[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12T95RHGLH8&feature=related 450 300]

_______________________________

Gold’s not been so hot, here, but I’m patient, and I’ll wait for it to break out of this oversold condition much like I’ve done many times in the past.   There’s been little conditional change in the broader underpinnings of this PM market.  We still have massive liquidity demand — if only for bandaging purposes on European and American debt problems.  We still have too much of our economy being crowded out by government creep (and creeps).   And earl and ag inflation, despite the recent sell-offs, are a constant threat.  

I am therefore comfortable holding my horde whilst exploring other alternatives that have been solid for me for years.  Among those, you know of UPS and MON, which I’ve spoken of many times.  I still like those for the very long term.   There are a couple of other names, however, that I have talked about much recently. 

These are stocks that I would categorize as “hold forever,” as long as they continue to carry and groom their historically strong management teams.  You just put these names away and expect the best.   Then one day, they reward you, like Markel (MKL) did this week. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would encourage you to study up on Markel, some would say they are “the next Berkshire Hathaway.”  All I know is that these are very sharp guys on the insurance side… very workman-like and below the radar.  The kind of stock I like to hold forever. 

On the consumer products front, LANC (Lancaster Colony) — a name I’ve mentioned here beofre– is another gem that does nothing but grow wisely on your supermarket shelves.  It looks real nice right here: 

 

 Read up on LANC as well.  It’s good niche food business, with a sweet little dividend to keep things happy while you wait.  Slow and steady wins the race on these smart folks.

Last, for those of you who are jonesing for a gold pick, there  is benighted AAU, which #6 asked me about on my last blog post.  It’s looking oversold like the rest of the gold market, and it sure looks like it’s in opportune spot here resting on its 200 week EMA: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Patience will be rewarded, as it has been for a decade now. 

 Best to you all…

________________________________________

Comments »

_____________________________________

Yes, the Cards kicked ass in their usual inimical, erosive fashion, but the Lucky Birds are you today, my friends, not my 13 point winning, New York Giants imitating Louisville Cardinals.  Why you ask?

Oh!  How lucky you are to be able to catch the $HUI at the 200 day moving average!   It’s not often we get there:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m  going to grab some GDX and GDXJ, today as I think we’re close to at least a tradeable bottom.  We will likely have to be somewhat nimble, but I think this might be the nadir — especially if the dollar moves down into an intermediate cycle low.  ANV and BAA are my best individual bets for the risk takers.

For those among you who are adventurous… the cheap stuff on the silver side is really, well… cheap  !  SSRI is looking especially tasty here, for example, as is AG.  EXK already started taking off yesterday.  Of course SIL is there for those looking for “pool” instead of “pond.”   Note also, the rare-earths as well.  If the dollar drops, they will all benefit.

Have a great weekend, and go Cards (and Cats and Hoosiers, whoops! I win either way on that one!).

_____________________

 

Comments »

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5qc3qZqe38 450 300]

_______________________

I’ve been lying low, deep within the underground catacombs of my hardened cee-ment (sic) bunker, waiting for the air to change before speaking with you again.    Last week the dollar was on the edge of a knife, and it looked like it was poised to strike a blow against my precious metal position that even I, in my well-defended fortress– Haz-mat suited and full-fetal positioned– would find difficult to withstand. 

But this morning, after a 36-hour narco-nap, I decided to “up-periscope,” fully expecting to witness scenes of post-apocalyptic societal dissolution.  Instead, I found these guys scurrying about, handing out large wads of $100 dollar bills for 500 yuan a piece.

Is it possible we are just enduring one last head fake before the dollar re-asserts itself and makes mince-meat pies out of all my lovely precious metal and rare-earth positions?   It’s certainly possible.

But for now, I will revel in the respite, as Stealth-Bernank and the Chinese work out their differences and my “tell-tale” stocks  — UPS, FCX and the rare-earths (REE, MCP, AVL, QRM) move nicely here.  

If you prefer gambling to regular, gentlemen’s club smoking room type investing (UPS, COP, CMI, MON, etc), then there are two current seat-of-their-pants plays I’m watching right now —  sugar high confectionary profits in IPSU and a little-bit-nutty, a little-bit-slutty rare earth play AVL. 

I also like SSRI, here, mostly for the pricetag on its silver.

God bless, and I hope to be with you more often this week.

____________

 

 

 

Comments »

__________________________________________________________________________

Yes, it’s getting to be that time of year again.  That time when the Louisville Basketball Cards get my hopes up by doing real well (maybe even winning) in the Big East Tournament, only to dash my head up against the sea-foam flecked jetty by crapping the bed in the actual NCAA Tournament.

Well, they’re doing it again, playing one of the best games of their season against #9 ranked Marquette (the #2 seed in the Big East Tournament), snagging 26 offensive rebounds and forcing Marquette into 25 turnovers (they’d averaged 12 all year).  Will this defensive dominance be enough to take them past Notre Dame tomorrow night and into the finals on Saturday?

I don’t really care, as I’m steeling myself against any victory.  It’s all for the best, believe me.

__________________

Except for purchases of EXK and TC on Wednesday, I’ve been sitting around eating samitches.   I’m still a bit leery of this market, despite the dollar losing a lot of steam today while gold & silver strengthened.   I’m up pretty nicely on EXK and I’m even thinking about adding some more AG.   However, I still continue to believe that AUY is one of the better bets in the gold miner market.  Check how the price has rebounded nicely on the weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And this is where I think the “safe zone” is to purchase … above $17.50 where that handle in the weekly will be better defined.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best to you all, and Go Cards! (and Big East in general).

_________________________________

Comments »

___________________________________

Awakening by the Sea

(by a kid I know)

the glaring sun, already high,

the sky a namesake blue

the sea, a  mirror, floating by

reflecting azure hue

 

the sun comes in, the night that sped

to cover all has passed

so creeping in and on my bed

light reaches me at last

 

at first not knowing where I am

I slowly raise my head

Then memory breaks confusion’s dam

And brings joy in its stead

 

I do not think that there can be

in the mornings early light

many better things to see

than that ocean shining bright

_____________________________

Nothing more becalming than the fresh lyrics of the 15-year old English student, no?  Well, to each his own.  I thought that was good enough for publishing anyway, and I needed some becalming after the day my port endured, even with only 60% exposure.  Almost all my high fliers got hit, but I think I see some relief in at least the near future as both the dollar and the miners ($HUI) run into key resistance and support levels.

First, the dollar, which this daily $USD chart shows has hit that resistance level again today and has backed up below $79.80 this evening.  If it continues to fall, we should see a tradeable bounce.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second is the $HUI weekly, which I showed last night as approaching the channel bottom.  Well we hit that bottom and bounced this afternoon.  If we stay in that channel and get a rise back up, we should be good for an extended period.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I bot some EXK at the close today and a large pot of TC as well.  I might wade in for some AG and possible NUGT too if I think the bounce has legs.  Best to you all.

 

Comments »

__________________________

I know, I know…  I’ve claimed “I’m busy” many times to you but I will do so once again.  I am truly burning the candle at both ends, Breitbart-style, and it’s going to have to stop.  I may have to take a leave of absence until I can get some of these deals through the chute over the next couple of months.  Work is literally coming through the door at an unprecedented pace, and it’s beginning to get slightly out of hand.  I’m not sure if it’s Obama Panic or Demographic Destiny, but people who own quality companies are throwing their hands up and saying “get me out” like a pack of dachshunds in a Pringles cannery. It’s never been like this in my memory, and most of my career has taken place in the warm sun of a bull market.

But it’s not like a bull market selling environment, despite the hefty buyers interest out there.  The shareholders’ optimism is no longer there.  Instead of my having to fight clients into viewing business as a cycle and not a permanent slope to heaven, now I have to “sell, sell, sell!” like Cramer on airplane glue, because the end is near, and it’s awful to behold.

I’m not going to complain, truly as there are many many buyers with cash out there — also more than I’ve ever seen.  Until that pool attenuates my job is easier than it has been in the past, despite the macroeconomic conditions.   It’s even fun.  I just hope I can make it through to the finish on all of it….

___________________________________

But on the stock side, I’m munching a Prosperity Sandwich, while waiting to see if my $HUI resolves itself here.   So far, the silver precious has held up decently, even as the dollar has rebounded back above $79.  In the meantime, the $HUI stays in it’s channel (and will do so even below $500), and perhaps touches the lower edge again.  Remains to be seen.  I’m doing nothing, and I’ve still got 40% of my cash to throw at something, or maybe nothing.  It’s nice to have opportunities…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s keep our eyes open.  If the dollar cranks any higher, it could have ill effect on our miners.  Below $490 on the $HUI could be time to retract, and perhaps even edge.  Eyes front, and on the road.

Best to you all.

Comments »