I’ve watched with some amusement recently as a few here have tried to use every gauge on the submarine dial in order to judge what direction the market is going. Don’t get me wrong… there are people out there for whom I have enormous respect, and who have studied the markets to a fair-the-well for years, decades even. Those same people are tying themselves in knots trying to read the latest tea leaf pattern on the bottom of their bone china cup. They make it so hard, when it need not be, especially given their backgrounds, their educations… their knowledge of just what makes the market move.
Let’s face it folks, the market moves on liquidity. That said, there are two things affecting liquidity in our U.S. and global markets. The first is scarcity. Yes, scarcity. When I was a pup, in the 90′s, it was not uncommon to see 50 to 60 Initial public Offerings PER MONTH. Now we are lucky if we get 60 IPO’s in an entire year. Sarbanes Oxley and Dodd Frank are doing their work, and the private capital markets are filling in the gaping hole left by the public markets’ regulatory sclerosis. Deals are getting financed and traded entirely on the private side. Increasingly there are more and more great companies that you will never see as a Joe Six Pack investor, unless you get real wealthy and start investing in private equity limited partnerships. That’s too bad, but I guess the “good news” is those slimmer pickings make for a more highly bid public market, just on supply and demand criteria alone.
The second and probably more comprehensive goad to liquidity is the loose monetary policy we’ve been “enjoying” since the dot-com crash and 911, and even more so since the Financial Crises (sic) of 2008. I don’t need to tell you that the dollar has been used and abused for the last ten years, gaining only a brief respite as a “Safety Dance” during the 2008 Meltdown. Recently, I’ve been calling the dollar’s dolorous decline with pinpoint accuracy (if I do say so m’self). Look at this highlight reel:
Eschewing cycles, I kept only Ben Bernanke and the political importance of 2012 in mind, and came up with this startling conclusion: this should not be a good year for the dollar.
So what should it be a good year for? Funny you should ask, as I called for a buy on SLW last Friday at about ten cents below it’s actual low of the day. I don’t plan to make that mistake again, at least not with MAG Silver (MVG). A lot of my PM charts are showing nice signs here, and MVG’s budding return to society is shown best in this weekly:
Now check out the daily to see where the best place to buy in the next few days will likely be:
I’m going to throw the order in at the north end of the range described above and close to that 200-day EMA. I don’t want to get burned again by a dime like I did last Friday on SLW. It’s accumulate time again, kids.
Best to you all.
18 Responses to Your Cycle Can’t Count
Nice post, nice calls.
If the men had had hats, they would have been tipped.
Sorry, but for some reason that link is busted for me… could be my ridick firewall…
What’s the gist?
Lol – one of your all time favs, “safety dance”.
I think I heard that on First Wave this morning on the way in.
Aside– Wtf? You are usurping my position of honour at the Florida Homestead this Spring, claiming “cuter babies?”
Everyone dating themselves, I see. Well, I’m no one to talk. I remember listening to that song in grade school.
Great call. MVG already at 9.53. I guess I missed it.
Nah, it always comes back. Do the “buy some now, leave another order later” thing.
Oh .. I see .. I’m to wait until it comes back in.
Duh .. ok that makes sense.
butterbeer stock? thanks jake!
I was scanning my watch list this morning, and noticed that AEM may have actually bottomed finally. The stock went up on earnings for the first time in forever.
I would consider buying AEM, but have sworn off of all PM Miners forever after being screwed too many times.
LOL. You know that’s what they are designed to do, don’t you?
Don’t forget to wave to the ship as it leaves the docks…
No, it’s impossible for me to wave to the ship as it leaves the dock because I’m already onboard said PM ship:)
Actually Regular Joe can participate in private offerings. I’ve worked at four start ups each handing me free money pre-ipo. Dell was one of them.
Yes, but not everyone is an engineer, financial or otherwise.
You are more rare than a PE professional, these days.
@Jake, is BRD getting ready to fly again?
Lot of better choices out there, but throw some dough if you need to hold a lotto pick.
Just remember DMG’s plight with his own tar-baby pick, GSS.
Thanks Jake. Cheap stuff always looks tempting but i am not gonna fall for it.