Market has been going nowhere again. Except when you have a portfolio like mine, it makes you scratch your head… “market barely moved, but my shorts are way up” kind of day. That sucks. Anyway, just been kind of sitting on my positions and they’re boring me. I’ll be making some changes in the next few days.
Notes….
– CSIQ +10% ouch, but YGE is down. These usually move together, so this divergence favors bears. I’ll hold for another day. Any bounce in solars is a good short.
– Coffee still fighting the bears: GMCR about to break out again. Expecting CBOU to give me a relief rally. Why else would I buy it?
– Gold and silver have had healthy corrections. If everything goes according to the book, they should be good longs for the next few weeks. Although, I personally would like to burn the book.
– China shorts are still good. But if commodities do bounce, which I fear, then China related plays also move up. It’s a weird correlation. Maybe because they have all our gold?
– Stay away from FAZ and FAS… unless you are shorting both at the same time.
– TNH broke under 100… FINALLY!! Dumb fert. This thing is going down.
– The mobile network stocks are in-play. I think this is Fly’s favorite area to trade. Anyway, I’ve been doing some research on some smart phones, and it’s going to get interesting. STAR is your best bull in this play. And betting against PALM this summer will get you in trouble.
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Kneale takes a swing at Woodshedder. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1181729017&play=1
… Wood with the TKO.
Gio – are you down on FAS because it’s played out this round, or in general? I would think FAZ would be a powerful tool in the hands of a short meister but I almost never hear anything good about it. I gotta think if GS and the market pukes down / fails on this run of the tape, FAZ will have one of the best runs of it’s life.
It probably would be without me. I stopped buying FAZ about the third time I lost money on it – but FAS has been incredibly good to me on many occasions (including the last couple of days). I do watch it like a hawk and normally would only trade it during what I perceive to be momentum time frames (days). I bought friday, since we were heading into GS earnings – seemed as (and fortunately played out) a decent bet as long as the overall market didn’t take a header. Unless there’s some serious momentum at the end of the day tomorrow I’ll probably get rid of it rather than hold and pray for 4th up day.
I know it has problems in up and down / sideways trading periods, but during trending periods it seems like a gift. I was insane and lucky enough to hold it for many weeks straight during the april – may period and was extremely gifted then too.
Thanks again for your time in discussing ALGT and OZRK – I picked up NFLK today for the same reasons. Did pretty well, I cashed out of ALGT at 5% early to raise my percentage of cash, I’m riding OZRK through the excitement of tomorrow. Balance of my stuff is IAG, PAAS, and AGQ – comfort level courtesy of my reading of Jakes blog and a few correspondences over the last few months. I’m trying to learn coffee…
You know what has become my main reversal indicator since the VIX and the TRIN fell off the map on Monday?
EUR/USD and the UUP – UDN wedges… All because I trade commodities and that’s about all I trade (with tech being the “other stuff”).
I completely agree with you on silver and gold… Time to rampage my man, it’s earnings season!
Paas looks like a good silver bounce. SLW too.
I think the 3x etfs are more like options, so they’re not good for longterm holds unless you short both sides. However, if you managed to patiently score a win in FAS, i suggest selling on the rips.
I’ll be buying some ORCC and STAR this week for a swing. I’m kind of busy this week so i’ll try to tweet the buy if I can’t post on the road.
Thanks for the update GIO. You really think solars are that screwed? Wouldn’t they go up with commodities?
Docs – I’m short FAZ it feels good. I lost a tone of money on it in March thinking ok we’re going down again… But then it never happened.
I called this rally on the ppt…. Too the day! Holla!
Still holding ANCI and JASO. looks like i’m back to green green on the long long.
Good advice Gio, got out of FAS throughout the day – my dad rarely said much about the market except the pigs get slaughtered thingy – but the almost 30% return over the past few days creates a serious addiction to juiced returns.
I know it might make many folks here puke, but do any of you iBC guys maintain a portion of your accounts in high dividend stocks outside the US? Although I enjoy it immensely, I don’t see myself as a pure day or swing trader.
I’m looking seriously at winning the inflation scenario down the road, and see opportunity with high dividend stocks in net positive (export) countries. They should be major winners over what may be challenging times ahead including a market with low volatility. I do do poorly when the market does not move around.
On my radar; TMB and BRP (Brazilian telecom), then what may be riskier AWC (Australian Aluminum) and NTE (Chinese semiconductors), and a bunch of Canadian energy trusts; HTE, PGH, ERF. Such a portfolio could today easily yield 10%
I’m looking to allocate perhaps a 1/4 to 1/3 of my portfolio to them on a pull back, and doing my best to forget I own them.
no high yields for me. but it is good to allocate through these overseas plays. canadian energy trusts actually are the “safest” yield play. actually they pay out distributions. the only thing about them is that they too are timed, in that they last as long as their oil field does. so that presents a situation where you have to plan your exit. if the stock just drops due to oil depletion, then those rates wouldn’t have mattered. just another view to consider.
Anyway, stick with iBC for the long run, you’ll do fine.