Happy Birthday to me (and Fly)
Happy Birthday to me (and Fly)
Happy Birthday to me-heee
(and Fly)
I’m bombed off my kneeeees.
(oh my)
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In an early birthday present, silver was off the hook today. I did not sell AG at the high today, or at any price. Nor did I sell EXK, SLW, PAAS, SSRI, CDE, HL, MVG, or even AGQ or SLV.
I did not sell them Sam I am, I did not sell those blocks of HAM. Here’s why… the plan continues generate nice returns:

 

 

Meanwhile, when I see silver start to take a convincing turn like it did today, I want to be in my prime movers to take advantage – which have been EXK and AG this cycle. Of the two, while EXK had a slightly better day (at over 9%), it was AG (over 8.5%) that today moved above it’s 20 and 50-day EMA’s. EXK will likely do so tomorrow, as it experienced a similar move to AG on strong volume. The AG chart is extremely pretty right now…

And don’t get any ideas… SLW is still the king of my silver portfolio. However, these two are important for those of us who can be nimble with the trade finger. They should be played smaller, however, to accommodate their greater risk profile. My best to you.

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Again I try to post for the second time this night. I am not making small talk when I say that if I cannot fix whatever prevents me from posting from my house, I will have to forego posting at all. Unlike the M. Le Docteur, I do not have the luxury of posting during the day, and sometimess I don’t even have the time to visit. If I cannot get this thing figured out, I will have to resign my post.

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It’s Options Expiration Friday, and there’s all kinds of odd schtuff going on.   Interestingly, I marked up the dollar chart last night, and again could only get the title to “save” to the site.  I don’t know if this is a time of day issue connected to WordPress, or if it’s something going on with my home laptop (which is fine in all other respects), but it’s beginning to wear on me bones.

That said,that glitch allowed me to get some 20/20 hindsite on my review of last night, and that may be helpful to us all.  Note how I was looking for further dollar destruction, at least to the 20-day EMA yesterday evening:

Well, what really happened, then?  Instead of breaking down to the 20-day, the dollar soared (relatively, of course), starting at about 4:30 am (EDT) this morning,  from a break-down below $75.00 all the way to $75.76 at approximately 10:45 am, before burning out like an dynamite-filled white Bronco headed to the sun and dumping 25 basis points in about an hour. 

Was that all for the dollar today?  I’m going to go out on a limb and say yes, and attribute this morning’s chicanery to folks interesting in goosing certain options positions. 

 I say that because the price of gold ($GOLD) made a curiously similar — but opposite! — dump and go at the exact same time that the dollar did.   It dropped over $18 dollars starting at 4:30 this morning as well, from $1504/0z to $1486/oz, just as the dollar made it’s mystery march, only to viciously bounce back over $29 to $1515/oz in little more than an hour and half… 

We currently stand at a nickel over $1513/0z as the dollar tries to work back over $75.50, but my “tell” that the ruse if over lies over in my pile of Jacksonian miner stocks, which continue to strengthen and all show “highs of the day” as of this typing. 

Let’s see if my little prediction above doesn’t come true after all, despite early morning chicanery on the the part of Les Grand Shacqueurs du Monde.

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Meanwhile, if you want something more exotic than PM’s, I think you may have an opportunity in the Rare Earth Metals today, and particularly in one of my faves, QSURF:

I think this morning’s brief sell-off, which stayed above the 20-day EMA, may offer some entry opportunity for the less risk averse among you.   Best to all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdXryyFw7No 450 300]

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(It’s Good to Know all I have to do is post a bizarre header and I’ll still get the comments ball rolling… BTW — I got the name of the McMurtry Book I thought I was quoting wrong.  Fixed now.)

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Yesterday, Monsieur Le Docteur asked, rhetorically, how I cope with the spleen-twisting nature of the silver markets during this bull.  Well now, let my secret be revealed:

It’s mid-80’s Billy Ocean that gets me through the day when I’m feeling low or apphrehensive.

Because there’s nothing like low budget George Lucas knockoffs set to a syncopated pop-reggae beat to get one’s spirits back in order, is there?

Anyway, I consulted by Crystal Ball du Fibonacci last night, and came away with a good news/bad news scenario in terms of near-to-mid term predictions.  First the “bad news” mid-term with the weeklies, for a longer range prediction:

Sorry, but I just can’t help think that trend line (purple, above) will not come back into play before we really get moving again.  

That doesn’t mean, however, that we can’t make some hay while the sun shines.  Here’s the daily to keep an eye on some near term targets:

So trade lithely, here, but with a razor sharp dagger.  And remember, if you get to feeling kind of bluesy, you are only one spin of Caribbean Queen away from a return to bliss.

Best to you all.

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*Note* — this was supposed to go out last night, but my posts would not save in this W-Press format last night.  My apologies.

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This good morn, I have my good squire– Ser Hasty Bottome– buckling on the last of my plate, including bascinet, gorget, grieves and curaisse.   I plan to wait out what appears to be an approaching “incident” in said plate and helm, thereby preventing my good-self from the whistling death of a well-placed morning starre or broad-axe.

Many of  you know that I use the Trannies as my dog-whistle “tell” for approaching calamity, and whilst I cannot make for certain if what approaches is the blackest of knights (sic) or the fairest of maidens, I can tell you that Ser Tran of Sporte is signaling some change in the air for us all.  Behold, yon daily rollover:

It seems quite certain that Ser Tran’s destrier hath overrun the 20-day EMA which bodes increasing dire that we shall meet once again with yon 50-day EMA (as noted) or werse!

Note the confluence of the 200-day EMA with yonder long term support line.  Coincidence, methinks?   Not verily, when one considers the weekly scrolls of magery:

Oh, blackest Wizard of Fibonacci!  What ill spells do you cast that thou longest term resistance foretells an imminent roll-over in Ser Tran of Sporte’s valiant charge? 

(turns away, bites gauntlet in shuddering grief)

And fie upon you, as yon monthly Parchment of Peregrination proves all too lucidly that your wizardly tricks have truly brought us to the final flourish of the “V” —  whether for Valiant Victory or Vanquished Villein (sic) is not yet clear.   I do believe the monthly provides ample targets for lance, bow and blade, however.  Behold!

Yon weekly and monthly parchments may yet tell the tale, my favoured small folk.   Be wise with your food stores and be ready to run to the safety of your lord’s keep should this ceiling be formidable in the near term.  Ser Tran’s level of 5,000 looks to be first tidings should we fall here.

Be well.

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Indeud, there is no doubt we stand on the edge of a knife.  Curious formations abound, and give sign.  Take heed…

And then there’s this from today:

And last… the full retrace of the original breakout in the $HUI, Gold Bug Index.  Curiouser and Curiouser:

All the daily charts point to a bounce… not so much this final weekly above, but the circumstances of support could hold here as well.   We have revisited the lows, as I’d feared we should, in order to better stabilize this rebound.   Tomorrow should be interesting.   Be well.

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