Monument Circle, Indianapolis, Complete with Super-Classy, Monster Roman Numeral Decor

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The precious metal sector has gone HAM, as we’ve discussed ad nauseum here these last few days.  I’m not a big crower, as I take the “That’s Life” Sinatra-version view of this crazy stock picking game.  In fact, if anything I’m ticked that I got caught with only 60% exposure to my favourite stocks in the PM sector, and having ditched my two internally leveraged stocks (AGQ and NUGT) only the day before this anti-grapist surge.  That said, my port is still well above even my Seven Samurai picks (currently at +11.4%) as of the first of the year, so things are good.

I also think I called the dollar top to within pennies (one of my predictions was that the dollar would fail at $81.50).   I think it has a bit to go, even as it may take a rest here to bounce on the support that has now become resistance (#2):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think we may get a bit of a pause here, but not much.  I will be adding on pullbacks and all the usual names will be good.

Let me take this opportunity, then, to point out my two “A” and “B” best PM stocks for the current moment.  I’ll do “B” first and admit right off that Banro — BAA is in fact, a Congo miner.  I make an exception, at least temporarily, to my rule about not taking too much political risk by noting that it controls over 2500 square kilometers of rich African resource land, and that it was incorporated (and still resides) in Toronto, Canada in 1951.  That’s a lot of embedded expertise and a lot of paid off pols in the Congo.  Consider it barrier to entry.

In any case it’s the chart I like, and when it gets back over $5, it’s going places:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yamana (AUY), my second attractive Toronto-based player, seemingly breaks my rules because of its size (over $12 bn market cap), pointing out that it may be more an acquiror than acquired.  I like it’s benign Latin American exposure, however (Mexico, Brasilia, Colombia, Chile, etc.) , and think that it’s got one of the more promising charts (this one a weekly)  thanks to a long term breakout from a lengthy consolidation:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ll be trying to take these two in the next couple of days at $4.80 and $16.70 respectively, if I can.   My best to you.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1I5n2-ro_Q 450 300]

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Within a short number of years and certainly within the decade, we here at iBC will have created our own language from whole cloth, and the only people who will understand a word we are saying will be the slavish few who have hung on here for every nuanced phrasing and reworked 70’s-era cartoon-network pop cultural reference.

In future, iBC particpants  will not seek to purchase the equity receipts of a heavily shorted security in order to force immediate re-purchase by said short sellers, but instead one will “GO HAM” on said equity receipts and save time and exertion associated with over-verbose description for other tasks.

As well, one will never speak of aforesaid unfortunate short sellers as “portfolio damaged,” or “margin overburdened,” or even “equity depleted” participants in these volatile markets but rather as members of the investment community who, good character not withstanding, have been “GRAPED,” and left for corpse-pilfering on the side of the lonely road.

Brevity being the soul of wit, such gradual neologistic replacement will not only render these fora more humorous (sic), but also far wealthier in the end.  Hang on for the ride.

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Today was the best day of the year for me thus far, and it’s been a pretty good year thus far.  For one thing, all my precious metal positions went HAM on me today, with most breaking the 5% barrier and some flirting with 10% (like SSRI, ANV and IAG).  Moreover, my two big rare-earth metal plays, QRM and AVL were also up big at over 7% and over 10%, respectively.  Unfortunatley I wasn’t fully invested, having kept quite a bit of cash on the sideline for “opportunities,” and also having sold my AGQ and NUGT just yesterday to reduce leverage and risk.

I’m not as bent out of shape about that as you might think however.  I still returned over 4.2% today, and now I do have dry powder with which to pick off new targets.

Some of those will be additional pickups of the “Samurai Seven,” of which only two are currently precious metal picks —AG (+13.4%) and RGLD (+6.7%).  Nevertheless the full portfolio is up 11.1% since inception, and that’s despite two relative laggards in the short list portfolio.

As for the winners in the Seven, I am really enjoying this 28+% run in PBR since the start of 2012, and kicking myself for not making it my “Stock of the Year” pick.   I am also well pleased with the double digit returns of DE (+13.5%) and MON (+16.5%) since our entry.

The two Samurai I shall be gobbling tomorrow, double-ham fisted, however, are my two laggards, UPS (+3.3%)  and COP (-4.0%).  Both have nice dividends and UPS is finally creeping through that ceiling we talked about earlier in the year. getting ready for a breakout.   You cannot keep a good man down, or a good company, and these two fine specimens will do us well as the Bernakean Liquidity Parade Rustles on.

My best, and red eye ham gravy, to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZSHDLIIZw8&feature=related 450 300]

Irony: The Pride of UMass Will Take on the Pats

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A late night pop-in from Giant fan land.  I am wondering how I’m going to pick stocks this next week or so with three lives deals on the broiler, and my New York Football Giants in the Superbowl.   The truth is, I’m probably going to start trimming here, and probably be more dormant than not.

Don’t get me wrong.  If the PM’s can hang in here, against the coming retracement of the overall early January move here, than I might even suggest some additions to AG or BAA or even AUY.

But for now, I’m going to trim sails and bask in a hard fought win versus the San Francisco Forty Niners and their NFL best defense.   There’s a lot to be said in the coming days about the next Superbowl game on February 5th.  The one pitting my Giants versus the New England Patriots — the teams (thought not the same team) they defeated 4 years ago in early 2008 to win the Giants’ third Superbowl trophy.   The Patriots will need little motivation to come hard in that game.  They’ve got a humiliating Super Bowl loss to get over, and they will try their damndest.

Luckily, we’ve got Eli in his Superman cape…. making it happen in the 4th quarter once again.  It should be fun.

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As I mentioned, I will be trimming tomorrow for sure, and raising cash.  I will probably get up to 60-75%, with only some core holdings untouched.

My best to you all.

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While the Samurai Seven 2012 picks continue to do well, with a 7.5% annual return thus far, not all of them are rising in concert.   Pabst Blue Ribbon (PBR), which has recently switched from selling shitty beer to becoming a monopoly owner of Brasilian (sic) earl assets (good choice, there), is my big winner with a 20.5% YTD return.   Ironically, my lagger, and only negative return thus far at (2.20%) down is another earl and natty producer and mover, Conoco (COP).  Much to their chagrin, they are actually forced to compete with other earl and natty gas companies in the U.S. and abroad.   I still like them, however, and their 3.7% dividend is a nice cushion here as well.

My other two strong returners of the SamSeven are in the agricultural space, John Deere (DE) and Monsanto (MON).  They are returning 12.4% and 15.2%, respectively, this year, not counting dividends.  My “stock of the year” pick, UPS, is muddling along, still trying to break that $75 ceiling and returning 2.9% before dividends thus far.

That leaves my two “precious” picks, of the SamSeven, AG and RGLD, which are treading water as well, at 3.2% and 0.6%, respectively for the year.   As you know, these two are dear to my heart, and I think, after a rough 2011, the PM’s will be ready to move out once again this year, thanks to our friends in Washington with the printing presses. 

Remember, this is an election year and the Fed’s Primary Directive, not unlike that of the StarFleet Federation is — “don’t rock the flagging boat.”  Whomever wins or loses in November, the Fed doesn’t want any of the blame to come to its door if it can help it.  They know, in the end, where their bread is buttered, and they sure don’t want to give Mr. Ron Paul any more ammo in a year when he’s got a tiny little bully pulpit.  Ironically, they can achieve that by printing like there’s no tomorrow. 

So what I’m watching for right here is the important “Line of Death” for the U.S. Dollar — at $81.50, which you may recall is where I predicted the dollar would stall and therefore set the market running.   Well, we banged up a little past that mark last week, and have since turned down.  Now we meet some important resistance at the $79.50-$80.00 level.    If the DX-Y fails there, it’ll be risk on, across the board, and I think the precious metals will be ready to take off in a much bigger way.

Until then, I’ll be wary, and doing much of nothing except perhaps trimming the sails here and there.   I hope to put up that long term monthly dollar chart this weekend,  to illustrate the importance of that “Line of Death.”

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Aside — I’m not a Gingrich fan as many of you know.  However, I have to admit, I’m baffled by the turpitude of the mainstream media in pushing this transparent re-hash of his divorce just days before an important primary election.   I mean, I almost have to think this is some kind of bizarre set up to give Newt an easy foil.

Could CNN really be that dumb?  I literally felt like I was watching an outtake of Idiocracy last night when the first question that blinking fool asked in the Presidential debate was about a 20 year old divorce battle.  Seriously CNN?  You call yourself a news organization?  Then what is The National Enquirer?

Really… almost too easy for the Newtster.  Stick a fork in the MSM, they are looking a bit overdone about now.

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Calling in from the road again with my apologies.  I just looked at the market for the first time today (aside from the occassional blackberry glance) and I note that my rare-earth picks seem to be coming alive like a solar juice stock on cocaine steroids.

The big winner of the day was Quest Rare Minerals — QRM— and my old chart still holds true here.   The stock increased over 25% today on huge volume (over 5x average daily volume) on news of some rich drilling successes.  Note how this big move ran almost exactly to the consolidation zone that I had laid out some months back.

I expect we’ll see this stock consolidate like AVL did the other day.  AVL was up large today as well (although only 7%+) and is also knocking back at the consolidation level we noted the other day.   These are good times to accumulate on pull backs, folks.  This volume means something here.  Others to keep an eye on are MCP, REE and GDLNF.

I note other bloggers on this site have been picking up on some of my stocks in the PM sector, and I appreciate that helping hand.

I will try to check in tomorrow… again from the road, if I can find a wi-fi connection somewhere in this jumble of tubes and molten metal.

Best to you all.

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Hat tip to Ecchy:

[youtube:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZsppOw2Mxk 450 300]

 

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A little more creepy, three and half years later?

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Small plebs, I can see now why my good friend, le Monsieur de la Mosca, supported the inexperienced young  Senator from Illinois way back in the day when we knew little about him other than that he sported a dimwitted hairplugged running mate that did not dog sled, rassle bear, or wear a brassiere.   You see, my friend is very perceptive, and seeking a strong hand in the Executive Branch in our time of trouble, he saw the inner-Generalissimo in the fresh faced Barack Obama.  He knew this guy was not going to be bothered by any such niceties as separation of powers, or heck, eveen recognition of any other powers in our triune system.

And so today, we recognize that the Monsieur’s perspicacity has won out.   The drumbeat that began with an increasingly monarchial delegation of legislative power to the President’s various bureaucratic armies at DOJ, EPA, FDA, TSA, DOE, etc. has now culminated in an unprecedented display of Caesarian flair.  

 Leveraging the work of his long expelled Democrat Congress of 2006-2010, the Emperor has now done the good work “for the people” by ignoring the Senate’s inquiries regarding the new Dodd-Frank Bank Bill-created Orwellian New-Speak-monikered Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and installing a “Czar” who will now benevolantly overlook our every credit card transaction, from your innocuous swipes at the gas station to your most illicit anonymous internet transaction. 

 Gosh forbid you should not know what you are doing with those credit cards that have been around since the early-1950’s boys and girls!   Don’t worry, though Papa-Doc Barack’s main man, deposed Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray — aka,  “The Fat Ohio Farmers’ Elliot Spitzer” — will be holding your hand every step of the way.  Just don’t you dare try to break that hand grip, though, boys and girls.

Not happy with that one questionable “recess appointment,” (made when Congress was not actually in recess!), however, Caesar Obamustus also decided he was tired of waiting for the Senate to approve his three hard left candidates to the already newsworthy National Labor Relations Board (NRLB) of Boeing Aircraft meddling fame.  Again, this unprecendented assertion of Executive power provoked questions of dicatatorial/monarchial transition across the Republic.

The real question, however, is why would an embattled President take such broad risks now, given the sordid reputation of these installed parties?  The cynical answer?  To create a political battle that will make the POTUS an aggrieved victim during an election year.  This would be a confirmation that the President believes the economy will be of little help to him in 2012, and that the “full-populist” Chavista appeal is his only angle.   Moreover, like Chavez early on in his populist socialist campaigns, the President knows he has most of the press in his pocket… at least today.  But will that be enough to carry him through to November?

Only the advancing electoral process will tell.  My bet?  The press will get sick of covering  for this kind of Executive excess.  He’ll keep the hard-liners like Paul Krugman and EJ Dionne, but some of the more traditional populist lefties will start to break from the fugue soon, and begin questioning the Emperor’s “new” prêt-à-porter selections….

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Whether it’s the current political imbroglio, or perhaps the “great news” coming out of the employment front, the dollar has decided to break back out of its recent consolidation-retrace and blast ahead nearly 75 cents on the DX Index.  Interestingly, gold and silver are not taking this big move very hard, with most of my miners down between 1.0%-2.5% (which is de minimus in our world) and even AGQ (double silver) only down about 2%.

That said, this rebound will likely last for a couple of days given my target for the dollar here at $81.50 or thereabouts, and I will likely lighten up on some of my miner holdings as a result.  I shaved a little bit of ERX yesterday and will take some more of that down as well.  One doesn’t want to be holding double-ETF’s in this environment.  I think I will be targeting around 50% cash so that I will have dry powder for when the dollar turns again.  I’ll make my moves on any retrace of the dollar today.

Best to you all.

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