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This late in the cycle it may be fun to be heedless, but I’d rather be hedged and sucking down vanilla egg-nogs and Weller’s Green Label bourbon (have you tried, this “plain-vanilla” egg-nog yet? — It’s ambrosial, if plain vanilla ghey).
I’ve cautioned before that I don’t know how we continue rocket-ship riding no-landing-chute style with the greenback advancing against the other fake currencies and our banking sector continuing to silently implode in mushroom cloud of unpaid mortgage invoices and increasing unemployment levels. With this new job-killer healthcare bill monster on the horizon, only a “Christmas Miracle” will serve to get us much farther up the road. Apologies in advance to the various Wile. E. Coyote “Soopha Genius” types, and their Acme- Brand ENIAC Soopah-Computers.
Here’s the latest on our [[BKX]] Philly Bank Index chart:
I said that blue line would be support until it wasn’t and it held on the first and second touches. Problem is, now we’ve got a breach of the 200 day EMA, and you can see we’re having trouble re-penetrating from the under side.
Here’s my other concern. We’ ve been having tons of trouble penetrating this 50% fib on the [[SPX]] weekly. You can see where my target lay…
If you are short term scalping, Merry Christmas, go nuts. In my humble opinion, however, this is no time to be contemplating long term cliff dives.
Off to chase more last-minute ephemera. Best to you all.
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Jake,
I’m the only one in our family who likes about one glass of egg-nog with a shot of bourbon on Christmas morning, but I’m still debating with myself whether to buy it or not as it seem to come in only 1/2 gallon cartons.
Perhaps you can advise.
Also, on a less serious note, my approximately 90% port at 2x s&p was held from Thursday night through yesterday with a nice 3+ percent gain, which I don’t want to give up.
With some trepidation (I’m ascairt), I’m hoping for a nice pull-back today or tomorrow to justify getting in on Christmas eve and staying in through the day after Christmas.
The rationale for such is twofold: (a) the the day before and after Christmas the market is up 96% percent of the time (Zweig,1997), and (b) the recent sideways movement in the s&p makes for excellent dip buying.
Of course, the above strategy is predicated on the occurrence of a reasonable dip.
To step up to this plate or not to step up to this plate..that is the question?
You are going to have to go to Messr. Le Fly for the answers to those questions. I am no short term trader, as I try to play the odds, and the trends. 96% sounds like pretty damn good odds, though. Lol.
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Although you did not ask the group- I think when you step up to the plate, don’t bet everything.
Hawaii 5 — on the egg nog. Get the whole half gallon… you’ll polish it in a couple of days. Go ahead and indulge a litte… it’s the holidays.
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Hey Jake,
I am 10% in cash right now and had a great December thanks to you guys here at iBC. I am feeling like I want to lock in profits but don’t want to miss that 96% chance of the up days around Christmas. With the hybrid score around 2.75, is it time to start trimming or wait for the new year and the score to get closer to 3?
You could hedge some positions here by selling calls out of the money, which would effectively cap your upside at that out of the money number, but also save you some dough if we get a quick flusherooni.
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Good advice, well done