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Tag Archives: Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio

Bang! Bang! Maxwell’s Silver Hammer

I was beaten like a silver gong today, and Mr. Market is telling me in not so polite terms that I’d better get the hood up on the convertible before he starts raining golf ball sized hail on my head.

I’ve been busy here so I don’t have a ton of time for comment, but suffice it to say, until further notice, we are in bunker mode.  That means I will be hedging the JCHP with double and treble ETF’s in order to make up for any downward motion in the silver and gold plays.  As well, I may either cut back severely, or totally eliminate certain positions.  

Natural Resource Partners LP [[NRP]] is an example.    I am keeping it right now, even though it is down more than 10% since inception because it carries a high dividend yield (almost 9% at inception, higher now).  However, I may get rid of it if it dumps below $20.   I may also take this opportunity to lard on some [[SMN]] or other appropriate short shields.   I will definitely add [[TZA]] — the triple short small cap —  at the open for instance, since I bot some just before the close today for my own portfolio ($24.92

I think we’ll probably get a bit of a bounce tomorrow, and I’ll be taking that opportunity to move into cash and some hedges, as I don’t think this is over.  If it’s just a short term blip, so be it.   We can scale back in when the ground is safer.   In the meantime, protecting principal (and gains) will be the paramount idea. 

I’ll update the JCHP later tonight.

Update:  One thing to keep in mind is that the US Gubb’mint needs to sell over $100 billion in bonds this week.  You think there might be a reason to jack the price of Treasuries [[TLT]] for such selling purposes?  Remember, Goldman sells these things for them.

Update: Here’s yesterday’s ugly Jacksonians.  I just picked up some TZA @ 24.85 (yes, lower than yesterday’s entry) for insurance:

Name 19-Jun 22-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 28.61  $   28.45 -0.56%   Spent most of the session up
EGO       8.20         7.65 -6.71%   Broke $8 support, next at $7.19
GDX     38.39       35.74 -6.90%   Broke TL barely, needs to get back to 36.75
GLD     91.90       90.54 -1.48%   Also broke TL, needs to see over $91.50 
IAG       9.36         9.04 -3.42%   Also beneath TL, needs $9.35
MON     80.73       78.12 -3.23%   Still on trend, needs to stay over $78.
NRP     21.99       20.60 -6.32%   Sell below $20.00  
PAAS     18.93       18.02 -4.81%   Least banged up silver today, still above TL
RGLD     43.08       41.12 -4.55%   Still above TL, 38.2% fib @ $39.50
SLV     13.99       13.54 -3.22%   Still above TL til $12.87
SLW       8.63         7.97 -7.65%   Right on long term TL today, gotta bounce here.
SSRI     18.92       17.56 -7.19%   Still on long term TL til 16.50, could get there.
TBT     54.34       53.28 -1.95%   Could easily get back to 49.25 before bounce.
TC     10.54         9.40 -10.82%   Sell all on a break of $9.25, 1/2 on gap fill 10.38
TCK     16.54       14.57 -11.91%   Sell below 14.35, long term TL @ $12.50
AVG (daily)     -5.38%    
AVG (monthly)   -12.15%    
AVG (inception)   9.39%    
Cash ( 000’s)  $       4.61    

UPDATE: The following astounding link should be clicked by all.   Keep in mind that The POTUS just asked that the Fed be put in charge of MORE of our financial system, and then watch this.

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Week’s End Respite

Lot’s of comments,  and I’ve annotated some charts, but I don’t have time to fill in the commentary yet, so I’ll just throw the charts out for now.   Many of them are self explanatory… “developing…”

Markets via the Transports, daily:

tran_daily

And weekly, with the Fibs:

tran_weekly

 

 

Now our $HUI— daily:

hui_daily1

And the weekly $HUI:

hui_weekly

Last, the Jacksonian Results as of Friday:

Name 18-Jun 19-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $   28.18  $    28.61 1.53%   Still in consolidation here. Break now $28.15
EGO         7.97          8.20 2.89%   Support @ 8, bizarre final 1/2 hour.
GDX       37.20        38.39 3.20%   Nice EOD action.
GLD       91.60        91.90 0.33%   POG flat, like all week.
IAG         9.10          9.36 2.86%   Never got below $9.  Odd last ten minutes
MON       82.30        80.73 -1.91%   A pox on Cramer. Nice final 45 min.
NRP       21.95        21.99 0.18%   Back above trend for now.
PAAS       18.59        18.93 1.83%   Nice volume today.
RGLD       41.98        43.08 2.62%   Still on trend.
SLV       13.97        13.99 0.14%   POSilver @14.23, inside day
SLW         8.30          8.63 3.98%   Triangle forming, up off the floor?
SSRI       18.13        18.92 4.36%   Nice move, but EOD red candles again.
TBT       55.76        54.34 -2.55%   Not yet filled gap @ 54.20 yet.
TC       10.50        10.54 0.38%   Flat again.   Watch for break.
TCK       16.28        16.54 1.60%   Consolidating.
AVG (daily)   1.43%    
AVG (monthly)   -7.15%    
AVG (inception)   15.55%    
Cash ( 000’s)  $       4.61    

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Hammered by My Hammers

Sheesh, I sure am glad I put that caveat in there yesterday, because all those nice high topped hammers I saw yesterday did nothing but crash off my dome all day long today.  Let’s face it, I’m starting to get a little tired of this pullback (down over 9% this month!), m’self, and even more so given the relative reasonableness of today’s market on the specifically non-Jacksonian financial sector today.  Talk about a victory for the bloody Redcoats!

That said, I haven’t stopped picking up shares in various stocks that I consider bargains at these prices.  I’m just flabbergasted at how low ((SSRI)) and ((PAAS)) and ((SLW)) have gotten.  I bot more SSRI yesterday, and got another 2k of SLW today (at $8.26 on the gap fill), so I guess tomorrow is PAAS’s day?

For those of you who have been accumulating slowly here, bravo.  The Jacksonian Portfolio is defintely a Spartan marathon and not a dash to the corner deli for a pack of Kools and a pint of Sunny Delight.   This “bucking bull” volatility is going to be here for the duration,  so we’re going to have to “get in shape” by taking some cash off the table from time to time, like I did with ((TC)) the other day.  

As you may recall, that 1/3 TC sale and the liquidation of the original TSO position left me with some $14,607 in cash from the original portfolio.   I finally decided to put the bulk of that to work with an initial $10k position in ((TCK)), as we’ve contemplated.  It didn’t hurt that TCK was having a good day, let me tell you.  Now I have $4.6 k left in cash, and soon I’ll begin incorporating the cash component into the overall returns as well.   It doesn’t make any sense to take profits and then not incorporate that into the total return of the portfolio. 

As well, I’ve decided to be a bit more “illustrative” in this account by dealing with hedging in a different way than I do in my personal account.   As it’s too complex (and annoying)  to incorporate the short calls I usually use to hedge my portfolio, I will more simply sell portions (or all) of the  Jacksonians in order to accrue cash in the portfolio and take risk off the table.   I think that will probably be easier for you all to follow as well.   Your comments are welcome. 

I haven’t much in the way of commentary on the Jacksons today other than my notes below.  I will say that we continue to be brutally oversold, and we are due for a cycle low here in the precious metals any day now.  I continue to believe you will be rewarded for your perseverance here. 

Because I felt bad about all these bloody Jacksons (save TCK) I figured I’d dig up one “present” for tomorrow… a non-Jacksonian I did the fibs on tonight is [[MTL]] — Mechel OAO.  Coking coal, steel, molybdenum, it’s got it all.   I like it because it touched beautifully off the23.6%  intermediate term fibonacci line today and it looks like it’s ready to go again.    The other one I like for tomorrow we’ve already discussed… PPT favorite [[SPAR]].  Best to you all.

Name 17-Jun 18-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $   28.88  $     28.18 -2.42%   Will sell half on a break of $28.  Gap fill at $26.60
EGO         8.65           7.97 -7.86%   Trend line @ 7.78.  Bearish engulfing says we get it.
GDX       38.23         37.20 -2.69%   Failed hammer, back to support.
GLD       92.35         91.60 -0.81%   POG $934, within yest range
IAG         9.65           9.10 -5.70%   Sell 1/2 on break of support @ 8.75
MON       81.08         82.30 1.50%   Cramer beat it up tonight, a net positive.
NRP       22.13         21.95 -0.81%   5 red days in a row? C’mon already!
PAAS       20.39         18.59 -8.83%   Uptrend line at 17.95. Pssin me off.
RGLD       43.73         41.98 -4.00%   Hammer doji on trendline, EOD buying
SLV       14.12         13.97 -1.06%   POSilver @14.24, inside day
SLW         8.80           8.30 -5.68%   Filled that last gap at $8.27, bot 2k more $8.26
SSRI       19.22         18.13 -5.67%   Do not like this action one bit.
TBT       54.17         55.76 2.94%   Gap @ 54.21.  Could come back once more.
TC       10.50         10.50 0.00%   Perfect doji day.
TCK       15.31         16.28 6.34%   Nice first day on the job.
AVG (daily)   -2.32%    
AVG (monthly)   -8.32%    
AVG (inception)   13.91%    
Cash ( 000’s)  $       4.61    

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These Fibs Don’t Lie

Well it was a day so full of hammers in the Jacksonian portfolio that we could have built a break front works that would have repelled the stoutest of cavalries.  You can see my comments in the notes about them, but generally a lot of hammers means that you are seeing final bottomings in stocks as they open high, chase a bunch of sells lower and then close high again, working out final selling positions.

I say this happens “generally,” but we shall see what happens tomorrow.    The good news is we’ve gotten to pretty oversold conditions in almost all of the Jacksons, so those of you who have been picking up bargainst these last few days, bravo.   I think we shall see some action as we head towards the end of the week.   As it’s options expiry, I hope it’s not that X-rated kind of action no sensible gentleperson wants to see.

I was doing some work on fibs, but I have to run to a lacrosse game, so my findings will have to wait until an addenda is readied with my findings.   Let’s just say these ten year fibonaccis are, in the words of Commander Spock “Quite fascinating, Jim.”

Many apologies to those not named Jim.

Here are the “notes,”  I will talk to youse latah.

Name 16-Jun % Change 17-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 29.04    $ 28.88 -0.55%   Still in triangle consolidation.
EGO       8.51         8.65 1.65%   Bullish engulfing, two days black now.
GDX     38.37       38.23 -0.36%   Nice hammer on the day, despite slight down.
GLD     91.93       92.35 0.46%   POG $940, beautiful hammer.
IAG       9.54         9.65 1.15%   Hammer off the 23.6% fib, too.
MON     81.62       81.08 -0.66%   Opened down, nice recovery.
NRP     22.44       22.13 -1.38%   Red hammer just above the 38.2% (22.05)
PAAS     20.74       20.39 -1.69%   Held support at $20, oversold like a mothah!
RGLD     42.90       43.73 1.93%   Bouncing on 43.50, another EOD selloff?
SLV     13.99       14.12 0.93%   POSilver @14.34, $13.80 support held
SLW       8.92         8.80 -1.35%   Hammer on $8.50 support, nice trade PPT!
SSRI     19.62       19.22 -2.04%   I bot it one last time as promised! $19.02.
TBT     53.59       54.17 1.08%   Bot back 1/2 my calls today as promised.
TC     10.68       10.50 -1.69%   Caught support @ 9.60 and then took off. Hammer.
TSO     14.98       14.98 0.00%   Is TCK the replacement, let’s hear your vote!
AVG (daily)     -0.17%    
AVG (monthly)     -7.44%    
AVG (inception)   16.22%    

______________________________

PS — note the final comment on TSO, which goes away soon.  I am seriously thinking of adding [[TCK]] which I added today at $15.04, to the Jacksons.   It’s only serious competition is [[BHP]].  What say youse?

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Green Shoots in Gold Fields?

Oh I had a great picture for today.   You shoulda seen it.   Larry Kudlow, nekkid, save for a  leprechaun’s chapeau and a human sized version of the parti-coloured (sic) NBC Peacock’s fan jutting from his ass-quarters,  carrying a wee pot o’ gold for the Jacksons.

Alas, Vincenzo is still in back of the cold room there, with the sand blaster and the servers.  You know that marinara gravy, it is recalcitrant.   So you’ll just have to use your imaginations.

On to today.  First, with regard to the new Jacksonian pick:  I still haven’t made it, but today I ruled out any natural gas plays.  If you are interested in the reason, please visit The Caveman Forecaster’s blog for a great post on the natural gas market, and be sure to read the comments that follow it as well.   Short version:  natty is just too volatile and not a great long term performer due to its seasonality, and therefore not a good candidate for long term value like a Jackson should be.

So we’re just going to have to nominate another candidate.  The door is still open for your suggestions.

Today, I have to admit I was leaning in the direction of the gold camp again (surprise!).   I told you in the post previous about my increasing interest in Gold Fields Ltd.,  which had an almost mystical meeting with it’s long term (ten year!)  61.8% fibonacci retrace today at the low of $11.42, from which it bounced nicely to close today at $11.58 (+2.75%).   I bot a starter position a little higher than that, at $11.67 today.

I also reiterated that the junior miners — as expected — seem to be leading the recovery from our pullback here.   For example the non-Jacksonian “Three Golden Horsemen of N”  juniors — [[NG]], [[NGD]], and [[NXG]] were all up 6.72%, 7.97 % and 4.29%, respectivley.   As mentioned I added to my stores of NG today at $4.94.    Oh yeah, another junior gold I own that did well today was [[ANV]] up 5.69%.

I also added to SLW today at the propitous price of $8.88, even though I own gobs of this one already.   I just couldn’t hold off with it below $9, and may add again.   Stylene of The PPT also added some SSRI at $19.41, and I was jealous even though I was “full up” in that Jacksonian stalwart already.   Some of my last purchases in SSRI were higher than that level!  

I think the silvers may have begun to feel out a bottom today as well, as you will see in the Jacksonian performance.   In fact, the precious metal component of the Jacksons  is now “market divergent,” although I’ve a feeling the market will catch up with us tomorrow.

Name 15-Jun 16-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $ 28.83  $ 29.04 0.73%   Another doji, but crawling back up the triangle.
EGO       8.28       8.51 2.78%   Nice junior-joining movement at EOD.
GDX     37.97     38.37 1.05%   Nice inside day, showing a change of direction.
GLD     91.10     91.93 0.91%   POG back to $935, nice step.
IAG       9.25       9.54 3.14%   Oversold yesterday, joined the juniors today.
MON     84.97     81.62 -3.94%   Sued by rival, still on trend.
NRP     22.99     22.44 -2.39%   38.2% fib @ 22.05 decent entry
PAAS     20.95     20.74 -1.00%   20.70 support held, still flabby.
RGLD     41.81     42.90 2.61%   Didn’t like EOD selloff… 41.50 in future?
SLV     13.83     13.99 1.16%   PO Silver still on 50 day EMA! – ($14.16)
SLW       9.25       8.92 -3.57%   Big support in the $8.50 range if we’re “lucky” 
SSRI     19.92     19.62 -1.51%   If this got to $19, I’d buy it one last time. 
TBT     55.49     53.59 -3.42%   Getting ready to buy back the sold calls at $53
TC     11.05     10.68 -3.35%   Support bounce at $10.40.  Still w “the market?”
TSO     14.98     14.98 0.00%   Not natties to replace, so don’t even say it.
AVG (daily)   -0.45%    
AVG (monthly)   -7.28%    
AVG (inception)   16.47%    

Unattended Addenda: No vids postable this week either,  but this is pretty funny fun that is funny (hat tip to the Big Swan).

Wednesday Morning Update:  Bot 1k more SSRI @ $19.02.   Bouncing on lower channel and support.

Wednesday Morning Update:   Of all the junior golds I mentioned yesterday, [[ANV]] is showing the strongest relative strength, which bodes well for it’s continuing performance as this market turns back up for us.    I may add a little here as well.

Wednesday Morning Update:   RGLD filled that gap from back on 6/12.   Currently (@ 12:23 EST) seems to be in “full recovery mode” at $44.23 (+3.10%).    This is perhaps my most treasured Jackson, as you know.    Hat tip to “Glud” for the shout out on CA’s blog.

Wednesday Afternoon Update:   I may have found the new Jacksonian.   I really like the pullback on [[TCK]]; especially when considering it’s pullback — almost to the  penny — to it’s 23.6% long term fib line (officially 14.52).   I bot a small starter here (1.5 k shs) @ $15.04.

Wednesday Afternoon Update:   Might do a whole post on this but I am starting to look at other “ten year fib charts” since I got such curious results from GFI and TCK today.  Just pulled up SSRI’s and it’s 61.8% fib was right at $19.01!

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Blankity Blanking Dollar

No pics today and probably for the rest of the week, until Vincenzo hoses the rest of the marinara gravy from the insides of the server box.  Today it’s just going to be a blank day, as that’s as good as any for a day when my language was pretty regularly depicted — old timey-style — by whirling spirals, jumpy stars, cock-eyed exclamation points and the 1950’s film noir tough guy utterance–  “blankity blankin’ blankity blank!!”

Only I wasn’t talkin’ about no dames, see?

No I was talking about the hard money portfolio that is your dear General Jackson’s.   We got shelled like Francis Scott Key’s famous banner at Fort McHenry.   Part of the reason was the undeniable strength in the dollar.   [[UUP]] , our proxy, was still spiking toward the end of the day.  The other part was the rush to the exits by all the Late-Comer Charlies that climbed aboard the magical precious metal bus last month only to depart in a frightened huff early in this one.

They must have forgotten that we’rein  a bull market right now, and it’s in the “money” that does not easily squander. 

They must have forgotten also that bulls, in the opposite manner of sleepy bears and their Siren’s rallies, try their damndest to take as few folk as possible with them on their ride to massive gains.   These last two days’ bronco riding are ample evidence of that.   So are we going to get pistol whipped off this bull like a bunch of mewling woosies,  merely because we’ve been bootstomped something sore?

No, we are not.   In fact, as I reported, I took this opportunity to grab some more double silver — [[AGQ]] today when it bounced off it’s long term 38.2% fib and it’s short term 61.8% fib in the $43.70 area.    I am prepared to add one more time should we see additional weakness tomorrow.    I am liquidating more frivolous holdings in order to ready myself.

In the meantime, you lucky ducks who were late to last months party are beginning to see some juicy bargains.   Nibble stealthily here, like a Persian guinea pig inside the mink lined trunk of a ’36 Bugatti, at each of the Jacksonians.   None is more attractive right now than SSRI, which, were I paying closer attention, I would have grabbed more of today, despite my already full plate in the name. 

As you know I’m particularly fond of silver and think it egregiously undervalued here, with gold once again at almost 66 times the price of silver.   So I will buy SLW, SSRI and PAAS first,  but note my maunderings below in the notes section of the JCHP Report — almost everything is now on sale.   I say that because we pulled back even further than I thought on the weekly and exactly to the trend line on the daily today (part of my reasoning for buying AGQ). 

hui_dailyii

Look at that strike of the trendline.   And also note the oversold condition of the stochs.    I’ll be looking to reap and gather tomorrow in the fields of Jackson. 

And here’s today’s bloody Jacksonian Core Holdings Portfolio results:

Name 12-Jun 15-Jun % Change   Comments
ANDE  $    29.79  $    28.83 -3.22%   High top doji, second day of rest.
EGO          8.79          8.28 -5.80%   Could see $8 again, but good support @ $8.15
GDX        39.54        37.97 -3.97%   Strong support at 37.50, ideal entry.
GLD        92.17        91.10 -1.16%   POG only down a little more than $7 –
IAG          9.85          9.25 -6.09%   Egregiously oversold, closed on the ST trendline
MON        86.54        84.97 -1.81%   Low volume down day, still on ST trend
NRP        23.85        22.99 -3.61%   Still on uptrend, 38.2% fib @ 22.05
PAAS        22.04        20.95 -4.95%   $19.80 is the 38.2% retrace.  Support @ 20.70
RGLD        42.64        41.81 -1.95%   Low volume down day, stopped on 13 wk EMA
SLV        14.63        13.83 -5.47%   PO Silver on 50 day EMA right now ($14.14)
SLW        10.05          9.25 -7.96%   LT 38.2% retrace is $9.00 — prime entry
SSRI        21.95        19.92 -9.25%   Up to $20.27 in AH.  That’s the trend line.
TBT        56.59        55.49 -1.94%   The least of my concerns.
TC        11.76        11.05 -6.04%    $10.81 is 38% retrace.  Tapped today.
TSO        14.98        14.98 0.00%   Have you thought of his replacement yet?
AVG (daily)   -4.21%    
AVG (monthly)   -6.76%    
AVG (inception)   17.02%    

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