—-  Back Among Friends —

______________

C’mon, you know I couldn’t resist a low hanging curve like this one.    But enough about the not-so-mourned paedophile (sic), as it looks like the real Jacksons are breaking out again.  Even with the modified [[TZA]] hedge position, I still came away with a righteous 2.73% up day yesterday for the JCHP.

And that’s not including the sundry “side-bets” I made courtesy of the Chart Addict Casino and Burlesque Review.    I try not to play long there, as it can be “addicting.” 

Yesterday, while the site was down, I played around a little with the Jacksonian Portfolio Presentation again, and while I don’t think I will reveal the actual stock holdings every day, I thought the additional information below might be helpful for you to understand how I am trading within the portfolio to harvest gains and manage risk.   So today, I’ve done away with the “comments” portion in order to show you the actual holdings as of yesterday. 

As a point of clarification, the only change I made yesterday was to sell one half the TZA hedge position at $23.67, taking a little over a dollar loss on 201 shares (I still hold the remaining half).     That left me with a bit over $13,440 in cash in the position.  For the purposes of the weighting, I have cash sitting at an annual return of 2.5%.  

As you will see it was an amazing day yesterday, as silver cleared $14.00 and gold held steady as well, pushing the $940 area (we are flirting with that price again today, despite the rest of the market being down).   I think the miners will likely take a rest today and we may even be in for more consolidation.  The trick is not to get impatient here, and to manage your positions for the next major cycle turn. 

For today, continue to keep an eye on the junior miners, including Jacksonian Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , and non-Jacksonians NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] , Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] , Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Aurizon Mines Ltd.(USA) [[AZK]] and maybe most important, Rubicon Minerals Corp. (USA) [[RBY]] .  This should be a consolidation day for all of those, so shop with “moth hands.”

As for silvers, they are all strong relative to the market today as the underlying metal is making a nice return over $14 here.  Keep an eye on micro-junior [[EXK]] for action, and also [[CDE]] which seems to be a day ahead of its brethren, and may have a consolidation day today as well.

As for the non-PM’s… I continue to like Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] here, and good old Jacksonian Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] might run into trouble again at its 38.2% fib retrace at $10.88.   More in updates to come…

Jacksonian Core Holdings with Cash & Stock Weightings

Name/					Position’s	Number of	Percentage	Weighted
Ticker	24-Jun	25-Jun	% Change		Port Value	Shares	of Port	return
ANDE	$        28.84	$ 29.95	3.85%		$   18,085.75	603.86	10.34%	0.40%
EGO	8.51	9.39	10.34%		8,798.43	937.00	5.03%	0.52%
GDX	38.49	39.99	3.90%		12,103.51	302.66	6.92%	0.27%
GLD	91.45	92.31	0.94%		10,616.44	115.01	6.07%	0.06%
IAG	9.99	10.58	5.91%		13,045.62	1,233.05	7.46%	0.44%
MON	76.16	75.66	-0.66%		4,437.53	58.65	2.54%	-0.02%
NRP	20.92	20.83	-0.43%		8,646.74	415.11	4.94%	-0.02%
PAAS	18.47	19.34	4.71%		11,615.62	600.60	6.64%	0.31%
RGLD	43.74	46.00	5.17%		12,710.69	276.32	7.27%	0.38%
SLV	13.68	13.81	0.95%		11,218.52	812.35	6.41%	0.06%
SLW	8.34	8.81	5.64%		8,557.48	971.34	4.89%	0.28%
SSRI	18.65	19.65	5.36%		11,431.07	581.73	6.53%	0.35%
TBT	53.03	51.03	-3.77%		10,165.34	199.20	5.81%	-0.22%
TC	9.63	10.31	7.06%		4,836.52	469.11	2.76%	0.20%
TCK	16.12	15.99	-0.81%		10,631.65	664.89	6.08%	-0.05%
TZA	24.86	22.74	-8.53%		4,581.18	201.46	2.62%	-0.22%
AVG (daily)			2.48%		$ 161,482.09	Equity value	92.32%
AVG (monthly)			-5.89%		$   13,440.07	Cash	7.68%	0.00%
AVG (inception)			16.22%		$ 174,922.16	Tot Port Value	100.00%	2.73%

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Sorry for my lack of attendance today, Jackson fans, sometimes I have to attend to things that are in the market but not of the market.   If that sounds vaguely quizzical, then it’s served its purpose.

Unfortunately, whilst returning from one such errand, I noticed one of my stops had triggered.   I say “unfortunately” because I am a very reluctant seller of any Jacksonians, unless I’m a full seller, as in the case of the unabashed drunkard Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] (which continues to toddle down the streets of Skid Row, stopping only to barf on the brogans of the local constabulary).

   Unable to part with my Monsanto Company [[MON]] altogether, however, I had set a stop on half the shares upon a break of $77.25.   Much to my rue and deep chagrin, said stop was triggered today, and I was left with only half my position.   Offsetting that mournful loss was the addition of another $4,530 in cash with which to gamble at quoits whilst smoking Churchillian Monte Cristos and imbibing  tinctures of absinthe & laudanum.

One of these days I will get around to giving you a picture of the actual shares and dollar amounts of these holdings (hint– they all started at $10,000 each) , so it won’t all seem such a smokey mystery.   In the meantime, you’ll just have to make due with the raw return numbers as you have been doing, along with an idea of the cash talings left over from various sales profitable and not so.   

One last point… the “Three N’s of the Apocalypse”  NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] , New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] and Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] all looked very healthy today, as did Jacksonian Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] .   It seems the golds are making out a bit better than our silvers, which have been hit by the same “industrial malaise” that afflicted not only Jimmy Carter throughout the 70’s and up to today, but even our faithful friend and ally, The Fly.   Even Teck Cominco Limited (USA) [[TCK]] which has made a valiant rebound, seemed tired by Bernake’s machinations today. 

What can one trust but the original money, one asks?  What indeud?

Name	23-Jun	24-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 28.23	$   28.84	2.16%		Weird candle today. Stochs turning up.
EGO	8.07	8.51	5.45%		Nice continuation.  50-day @ $8.60
GDX	37.33	38.49	3.11%		Back over the 50-day quick ($38.20)
GLD	90.92	91.45	0.58%		50 day @ 91.60, POG $931
IAG	9.58	9.99	4.28%		Nice continuation.
MON	79.30	76.16	-3.96%		Sold half (58.65 shs) @ $77.23 (note cash below).
NRP	20.65	20.92	1.31%		Still hanging in there, facing my wrath
PAAS	18.31	18.47	0.87%		Still weak, as is silver in general.
RGLD	42.43	43.74	3.09%		Broke the downtrend line nicely.
SLV	13.62	13.68	0.44%		POS still under $14.
SLW	8.21	8.34	1.58%		Still looking for 200 day EMA @ $8.40
SSRI	17.99	18.65	3.67%		Still having trouble getting over 200 day EMA
TBT	51.85	53.03	2.28%		Treasury auctions over, I guess?
TC	9.42	9.63	2.23%		Rebounded, since I sold more, of course.
TCK	15.51	16.12	3.93%		Still bouncing, but w. less vigour (sic)
TZA	25.57	24.86	-2.78%		Down, but not as much as you’d think. Holding.
AVG (daily)			1.77%
AVG (monthly)			-8.02%
AVG (inception)			13.09%
Cash ( 000’s)			$       8.67

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I was beaten like a silver gong today, and Mr. Market is telling me in not so polite terms that I’d better get the hood up on the convertible before he starts raining golf ball sized hail on my head.

I’ve been busy here so I don’t have a ton of time for comment, but suffice it to say, until further notice, we are in bunker mode.  That means I will be hedging the JCHP with double and treble ETF’s in order to make up for any downward motion in the silver and gold plays.  As well, I may either cut back severely, or totally eliminate certain positions.  

Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] is an example.    I am keeping it right now, even though it is down more than 10% since inception because it carries a high dividend yield (almost 9% at inception, higher now).  However, I may get rid of it if it dumps below $20.   I may also take this opportunity to lard on some [[SMN]] or other appropriate short shields.   I will definitely add [[TZA]] — the triple short small cap —  at the open for instance, since I bot some just before the close today for my own portfolio ($24.92) 

I think we’ll probably get a bit of a bounce tomorrow, and I’ll be taking that opportunity to move into cash and some hedges, as I don’t think this is over.  If it’s just a short term blip, so be it.   We can scale back in when the ground is safer.   In the meantime, protecting principal (and gains) will be the paramount idea. 

I’ll update the JCHP later tonight.

Update:  One thing to keep in mind is that the US Gubb’mint needs to sell over $100 billion in bonds this week.  You think there might be a reason to jack the price of Treasuries [[TLT]] for such selling purposes?  Remember, Goldman sells these things for them.

Update: Here’s yesterday’s ugly Jacksonians.  I just picked up some TZA @ 24.85 (yes, lower than yesterday’s entry) for insurance:

Name	19-Jun	22-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$ 28.61	$   28.45	-0.56%		Spent most of the session up
EGO	8.20	7.65	-6.71%		Broke $8 support, next at $7.19
GDX	38.39	35.74	-6.90%		Broke TL barely, needs to get back to 36.75
GLD	91.90	90.54	-1.48%		Also broke TL, needs to see over $91.50
IAG	9.36	9.04	-3.42%		Also beneath TL, needs $9.35
MON	80.73	78.12	-3.23%		Still on trend, needs to stay over $78.
NRP	21.99	20.60	-6.32%		Sell below $20.00
PAAS	18.93	18.02	-4.81%		Least banged up silver today, still above TL
RGLD	43.08	41.12	-4.55%		Still above TL, 38.2% fib @ $39.50
SLV	13.99	13.54	-3.22%		Still above TL til $12.87
SLW	8.63	7.97	-7.65%		Right on long term TL today, gotta bounce here.
SSRI	18.92	17.56	-7.19%		Still on long term TL til 16.50, could get there.
TBT	54.34	53.28	-1.95%		Could easily get back to 49.25 before bounce.
TC	10.54	9.40	-10.82%		Sell all on a break of $9.25, 1/2 on gap fill 10.38
TCK	16.54	14.57	-11.91%		Sell below 14.35, long term TL @ $12.50
AVG (daily)			-5.38%
AVG (monthly)			-12.15%
AVG (inception)			9.39%
Cash ( 000’s)			$       4.61

UPDATE: The following astounding link should be clicked by all.   Keep in mind that The POTUS just asked that the Fed be put in charge of MORE of our financial system, and then watch this.

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[[AZK]] – big buy at EOD on Friday — over 20% of the day’s stock traded in the last 30 minutes.

[[CDE]] – Very high volume (over four times average) white doji after ten (!) red down days in a row.  Bears watching.

[[DROOY]] — 29% of all trading in one five minute period on Friday (3:50-:55) drove the stock up 43 cents (5%).

[[EGO]] This Jackson pick also had almost three times volume on Friday.  Strong into close until last five minutes, with a massive sell stick.  Ended with an inverted (white) hammer, volume indicating bottoming.

[[FRG]] Could get interesting over $4.21  — handle breakout?  Also, E8’s possible AEM buyout pick.

[[GRS]] Could be a short here, on a break of $6.90.  Weird EOD activity on Friday.

[[IAG]] Again, almost 3x normal volume on an up day for this Jackson, but massive last ten minute red candles give pause (1.4 mm shares out of 9mm total).

[[NGD]] Another that looks great on the daily chart, but then that last five minute plunge gives one pause.   Breaking out up til then — could’ve been opex.  Looking for handle breakout here.

[[NXG]] Massive volume white doji, but last ten minutes blood red too.  Still on trend.

[[RBY]] Maybe the best pick of the day, breaking to new all time highs on Friday.  STILL had EOD selling the last ten minutes!  What was going on?   I guess we’ll see soon enough…

Developing…

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Lot’s of comments,  and I’ve annotated some charts, but I don’t have time to fill in the commentary yet, so I’ll just throw the charts out for now.   Many of them are self explanatory… “developing…”

Markets via the Transports, daily:

And weekly, with the Fibs:

 

 

Now our $HUI— daily:

And the weekly $HUI:

Last, the Jacksonian Results as of Friday:

Name	18-Jun	19-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$   28.18	$    28.61	1.53%		Still in consolidation here. Break now $28.15
EGO	7.97	8.20	2.89%		Support @ 8, bizarre final 1/2 hour.
GDX	37.20	38.39	3.20%		Nice EOD action.
GLD	91.60	91.90	0.33%		POG flat, like all week.
IAG	9.10	9.36	2.86%		Never got below $9.  Odd last ten minutes
MON	82.30	80.73	-1.91%		A pox on Cramer. Nice final 45 min.
NRP	21.95	21.99	0.18%		Back above trend for now.
PAAS	18.59	18.93	1.83%		Nice volume today.
RGLD	41.98	43.08	2.62%		Still on trend.
SLV	13.97	13.99	0.14%		POSilver @14.23, inside day
SLW	8.30	8.63	3.98%		Triangle forming, up off the floor?
SSRI	18.13	18.92	4.36%		Nice move, but EOD red candles again.
TBT	55.76	54.34	-2.55%		Not yet filled gap @ 54.20 yet.
TC	10.50	10.54	0.38%		Flat again.   Watch for break.
TCK	16.28	16.54	1.60%		Consolidating.
AVG (daily)			1.43%
AVG (monthly)			-7.15%
AVG (inception)			15.55%
Cash ( 000’s)			$       4.61

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Sheesh, I sure am glad I put that caveat in there yesterday, because all those nice high topped hammers I saw yesterday did nothing but crash off my dome all day long today.  Let’s face it, I’m starting to get a little tired of this pullback (down over 9% this month!), m’self, and even more so given the relative reasonableness of today’s market on the specifically non-Jacksonian financial sector today.  Talk about a victory for the bloody Redcoats!

That said, I haven’t stopped picking up shares in various stocks that I consider bargains at these prices.  I’m just flabbergasted at how low ((SSRI)) and ((PAAS)) and ((SLW)) have gotten.  I bot more SSRI yesterday, and got another 2k of SLW today (at $8.26 on the gap fill), so I guess tomorrow is PAAS’s day?

For those of you who have been accumulating slowly here, bravo.  The Jacksonian Portfolio is defintely a Spartan marathon and not a dash to the corner deli for a pack of Kools and a pint of Sunny Delight.   This “bucking bull” volatility is going to be here for the duration,  so we’re going to have to “get in shape” by taking some cash off the table from time to time, like I did with ((TC)) the other day.  

As you may recall, that 1/3 TC sale and the liquidation of the original TSO position left me with some $14,607 in cash from the original portfolio.   I finally decided to put the bulk of that to work with an initial $10k position in ((TCK)), as we’ve contemplated.  It didn’t hurt that TCK was having a good day, let me tell you.  Now I have $4.6 k left in cash, and soon I’ll begin incorporating the cash component into the overall returns as well.   It doesn’t make any sense to take profits and then not incorporate that into the total return of the portfolio. 

As well, I’ve decided to be a bit more “illustrative” in this account by dealing with hedging in a different way than I do in my personal account.   As it’s too complex (and annoying)  to incorporate the short calls I usually use to hedge my portfolio, I will more simply sell portions (or all) of the  Jacksonians in order to accrue cash in the portfolio and take risk off the table.   I think that will probably be easier for you all to follow as well.   Your comments are welcome. 

I haven’t much in the way of commentary on the Jacksons today other than my notes below.  I will say that we continue to be brutally oversold, and we are due for a cycle low here in the precious metals any day now.  I continue to believe you will be rewarded for your perseverance here. 

Because I felt bad about all these bloody Jacksons (save TCK) I figured I’d dig up one “present” for tomorrow… a non-Jacksonian I did the fibs on tonight is [[MTL]] — Mechel OAO.  Coking coal, steel, molybdenum, it’s got it all.   I like it because it touched beautifully off the23.6%  intermediate term fibonacci line today and it looks like it’s ready to go again.    The other one I like for tomorrow we’ve already discussed… PPT favorite [[SPAR]].  Best to you all.

Name	17-Jun	18-Jun	% Change		Comments
ANDE	$   28.88	$     28.18	-2.42%		Will sell half on a break of $28.  Gap fill at $26.60
EGO	8.65	7.97	-7.86%		Trend line @ 7.78.  Bearish engulfing says we get it.
GDX	38.23	37.20	-2.69%		Failed hammer, back to support.
GLD	92.35	91.60	-0.81%		POG $934, within yest range
IAG	9.65	9.10	-5.70%		Sell 1/2 on break of support @ 8.75
MON	81.08	82.30	1.50%		Cramer beat it up tonight, a net positive.
NRP	22.13	21.95	-0.81%		5 red days in a row? C’mon already!
PAAS	20.39	18.59	-8.83%		Uptrend line at 17.95. Pssin me off.
RGLD	43.73	41.98	-4.00%		Hammer doji on trendline, EOD buying
SLV	14.12	13.97	-1.06%		POSilver @14.24, inside day
SLW	8.80	8.30	-5.68%		Filled that last gap at $8.27, bot 2k more $8.26
SSRI	19.22	18.13	-5.67%		Do not like this action one bit.
TBT	54.17	55.76	2.94%		Gap @ 54.21.  Could come back once more.
TC	10.50	10.50	0.00%		Perfect doji day.
TCK	15.31	16.28	6.34%		Nice first day on the job.
AVG (daily)			-2.32%
AVG (monthly)			-8.32%
AVG (inception)			13.91%
Cash ( 000’s)			$       4.61

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