Only 35% of the crowd got it right; Dow -1000 points

… you know what I’m talking about.  (http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/?p=2077)

-400 point drop after the announcement today, and about -700 point drop after the initial rejection. 

That makes it over a solid -1,000 points dropped on the Dow, attributed to the news surrounding the Bailout Bill.

 -300 point drop after the Senate voted in favor for the Bill.

So ask yourself, should I really be trading the news?  Would I rather be holding positions on hope, or on fundamentals?

Too many people trying to catch the Bailout Bounce.  Well, you were all too early.  A weekend too early.  Next week we rally as the Vix drops below 40.

Aloha,
gio

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Short FXP at 2x = bullish

Short FXI at 1.5x = bearish

 

… the problem is getting shares to short FXP.  I’ve been trying all day to short FXP.

[[fxp]]

[[fxi]]

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Thanks for all the votes.  So, who got it right?

Another Bailout Poll Will market move dramatically UP or DOWN when the House votes on the Bill???
The House will pass the Bill this time, and the market will rally!	37.2%	89
The House will pass the Bill this time, but the market will fall anyway.	35.1%	84
The House will reject the Bill and we will fall hard again. Doh!	14.6%	35
Regardless of how the House votes, the market will do nothing special.	9.6%	23
The House will reject the Bill, but because this market is queer, we move up.	3.3%	8
total votes: 239

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Jake is a master on the Ukulele.  I’ve met him a few times… he used to play at Borders trying to sell CDs and stuff.

This song, “While My Guitar Gently Weeps”, once again connects well to our market, especially with the amount of passion Jake puts into this piece.  I would say we are at 3:04 with the dramatic swings in the stock market, and I’m waiting for 3:57… which would be capitulation.

Aloha, and enjoy the music!

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First time around… what were we off, by like 20 votes in the House!   KaBoOoOm!! Market drops -777 on the slim rejection.

Now, the drama continues as the Senators sent the Bill straight back to the House with an overwhelming 74-25 vote late Wednesday (hey, why is one vote missing?) in favor for The Bailout.

Well, this has got me, and I’m sure a lot of you thinking…what will happen this time around when the House gets a second chance to pass the Bailout Bill? Hmmmm…

Now here’s why I want you to vote, and train yourself to think in scenarios:  As you sit there with a bunch of cash, you need to be prepared for any scenario.  Before the market reacts to the news, you need to have at least 5 strategies on how to trade it.  Here’s a little tip:  Create a 2×2 matrix, put two coloumns in each square.  Now list what stocks you will get long or short if a certain scenario plays out that day in each box.  Now, when the news hits, find which box has the most of your predictions playing out… now, trade stocks in that box.  You will dramatically improve your day trading and swing trading because you will not be trading on emotion, but reacting on your (rigged) instincts.

Thanks for voting.

Aloha!
-gio-

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So far, this list is brief.  But I can sense some serious sector rotation going on.

– Stocks to bounce:  Last time I pointed out the huge weakness in the shippers.  The next two days stocks like EXM and TBSI dropped over 30%!  Yesterday may have been an interesting point.  Use yesterday’s intraday tape to calculate entry points for shippers for an intraday bounce:  DryShips Inc. [[drys]] , TBS International Limited [[tbsi]] , Diana Shipping Inc. [[dsx]] , Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd [[exm]]

Swing Trade Notes

– Buy on the dip:  Energy select- HK, GMXR, CLR, ENER

– Short on the spike:  C, ZION, BOH

–  Long term short:  FXP, SKF, ISRG, TRLG, MELI (A meli a meli a meli… down -50% since I rec a short, about 3 weeks ago).  I still don’t like retail.

–  Short term short, on a spike:  Gold stuff (fading the inflation scare)- GG, GLD, SID (haha, just kidding on SID)

–  Long term long:  HANS (new buying interest detected)

– Bottom fishing:  MEA, ZNH, FMCN, NYX, ICE (liked that CME reversal!), VISN

–  Stay away from tech!  AAPL and GOOG leading the group down.  AAPL to double digits in about 2 months?

–  Watch the beat up momo stocks for volume:  FSYS, CNQR, QSII

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