deep to about $79.25 at the lows. It’s now about $79.40.

I think earl and gold are the plays here right now, and if you are not in my two “Samurai 7” earl plays, COP and PBR, then you want to really think hard about them tomorrow. That COP is just too phat at 8x trailing earnings and a nice yield to boot.

Moreover, I think it’s safe to say that SLW was the call for today.  Unfortunately, as I recounted in the comment section of my last post,  I missed my buy stop by about ten cents.  See what happens when you try to get finicky like that?  I think I’m better off just buying at market sometimes.

In any case, the PM trade seems to be back on for now, and besides my favorite silvers like AG and EXK, I would be looking to the gold juniors, specifically GDXJ (the ETF) and AXU and BAA if you can stomach the volatility.  Otherwise, AUY, GG and RGLD are looking good here, Lucy.

Best to you all.

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As I mentioned the other afternoon, it looks like it won’t be long now, for the dollar and the precious metal markets to once again take different tracks.  And that should mean good things for the miners, as evidenced in what appears to be an approaching turn in the $HUI Gold Bug Index.

Turns out this whole Greek fiasco is becoming something of a mud-stomp for our swarthy souvlaki-eating, Ouzo-swilling band of molotav cocktail pitchers, and it appears that the European Community might even be angling to kick the Greeks out of the Euro no matter what.  Hey, as crazy as it’s become in Greece, at least they don’t have Federal officials inspecting their kids’ lunchboxes for “nutrition violations,’ yet, eh? 

I say so be it, and let it be done.  Either way it’s apparant that Big Brother Bernank is not going to let some rock-throwing, Fiat-torching proto-Spartans ruin his very stable run into the 2012 elections (and yes, he’s running too, believe it).  So be prepared to be awash in liquidity here.  Drachmas?  Schmachmas! Take some digital dollars and shut up, already. 

Around 8 am this morning, currency traders tried to make the dollar go “pop!” but gold and silver are currently calling bullshit on all that.  Yes, these three can sometimes rise together like the greatly undervalued kings of the comedy stage, Larry, Moe & Curly (not really) in a Depression-era movie house, but more often than not, this alliance is proven false within a matter of days, if not hours.  As I type this, mean-spirited Moe (the US dollar) is taking a pratfall from it’s earlier spike over $79.60, and Larry Gold and Curly Silver (the fat, dumb one), are careening higher.

As I mentioned earlier, I will also be looking for a turn in the miners here.  My weekly chart shows us approaching the bottom of that channel I pointed out the other day:

 

And the daily chart shows an even more clear bottoming in the stochastics.  Note also we almost touched the bottom of this (admittedly loose) consolidation triangle yesterday as well.   

 

 Quite a few of my stocks popped in the last hour of yesterday’s trading (along with the whole market, of course), including my March Madness pick, AUY. 

I had thought that contest was starting this Friday, for some odd reason that seemed truly logical only in my own beleaguered head.  I think that launch would have been perfect, but in the meantime, I’m in a bit of a hole, so be sure to purchase as much AUY as possible here, and to short that hideous purveyor of ethically questionable time-share vacations, AWAY.  Thanks in advance, and…

My best to you all.

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Please do not take my lack of attendance here as proof that I do not love you.  The truth is, I’ve never left you…

All through my wild days…

My mad existence.  

 I’ll keep my promise, if you keep your distance.

(and scene). 

PS — Anyone who watched WPIX-11 as a kid in Noo Yawk knows that song by heart, if only by dint of it was the only commercial that ever played weekday afternoons between the Brady Bunch and Star Trek.   Ah, teevee, my beloved babysitter!   That’s what’s wrong w. kids these days, btw.  Not enough teevee.

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A quick repair to the dollar charts.  It seems as if old man dollar is trying to ruin everyone’s Mardis Gras by busting a move here, late Monday afternoon.  Problem is, he’s got nowhere to go.   Gold, silver, frankincense and myrhh have all sold down the last couple of days, just in time for the U.S. dollar to finally make it’s last hurrah, and look!  …

Nowhere to go:

 

 You want to fight City Hall run by the Bernank? You might as well try to fight Madonna with Whitney Houston’s Baftub.   Your arms are just too short.  Let’s see… $HUI is just about done cycling down, and the dollar’s got a date with $79.80 or so.  

As far as I’m concerned, you have your instructions.

Best to you all.

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It’s not surprising that when gold and silver and the rare earth metals begin to take off, the other commodities begin to show perky life as well. “b

In one case, the “black gold” coal commodity play is beginning to take off again.   Consequently, I’m going to reintroduce a rocket that failed on me recently, but which I am willing to give another try given it’s action the last couple of days.  That rocket is the mercurial  PCX (Patriot Coal):

Who says I don’t like to pick the Patriots?  Heh.

Next I’m going to look at another old gold favourite NGD which has finally broken out (two weeks ago now) and is looking to at least equal old time highs:

 

Those more recent highs are at $14.  I think we consolidate there and get ready to dig clams immediately upon resumption of the up move.

My last chart should be familiar as I posted it just the other day.  It appears my call on REE at the $6.05 pullback was a correuct one  and now REE has broken resistance after a short consolidation.

 

Not quite sure how far this one will launch this late in the cycle, but I think that all the rare earth metals will continue to rally.  REE is one of your stronger plays in this space.

My best to you all, and good night.  I’m feeling zombie-tired and I need to store energy for the SuperBowl.

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Rare earth metals became even rarer today, as three of our major home slices of pizza, AVL, QRM and even benighted REE, the “grandfather of them all,” roared ahead like they were not just rare, but steak tartare- level impossible to find.

I think all of them have room to go, but I like AVL as the immediate purchase, with REE and QRM following perhaps by the end of the week.  Here’s my take on AVL:

As you can see, that first resistance level has been suborned, so even if you purchase tomorrow, that $3.o7 level should stand firm as a base going forward.

My second favorite is REE, which had a monstrous move today that dwarfed all of its rare earth compadres.  Check out this daily:

 

 

Note also, however, that we are coming up against all kinds of resistance here, and the stochastics are egregiously vertical.  That spells “pullback” for me, at least for the near term.  This is one that last week I was posting in The PPT as a buy at $6.05,  so be ready for another blastoff soon after this.

My last look is at QRM, which I’ve mentioned here before and which also had a nice move today.

 

As I mentioned earlier, this one is not as attractive as it butted up against resistance but did not break through.  I think that means we probably consolidate, but that volume spike also generally indicates we are going further north.

Best to you all, and remember to watch this sector along with metals more precious..

 

 

 

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The Secret To Taking Out the Patriots Next Sunday?

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Teahouse ain’t gonna like it, but…. what’s a fellah gonna do when he finds a graphic like that out on Twitter?

But hey, let’s put these Superbowl squabbles aside for now and bask in the glow of some relatively overbought, but still promising markets.  From yesterday, some of my bigs, including ANV, RGLD and AXU just did not want to give up their marches northward even with the brief spurt of the dollar and the commensurate minor shellacking of the precious metal commodity markets.  Heck, even SLW, AG and EXK, my silver darlings, did not give up much today, despite precipitously overbought conditions.

That leaves us with a bit of a problem, however, as we don’t want to enter or even add to these great weekly stories until we get a bit more of a blowoff.   This predicament is not wholly PM-restricted either, as  I am hoping for the same pullback in my recently relentless “Stock of the Year” pick, UPS, and my Seventh Samurai servant, MON, as well.

Luckily, I have another Samurai that has been taking a bit of a rest lo these last three trading days, and coincidentally, it happens to be my best performer of the year.  Yes ladies and gents, that odd post title did stand for something… the ubiquitous PBR, which hit exactly at that $32 resistance I mentioned when I first recc’ed it, and, like a good Brasilian trophy wife, has sold back in the most delicate manor.  Note how the 20-day has now met the 200-day EMA in this nascent recovery of 2012?

 

 

 

 

      I think we may have one, and perhaps two more days of consolidation left in this girl from Ipanema, and I’m hoping for an additional pickup in the $29.25 area, perhaps tomorrow sometime.   I think earl is already starting to take up it’s part in the “liquidity wheel” along with gold and silver.  This darling will continue to benefit, as will we all.

My best to you.

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