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I can finally utter a sigh of relief as I settle into a relaxing half week or so of sun and stupor on the Treasure Coast.  Tomorrow, I sunbathe and wrangle with bull sharks in aquamarine waters!

HA!   Just kidding, actually I’ve got two conference calls tomorrow morning and then another 8-12 noon job on Thursday.  Then when I get back Sunday evening, I can pack my bags for all this scheiss to start all over again, this time not in the Orange Grove State, or with any mai-tais to accommodate.

Listen pals, I know I’ve begged your mercy before, but this time I think I might be straining your good will to it’s failing point.   Listen, I know something’s wrong when my only knowledge of the public markets is via reading my e-mail blasts from Chess, RC and Jeremy (The PPT ratings).  I get all kinds of garbage through all manner of metric, but those three have been my anchor these last weeks.   Meanwhile, I’ve done very little in my own portfolio — perhaps out of stubbornness, but perhaps also because I believe that the miners are so beaten down in relation to the price of gold and silver that I think this may be the best buying opportunity I’ve witnessed since the March 2009 recovery.

Yes, you heard that right.  Every metric I look at shows vast undervaluation of the precious miners.   If you never touched these things, now is the time my friend.  I am even thinking of looking at the options market here.   Today’s divergence in the PM’s versus the overall down market may have finally revealed the truth about the liquidity that cannot be denied in these names.

And somehow, it all makes bizarre sense.   Listen — we just had a deal go out that had more bids on it than anything I’ve ever been associated with in my career, and yes, that includes my time in the white shoe world of the Fortune 500-exclusive IB’s of Neuva York.  It’s a shark frenzy out there in the private markets ladies and germs… those dudes have capital– shitte tonnes of it —  and they want to spend.  You think its twin in the public market is really going to puke it all down here?  Good luck, pal.

BAA, you sick fuggers.  BAA.  Then RGLD, SLW and UPS, and MON.  At least that.

Wish me luck, and if you cannot stomach that, then wish me survival.

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The Louisville Cards went down to the infamous Junior NBA Team on Saturday evening and I have only recently discarded my widow’s weeds of mourning.  I have not neglected you, however, as my heart and my long term picks remain with you, even when my corporeal presence is otherwise occupied.

As for today, it seems the U.S. dollar is doing it’s usual plungerooni below $79 again.  When it breaks $79.60 with vigour (sic), please call me.  Until then I will be eyes forward on all of my “X” play metal picks.   Of particular interest are the siblings XRA and it’s offshoot XG (or is it the other way ’round? No matter).    XRA is currenlty up 5.5% at $2.89, and XG is up over 3.6% at $6.26.

My other X-play is on the silver side — EXK, my old favorite, up 3.8% at $9.86 this day.    For lotto type picks, I continue to recommend the accumulation of BAA and AAU, both also up today to varying degrees.  

Last but not least, let’s not forget the rare earths.  I know they are frustrating, but you will kick yourself if they take off without you.  Besides MCP and REE (the more grandfatherly of the bunch), I continue to nibble on AVL and QRM.   As always, remain cautious.  Any rebound in the dollar will negate all this good stuff, and signal us to lighten our loads.

Best to you all.

 

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Yes, the Cards kicked ass in their usual inimical, erosive fashion, but the Lucky Birds are you today, my friends, not my 13 point winning, New York Giants imitating Louisville Cardinals.  Why you ask?

Oh!  How lucky you are to be able to catch the $HUI at the 200 day moving average!   It’s not often we get there:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m  going to grab some GDX and GDXJ, today as I think we’re close to at least a tradeable bottom.  We will likely have to be somewhat nimble, but I think this might be the nadir — especially if the dollar moves down into an intermediate cycle low.  ANV and BAA are my best individual bets for the risk takers.

For those among you who are adventurous… the cheap stuff on the silver side is really, well… cheap  !  SSRI is looking especially tasty here, for example, as is AG.  EXK already started taking off yesterday.  Of course SIL is there for those looking for “pool” instead of “pond.”   Note also, the rare-earths as well.  If the dollar drops, they will all benefit.

Have a great weekend, and go Cards (and Cats and Hoosiers, whoops! I win either way on that one!).

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I just got home and it looks like the golds/silvers had a crappy day, but it also looks like the dollar is falling tonight while the commodity complex, and especially earl, are rallying.  Oversold and out of favor are my two favorite paradigms, but I’m not telling you what to do if you are nervous here.

Me? I’m gonna do like Slim and ride the bomb.  I’ve got meetings all over again first thing tomorrow so I won’t be able to look in via anything else but Crackberry til mid afternoon.  In the  meantime, if you’d like to discuss things, open-thread style — and that means anything — I declare this blog a Mario Savio Free Speech Zone.

Have at it!

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Classic Slim:

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4w36z7XnwOM 450 300]

 

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It was a little ironic the other day, I’ll admit, when I recommended the BAA trade for a “$5 Roll” (since successful) and was chided by commentator “Po Pimp” for a past recommendation that had also at one point promised a permanent place in “big boy stock” stock land north of $5.  That stock was AAU, if any attentive readers recall, and it only barely made it to $5.00 in late April of last year before stumbling and finally dropping to $2.00 by the doldrum period of last December.

I of course still owned AAU at the time of Po’s razzing, but hadn’t really studied the chart in a while.  That challenge, however, had me take another look, and what I saw last week was a stock also breaking out of a consolidation zone, just as BAA had done. Look at the weekly to see how we were breaking (even last week, if you look at the shorter candle before the present one forming this week) from a congestion zone and from an intermediate term down-channel.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last week’s promise confirmed today, when AAU surged over 15% on huge volume.  I don’t even know what the news was that drove this rocket today, and it could even just be a result of pent up demand.  One thing I do know is that this is happening more and more with the juniors, and I don’t expect it to stop very soon.   The dollar remains under pressure, as well.  I think we’ll get some continuation here, at least.

And maybe…. moooooore!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Go have a box wine tonight, on old Uncle Jake, it can’t hurt none.   I also like CDE , AG, MVG and EXK here.

My best to you all.

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Really, I’m spoiling you.  It’s not going to be like this all the time, so pay attention.  A lot of these little smoking grenades are launching right now, but not all of them (cf. the BRD is a word, a bad word, like PHUCK!).  Don’t be afraid to bring up suggestions in the forum, but right now, I’m only recommending what I’m recommending because I feel good about what the chart looks like in a rising miner environment.

Take PZG as an example.  I haven’t talked a whole lot about it in a while, but I like it right now.  Here’s the weekly, finally breaking out of a medium term downtrend:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now check out the daily.  See how it’s right against the breakout, much like BAA the other day?  That means your decision will be relatively easy tomorrow, right?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just wait for it to break that upper triangle line.  If it does not… well, you’ve got some more time to wait, that’s all.  You can turn your attention back to the psycho silver market which is blowing up as we speak.  AGQ, SLW, AG, EXK, MVG, heck even CDE and PAAS and SSRI are fair game at this point.   Of course, SIL will obviate any decision making, much like GDX on the gold side.

Enjoy this time, my friends.

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