Big Wave Index start 9/2/08: AFAM, KNDL, CCC, DXPE, FSYS, QSII, GEOY, JRJC, CNQR, ATHN

Hello traders!  Ready for September? Let’s surf…

Here’s my top 10 stocks to trade this week, in what I call the “Big Wave Index” (gotta keep the Hawaii theme going)  It’s a short week, so just dip, don’t dive.   Buying stocks on the gap down is not part of my criteria for Wave Trading.  Therefore, with oil down $8 I will not include any oil stocks in this index (all the energy/commodity related stocks were removed from this index.  However, I will try to buy some on a gap down).  You need a “wave” = trending stock moving up, or down, backed with volume.  These 10 stocks should do the trick.  Remember, don’t put all your money in one stock.  Pick six, and ride the wave.

AFAM
KNDL
CCC (breaks 10-week base)
DXPE
FSYS
QSII
GEOY
JRJC (volume picking up.  Quiet breakout)
CNQR
ATHN

Link:  5-day chart Big Wave Stocks
Link:  3-month

… I haven’t scored these stocks, so I will probably purchase some near close of Monday.  I’ll update you on the ratings later.  All are very day-tradable on a trend.  If you’re day-trading these stocks on a breakdown, set your entry to previous day’s low point to increase probability of sell-off. 

Removed from last week’s list:
GMXR, CSIQ, CLR, ENER, APWR

—————————–

Other notes/surf report:

–  Look to play the gap down on oil stocks.  If there is a bottom, it will be confirmed so catch the gap back up.  You may want to short some oil spec stocks since they will have continued weakness… GEOI, FTK, APWR

–  Look for possible rally, then short SKF.

– Stocks I don’t like, but hope will rise for short entry:  MR, AMED, HLF, LULU, OSTK, IRBT

Aloha,
Gio

Comments »

You may have heard this song on the radio lately.  Its one of those songs you just play, chill, and do nothing.  I performed this song at my friend’s 30th anniversary a year ago, and now there’s a Hawaiian version.  If you watch the video, you’ll notice a guy and a girl jumping from a waterfall.  I jumped that once in my life at Maunawili Falls… over 40 foot drop.  Ripped my shorts, and came out the water shaking uncontrollably from all the adrenaline.  Thrillz for realz!  Enjoy the vid… what Jason does is basically what I do on any given weekend… swim, dive, surf, play music on the beach, bonfire, skate (okay, I don’t skate), fish…

 

Enjoy your day off!  I’m off to Waimea Bay, to jump off another rock.

Or go swimming with some dolphins at Waimea…

Enjoy your day off  😉

Comments »

Winners

FXP ( +0.82% @ 88.45, bought at 87.67)

ACH ( +1.45% @ 21.63)

Losers

NCTY ( -1.40% @ 18.97, bought at 19.24)

ICE ( -3.12% @ 85.40, bought at 88.15)

IPI ( -14.50% at 47.70, short at 42.24) -partial

WIRE ( -1.57% at 18.79, short at 19.09)

Current holdings:

APWR +10.02%

CLR +4.29%

GMXR +8.49%

IEO -1.35%

IPI (short) -12.68%

MEA -15.81%

NFLX (short) -2.42%

RIMM (short) +3.56%

Trader Notes:

Aw, hey!  This is my first week that I had more losers than winners in about 19 weeks!  🙁  This is good though, because it illustrates how “Wave-Trading” needs volume + trends in order to work.  I’ve been saying all August about how thin trading would be, and have traded accordingly… make LESS trades, with SMALLER positions.  I know a lot of people trading this tape have been working REAL HARD… those that did good, probably squeezed out the toughest gains they ever had, while I am confident the majority of those dipping into the market probably lost money in August so far.  This market is trendless, and you should not make big bets on either side.  Rather, formulate an opinion for September, which usually gives you an idea of how the rest of the year will trade.

My opinion is that we will start another leg down after a little more melting up.  Right now, the Vix is holding the 19-20 spot, so I expect it to form a base here and move up… which is why I have begun shorting some stocks.  Also, there are a number of UGLY stocks that are making runs… an ominous sign for bulls.  I’ve watched junk like OSTK squeeze up.  There are also a number of tech stocks rallying back to resistance points.  Take a look at the leaders that have done so… GOOG, RIMM, AAPL.  I get the feeling tech is what will end this nonsense low volume rally, since it was tech/Nasdaq that IBD notched a follow-through day.  Give me a follow-through on a follow-through of the follow-through day, then I’ll get long. 

I think volume should start picking up by the end of the next week.  Then we can get some really nice waves to surf in this market!

I have a grad party to attend tomorrow, and I’m performing a duet to Jason Mraz’s “Lucky”, except we changed the words.  Hopefully my guitar strings don’t break.  AloHa!

Comments »

Partially covered shorts:  IPI ( -14.50% at 47.70, short at 42.24)

Completely covered shorts:  WIRE ( -1.57% at 18.79, short at 19.09)

Added to shorts:  NFLX (30.89)

Added to longs:  CLR (49.84)

IPI was supposed to be a hedge against my energy plays.  However, due to low volume market, the commodity correlations are not strong.  IPI moved on light volume, but I’ll cover some here because POT barely moved all week.

Cutting the WIRE here too.  Barely moved today when market dropped -170 points.  If a trade doesn’t work right away, cut it!

Comments »

This just in.  The folks at NASA has given the okay for the GeoEye-1 satellite to be launched.  I had two scheduled dates, one in October, and one on September 4.  Looks like it will be September.

No wonder GeoEye Inc. [[geoy]] is in the green today.

Here’s my original analysis on GEOY and the highly anticipated satellite launch.

I’ll be hanging around WallStreak today.

Comments »

From the author of, “Damn, it Feels Good to Be a Banker:  And Other Baller Things You Only Get to Say If You Work on Wall Street” comes a Wall Street musical about “Bankers versus Consultants”.  Time to settle this.  Let’s battle…

“I use the three Cs- Chicks, cash, crystal, that’s my only strategy.  You’re playing with Excel, doing nothing but grun work.”

Banker’s takes the battle:

“Your Blackberry is like 4 years old.”

“Where’s the Dow at?  Still bigger than yo bonus.”

“You try to add value? I straight create it.”

“I might work a hundred-hour week, barely sleep, do some blow off my desk while I make Red Bulls weep. Compared to what you do, my life’s a challenge. I like my bankroll, bro…”

They should have done a Bankers versus Traders.  Then load up with some Monsters instead.

Comments »