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It’s Ash Wednesday today, and I’m not sure that I’ve been sufficiently penitent, so I’ll leave off the gloating about the big win on yesterday’s pick, BAA.  Suffice it to say that choosing from the juniors yesterday was like throwing a phosphorous grenade into a bucket of comatose darter snails… not very sporting.

But effective, for sure.  I’ll just wrap with my view on where BAA looks like it can be bought again:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m also stalking AAU, here and some more AUY, but that’ll probably not be ripe til next week sometime.  The latter is my Final Four choice, however, so if you want to buy some on Friday, I’d be obliged to ye.

But it”s not just the metal that’s been golden these days, it’s been ag products as well.  I stumbled across an old Cincicrappie name I used to follow (they are now moving to Charlotte, I hear) — Chiquita Banana (CQB) .  This one’s been working itself back along with a bunch of other beat down ags, and who knows, maybe moving out of Ohio means it has a new lease on life?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whatever the case, I like it at just a touch above that $9.75 support line.   See you there.

My best to you all, my banana burritos.

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Yes Sir, Yes Sir, three bags full.

One for my Master,

One for the Maid,

And One for Le Docteur Who’s Sprawled on Butter Biers down le Lane.

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I’ve scanned the bulk of  the stocks that I follow, and save for the ones that have been ruthless stolen by my fellow bloggers, I do believe that BAA-BAA Black Sheep presents the best opportunity for profit going forward.

Note what I’d remarked earlier about this stock’s flirtation with $5.00, and how, like EXK finally did, it would one day break that barrier for once and all?

Well I believe that time has come.  Come, see the violence inherent in the system:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And here’s the daily, which also seems to indicate we are on solid ground, and probably will not rest for another quarter or so…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I also like AUY, XRA and EGO here as soon as tomorrow.  Lots of stuff will be popping, however, so keep your eyes open along with your coin purse.

Best to you.

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I’ve watched with some amusement recently as a few here have tried to use every gauge on the submarine dial in order to judge what direction the market is going.   Don’t get me wrong… there are people out there for whom I have enormous respect, and who have studied the markets to a fair-the-well for years, decades even.   Those same people are tying themselves in knots trying to read the latest tea leaf pattern on the bottom of their bone china cup.  They make it so hard, when it need not be, especially given their backgrounds, their educations… their knowledge of just what makes the market move.

Let’s face it folks, the market moves on liquidity.  That said, there are two things affecting liquidity in our U.S. and global markets.  The first is scarcity.  Yes, scarcity.  When I was a pup, in the 90’s, it was not uncommon to see 50 to 60 Initial public Offerings PER MONTH.  Now we are lucky if we get 60 IPO’s in an entire year.   Sarbanes Oxley and Dodd Frank are doing their work, and the private capital markets are filling in the gaping hole left by the public markets’ regulatory sclerosis.  Deals are getting financed and traded entirely on the private side.  Increasingly there are more and more great companies that you will never see as a Joe Six Pack investor, unless you get real wealthy and start investing in private equity limited partnerships.   That’s too bad, but I guess the “good news” is those slimmer pickings make for a more highly bid public market, just on supply and demand criteria alone.

The second and probably more comprehensive goad to liquidity is the loose monetary policy we’ve been “enjoying” since the dot-com crash and 911, and even more so since the Financial Crises (sic) of 2008.   I don’t need to tell you that the dollar has been used and abused for the last ten years, gaining only a brief respite as a “Safety Dance” during the 2008 Meltdown.   Recently, I’ve been calling the dollar’s dolorous decline with pinpoint accuracy (if I do say so m’self).  Look at this highlight reel:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eschewing cycles, I kept only Ben Bernanke and the political importance of 2012 in mind, and came up with this startling conclusion: this should not be a good year for the dollar.

So what should it be a good year for?  Funny you should ask, as I called for a buy on SLW last Friday at about ten cents below it’s actual low of the day.   I don’t plan to make that mistake again, at least not with MAG Silver (MVG).  A lot of my PM charts are showing nice signs here, and MVG’s budding return to society is shown best in this weekly:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now check out the daily to see where the best place to buy in the next few days will likely be:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m going to throw the order in at the north end of the range described above and close to that 200-day EMA.  I don’t want to get burned again by a dime like I did last Friday on SLW.  It’s accumulate time again, kids.

Best to you all.

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What do you know? After trying to fake me out by blasting past my $79.80 target today, the dollar capitulated and sold off deep to about $79.25 at the lows. It’s now about $79.40.

I think earl and gold are the plays here right now, and if you are not in my two “Samurai 7” earl plays, COP and PBR, then you want to really think hard about them tomorrow. That COP is just too phat at 8x trailing earnings and a nice yield to boot.

Moreover, I think it’s safe to say that SLW was the call for today.  Unfortunately, as I recounted in the comment section of my last post,  I missed my buy stop by about ten cents.  See what happens when you try to get finicky like that?  I think I’m better off just buying at market sometimes.

In any case, the PM trade seems to be back on for now, and besides my favorite silvers like AG and EXK, I would be looking to the gold juniors, specifically GDXJ (the ETF) and AXU and BAA if you can stomach the volatility.  Otherwise, AUY, GG and RGLD are looking good here, Lucy.

Best to you all.

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As I mentioned the other afternoon, it looks like it won’t be long now, for the dollar and the precious metal markets to once again take different tracks.  And that should mean good things for the miners, as evidenced in what appears to be an approaching turn in the $HUI Gold Bug Index.

Turns out this whole Greek fiasco is becoming something of a mud-stomp for our swarthy souvlaki-eating, Ouzo-swilling band of molotav cocktail pitchers, and it appears that the European Community might even be angling to kick the Greeks out of the Euro no matter what.  Hey, as crazy as it’s become in Greece, at least they don’t have Federal officials inspecting their kids’ lunchboxes for “nutrition violations,’ yet, eh? 

I say so be it, and let it be done.  Either way it’s apparant that Big Brother Bernank is not going to let some rock-throwing, Fiat-torching proto-Spartans ruin his very stable run into the 2012 elections (and yes, he’s running too, believe it).  So be prepared to be awash in liquidity here.  Drachmas?  Schmachmas! Take some digital dollars and shut up, already. 

Around 8 am this morning, currency traders tried to make the dollar go “pop!” but gold and silver are currently calling bullshit on all that.  Yes, these three can sometimes rise together like the greatly undervalued kings of the comedy stage, Larry, Moe & Curly (not really) in a Depression-era movie house, but more often than not, this alliance is proven false within a matter of days, if not hours.  As I type this, mean-spirited Moe (the US dollar) is taking a pratfall from it’s earlier spike over $79.60, and Larry Gold and Curly Silver (the fat, dumb one), are careening higher.

As I mentioned earlier, I will also be looking for a turn in the miners here.  My weekly chart shows us approaching the bottom of that channel I pointed out the other day:

 

And the daily chart shows an even more clear bottoming in the stochastics.  Note also we almost touched the bottom of this (admittedly loose) consolidation triangle yesterday as well.   

 

 Quite a few of my stocks popped in the last hour of yesterday’s trading (along with the whole market, of course), including my March Madness pick, AUY. 

I had thought that contest was starting this Friday, for some odd reason that seemed truly logical only in my own beleaguered head.  I think that launch would have been perfect, but in the meantime, I’m in a bit of a hole, so be sure to purchase as much AUY as possible here, and to short that hideous purveyor of ethically questionable time-share vacations, AWAY.  Thanks in advance, and…

My best to you all.

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Please do not take my lack of attendance here as proof that I do not love you.  The truth is, I’ve never left you…

All through my wild days…

My mad existence.  

 I’ll keep my promise, if you keep your distance.

(and scene). 

PS — Anyone who watched WPIX-11 as a kid in Noo Yawk knows that song by heart, if only by dint of it was the only commercial that ever played weekday afternoons between the Brady Bunch and Star Trek.   Ah, teevee, my beloved babysitter!   That’s what’s wrong w. kids these days, btw.  Not enough teevee.

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A quick repair to the dollar charts.  It seems as if old man dollar is trying to ruin everyone’s Mardis Gras by busting a move here, late Monday afternoon.  Problem is, he’s got nowhere to go.   Gold, silver, frankincense and myrhh have all sold down the last couple of days, just in time for the U.S. dollar to finally make it’s last hurrah, and look!  …

Nowhere to go:

 

 You want to fight City Hall run by the Bernank? You might as well try to fight Madonna with Whitney Houston’s Baftub.   Your arms are just too short.  Let’s see… $HUI is just about done cycling down, and the dollar’s got a date with $79.80 or so.  

As far as I’m concerned, you have your instructions.

Best to you all.

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