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Yes, I sold off or hedged quite a bit of my gold and silver exposure last week, though I still keep quite a few low-floaters for “venture capital” type opportunities.   Like as not I will trim down to the core this week.   My reasons for doing so are two-fold:

First, we saw gold hit a significant hurdle last week at $1820 or so without either silver or the miners really taking off.   We then saw gold drop more than $70 in scant days, taking it’s little sister silver along with it (far more precipitously, I might add).   Now both have stabilized, but I can’t help but think we’ve been riding this latest wave long enough and it’s time to step-off while there’s still some peanuts on the floor to take home to Mom.

Second, my gut is telling me the string is playing out, not only on our precious metal positions (albeit temporarily), but also on the market itself.

But not before a bit of a party.

As you may recall, I bot some ERX and some EDC last week and those have been doing fine.  I might add to some of those this week, depending on the reception we get tomorrow morning at around 11 am (my preferred “taste time.”)  I may even grab some TNA and QLD as well.

But be forewarned — I’m only grabbing ETF’s because they are easier to monitor with regard to swift moves  in the market, which I fully expect in these next few months.   Like as not, I will trim all extraneous non-ETF positions in the coming weeks, as the market continues to regain its health from the recent depredations.  That means even UPS and BWA will go — though they may go last.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1iUKCFHWzg&NR=1 450 300]

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I finally broke down and watched my first Republican Presidential Primary Debate tonight.  It was still a struggle to pay attention, despite my “political animal” tendencies.  There were just too many flotsams and jetsams out there that needed to be weeded out to get the ball rolling a little quicker.  I assure you, I would take a paring knife to that list if I were the grand GOP Puzzlemaker, instead of just some mouthy guy spouting my opinions on a lightly regarded stock blog.

The two biggest losers tonight had to be former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum.  Here’s the thing — could you even tell the two apart?  Yeah, I know Rick is the Catholic firebrand and Pawlenty is the cool laconic Lutheran (or whatever they are in Minnesota), but physically they are very comparable, and charisma-wise, well…. I find myself wondering how Pawlenty ever got elected in Minnesota in the first place.

Did his dad own a department store chain, too??

With those two nobodies yanked, the next to go has to be Newt Gingrich.  Smart, no question, but way too unlikeable.  His negatives have to be up there with Hillary Clinton, and its all reflective of the smug know-it-all defensiveness that characterized his every delivery tonight.   No, he’s gone, and please Lord, soon.

That leaves us with the ever entertaining pair of Ron Paul and Herman Cain, who, in a perfect world, would be named Benevolant Dictators of America, because you’re pretty damn sure neither of them would abuse the power.  That said, neither are really ready for prime time, even as both of them gave some of the best answers of the night.  I will never agree with Paul on a foreign policy basis, but I like his libertarian views on civil rights, etc.   Herman Cain is just a whip smart bidnessman and you know he’s honest to a tee — perhaps too honest to be in politics, unfortunately.

That Huntsman creep I don’t even countenance.  The guy worked for Obama for a couple of years and we’re supposed to hire him as Big O’s replacement?  I’m figuring that dude must have shitte tonnes o’ green to burn, because I haven’t seen that much of a no-chance candidacy since the terminally morose Ralph Nadar ran for the Greens.  Huntsman, you’re fired too.

That leaves us with the lovely Michele Bachman and der Mittster.  Michele is lovely to look at, and I really respect her convictions, but there’s something about her that seems a little too frozen.  Maybe it’s here eyelids?  I dunno, but it’s odd how she speaks at the tv’s like she’s reading from an invisible teleprompter or something.    I have to sadly conclude that if she weirds out a rock-ribbed conservative like me who supports much of her platform, she’s got less chance than even Sarah Palin in the general.

That leaves Mitt, whom, as you know, I’ve been cool on since he announced.   I want to like Mitt, because I have some friends who would lay down their life for the guy, and these are not idealistic schoolgirls, but experienced deal guys I’m talking about.  However, as you know, I just have a hard time getting around the whole Romneycare thing.  Well, after tonight’s performance, I began to thaw a little bit on old Willard Mitt.

I thought he gave some really nice answers on many of the business and fiscal questions, and I really got the sense that his calm confidence (contrasted against Santorum’s near-mania at times, for example) really are a nice fit for the current state of malaise in which we find ourselves enmired.

So, for now, I’m feeling like I could pull the trigger for Mitt.  But let’s see what Saturday brings, as I also have a soft spot in my heart for Texans and their way of doing things.  Perry could be the one, as well.

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As The PPT members already know, I dumped a bunch of silver and gold today, but not by any means a portion more than 25% of my horde.  The ones I saw as either ripe or annoying (IAG), I cut down first.   I ended up selling anywhere from 1/3 to 2/3rds of my stashes in AG, ANV, IAG, EXK and NGD.  I also got rid of all of the rest of my DGP and NUGT positions, just to take the leverage off.  I sold no SLW or RGLD, but I may get rid of some of that tomorrow.

In the meantime, gold has taken a little air out, and silver along with her, but nothing extraordinary has occurred yet.  I will be monitoring the situation through tomorrow afternoon and let you know what I’m thinking, if anything.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34ag4nkSh7Q&NR=1 450 300]

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I had a Sargent Schulz moment this morning and, as a result, ended up selling “nossing.”

As you may recall, we opened kind of weak in the miners, and I decided to hold off til my usual 10-11 am period to dispose of some stocks.   But we began rallying shortly after the open and it looked like gold was trying to hang in there.  Generally, I would not recommend this line of indecision and I would enjoin you, rather,  to “follow your plan” at all times.

Sometime, however, my “gut” tells me that I should stay my hand.  Often times allowing for a little patience, and “not trading” instead of pro-actively trading, I’ve saved myself considerable heartache and regret.

That doesn’t mean I won’t be selling tomorrow, however, even as the dollar drop today tells me it will be difficult for gold and silver to break down any time soon.  What I may be doing instead is selling a portion of some of my fatter gold plays (and maybe some silver if we discontinue our current rebound) and investing in some “fast actin’ Tinactin” recovery stocks, like EEM, QLD, TNA and perhaps even some ERX (sorry Cain!).

I would be loathe to abandon the recovering baser metal plays as well in this snap-back, so I will be inspecting TC, TCK, TIE and even some AVL tomorrow.  Last, take a look at two good beat-downs for some fast flash action — CREE and PBR .  These are two of my old favourites which have fallen considerably OUT of favor.   They may be worth a spin of the wheel.

Best to you all.

 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVAD8Zl5ngg 450 300]

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Looking over my charts this evening (no shoulder devils or broken elevators), it seems that while the price of gold is doing the Heschel Walker down the field, the metal’s miners are lagging behind like a fat man with smoker’s hack.  This gives me some pause and has me with my finger on the trigger.   Despite minor wins today in AUQ, AUY and ANV, most miners that didn’t start with “A” were having trouble addressing the field.   Moreover, silver struggled at the $40 line and gave it up by the end of the day.  As a result, despite gold being up nicely, I was still down in my miner-saturated portfolio almost 2% overall today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ve seen this play before (gold up, silver and PM miners lagging) and I don’t intend to stick around to see what comes of it again.  I will likely sell some portions of my miners tomorrow morning and then hedge the rest with sold calls.  I  will also launch the remainder of my  NUGT and DGP (what remains of them) even as I’ll  likely hold on to my GLD and SLV positions for the duration,

I will then likely  spin some of the newly raised cash into a few rebound stock positions to take advantage of a bounce I feel certain shall finally come tomorrow as we test the depths of 1090 and perhaps lower.  I am again looking at QLD, TNA, EEM and possibly, quite possibly EDC again (very small ball!).

Be well and be wary, my friends.

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It’s kind of an odd feeling, really. Seeing that I’ve been ranting about the U.S. unfunded liability overhang and its one logical solution, you’d think I’d be out there wagging my finger in peoples’ faces and doing a touchdown dance as our debt is (symbolically and politically, I know) downgraded from “pristine” once again, and the rout of the U.S. dollar is on in earnest.

Instead of taking great joy in $1,700+ gold and $40+ silver I’m seeing tonight, and preparing myself to buy others’ margin calls tomorrow morning, I’m sitting here more than a little bit numb.   This is still my country after all, and it’s still a punch in the gut to see it caught in a debt trap of its own construction.   Yeah, we saw it coming, and that’s why we’ve been building a fortress of gold and silver to shelter us.

But will it be enough?

I honestly don’t know.   For all I know, my miners will get waxed along with the rest of the market (if in fact the market doesn’t just head fake completely tomorrow).   My sturdy ETF’s might malfunction, my options might turn to gruel and even my physical might be tough to transfer if the President decides to go “Full Metal Franklin Delano” on us.    Let’s face it folks, it’s all fine and good to prepare financially, but we are entering into unchartered waters here, and it’s not like we’ve got Horatio Nelson at the wheel, here.

I really didn’t think we’d arrive at this hour this quickly — in 2011.  However, the combination of torpid growth and high unemployment have hit tax collections to such a degree that the current rates of spending have blown a hole in our debt capacity well before we expected in the mid 2000-teens.  There will be painful choices ahead that will make this summer’s kabuki theater play look like the first round of Let’s Make a Deal in comparison.

I don’t doubt they will include tax increases, and likely across the whole bulk of the citizenry.   There are just not enough wealthy people with taxable income around to bring us to any sort of solvency — even with massive cuts to the Federal budget.  No, we’re going to have to go back to the old ways — where everyone contributes at some level, and there are no more free-riders.  If you try to get this done on the back of “him behind that tree,” you will inspire nothing but enmity in the capital providers, which will in turn only drive our economy to darker depths.

I am hoping this shot across our bough will be enough to drive our politicians to a serious assessment of our national dent — both on and off-balance sheet.  If instead this opportunity is squanderd and the pols decide it’s more electorally profitable to scare old people into believing they’ll be left high and dry at the prospect of any reform, God help us all.

In an event, we should have a good day in the gold sector tomorrow.  I will be looking very closely at the action not only on the physical metals themselves (gold, silver, platinum), but also at the $HUI to keep an eye on the miners, and on AUY in particular.  It seemed to take a much lighter hit last week on the pullback, and that may mean it’s getting ready to really take off after that long consolidation.

Good luck to us all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7x60uLIfHJk 450 300]

Classic Dawg

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Beaten, bludgeoned, and swallowed by an African Rock Python (only to be regurgitated, and then beaten again), I stand before you gob-smacked and riven.  I’ve been selling off in drips and drabs this week, in anticipation of a pullback in the gold market, and a lesser refrain in the silvers.   I guess I should feel relieved I got rid of some exceptionally over-weighted positions in some super-volatiles like AAU and AG.

I had even  sold some RGLD yesterday — ever so reluctantly.   It’s a testament to the kind of day I had when my losses in RGLD were some of the lowest of the day at a mere 4.54%.   Many of my juniors were in the 10%+ loss range, with my beloved EXK leading the pack of ass-biters at a loss of over 14% by day’s end.  In the end, I guess I feel a bit lucky that — thanks to my increased cash proportions and my tiny hedges on SLW — I only lost a tad more than 7% for the day.

But let’s not kid ourselves, this was a shock and a murder, and I left myself vulnerable when I should have been hedging.   I know now that when my “Spider Senses” are tingling enough to make me want to cut back on some heavier positions, I should take that cue to hedge out more of the portfolio at the same time with at least sold calls.

Looking at the longer term charts in gold and silver it’s still difficult to say whether or not we are going to feel the great sucking sound again on the miners or whether we will bounce out of this dreadful day.  In some cases — RGLD for instance — we haven’t even filled gaps yet from earlier in this week.  What’s more, it looked like it could consolidate at these mid 60’s levels for a bit longer.

As for yesterday’s purchases, they were all unmitigated disasters — especially BWA — the Borg.   I’d thought I was a bit early there, and sure ‘n hell if I wasn’t. I was down well over 7% in that “toe dip” position, so I thank Jupiter’s Stone that I “went small” in the initial buy.  UPS was also down a bit over 3%, but I think the franchise name held that company up today.

Bollinger Crash Trade candidates were all over the decking today, but I think the tastiest may be the Emerging Market i-Shares play, EEM, whose twin, VWO, was the largest “buying on weakness” name today, according to the Wall Street Journal.   I believe I shall be taking advantage of that one tomorrow, for the pop play.

Off to go drown my sorrows in a half gallon jug of Hugh Hendry Blue Label Gin & Jooce (sic).

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