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Joined Dec 4, 2012
307 Blog Posts

Daily Playbook & Earnings Due For Next Week

December 14, 2012

In After Hours Trading

ADBE (+.05), CIS (0.10), NDSN (+.01), ZQK (-.02), PAY (0.00).

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +2.20, DJI +27, NDX -2.0 with fair value flat) Asia higher ex Japan and Europe mixed. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude Futures lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.0001. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Notable names next week SHFL FDS JEF SAM AIR ORCL FDX GIS NAV KMX CCL CAG DFS DRI KBH CTAS FCEL MU NKE RHT RIMM TIBX WAG.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

No earnings due this morning or after the close.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 910 stocks rise and 2113 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 926 rise and 1543 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is negative but we remain with the buy signal but a turn may be forthcoming. We are back to invested on the Madison Market TimingIndicator.

 

Economics

November CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to -0.2% from 0.1%. Meanwhile, at 9:15 a.m. EST November Industrial Production is expected to improve to 0.2% from -0.4%.

Politico

The hrose trading over the fiscal cliff continues between House Speaker Boehner and President Obama.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst Meetings CNC LUV ITW SMG ASTX AVGO. FB lockup expires on 156 millions shares.

Conference of Note

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs MRO TIVO
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup HST LFRGY TDW GLF HOS
Barclays
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard
Merrill Lynch ZUMZ
Jefferies ESV SNY
Oppenheimer
RBC
Bernstein
Stifel Nicolaus
Societe Generale AZN
Keefe Bruyette
Friedman Billings
Robert W. Baird
Needham
Nomura DVA SPW

Comments »

Sticking With P, Pigs Get Slaughtered

We wrote about P the day before earnings and recommending buying with a put. It brought out entry cost down to $8.91. The stock is at $8.54 this morning and the short squeeze is on with Erlanger Volume Swing staying about zero which is a big plus.

The chart below shows that many shorts are still in this name and that buyers are still hanging in there. The stock sold off NOT on earnings but guidance over the fiscal cliff. If the can is kicked down the wrote, then P could squeeze shorts that are being rather piggy here with big gains. Remember the most you can make on a short is 100%.

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Daily Playbook “What Will Move Markets Today”

December 13, 2012

In After Hours Trading

AVNR (-.01), RH (+.03).

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -1.20, DJI +5, NDX unchanged with fair value flat) Asia lower ex Japan and Europe lower. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.0035. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

ADBE NDSN PAY ZQK due after the close. No earnings due Friday morning before the open none of note.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

CIEN (-.01), HOV ( ), PIR (+.01).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1473 stocks rise and 1559 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 982 rise and 1502 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive and is now back to a buy signal. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

November PPI and Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to -0.5% from -0.2% and improve to 0.5% from -0.3%. Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Politico

Fiscal Cliff discussions continue and sound bites will impact markets.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst Meetings PSX HI UTX. Conferences of note Gabelli Annual Best Ideas Conference, Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2012 Denver Health Care One on One Conference, Desjardins Capital Markets Materials Conference and Montreal Energy Conference.

Conference of Note

M & A News

Former head of Best Buy (BBY) may bid for the company.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs YUM AVGO AXS UTHR IRF
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup BKW EAT LLTC
Barclays
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard
Merrill Lynch
Jefferies VRA NBR
Oppenheimer
RBC
Bernstein
Stifel Nicolaus
CLSA
Keefe Bruyette
Friedman Billings
Robert W. Baird
Needham PPLXS

Comments »

Shorts Digging In Their Heels In Front of Fiscal Cliff

Short interest numbers for the NYSE are reported for the period of settlement date November 30th. Short interest numbers have increased to 13,670,086,010 from 13,604,232,418 shares for an increase of 65,853,592 shares or 0.48% with 1967 advancers and 1517 decliners and seen more advancers than decliners in 38 of the last 75 initial reporting periods.

During this period on a trade date basis (11/12 to 11/27), the S&P rose 1.37%. The conclusion is shorts continue to add as the market rallied. There have been increases in seven of the last fourteen reporting periods. The next short interest collection covers from 11/27 to 12/11, the S&P 500 rose 2.07% with Tuesday cementing the change.

Short interest numbers for NASDAQ are reported for the period of settlement date November 30th. Short interest numbers were 7,779,511,734 shares from 7,585,572,651 shares for an increase of 193,939,083 shares or 2.56%. There were 1597 increases and 917 decreases. In the last 75 reporting periods, NASDAQ has seen more advancers than decliners in 42 of the 75 last reporting periods.

Dedicated short sellers lost -0.43% in October, as reported by www.hedgeindex.com and now YTD -12.66% while the index made 7.32% in 2011. For 2010 this index was down -17.79%. For 2009 this style lost -14.62%. In 2008, short sellers lost -1.52%. In 2007 short sellers made 4.14%.

Later today we will post some selective comments once Phil Erlanger updates his comments as well.

Comments »

Daily Playbook

In After Hours Trading

MCP fell in after hours after its CEO Mark Smith resigned.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +3.70, DJI +24, NDX +6.50 with fair value lower) Asia and Europe higher. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.01. Prices as of 8:00 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

RSTO AVNR due after the close. Due Thursday morning before the open none of note.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

COST (+.02), JOY (+.01).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2045 stocks rise and 971 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1762 rise and 713 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive and is now back to a buy signal. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

None of note.

Politico

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its follow-up action to Operation Twist. Decision due at 12:30 p.m. EST. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke to speak at 2:15 p.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst Meetings AKAM TSO ENR AET EMN BFO. Conferences of note Dell World, Wedbush Securities Consumer Conference, Macquarie Global Metals & Mining Conference and the Annual Alzheimers Drug Development Summit.

Conference of Note

Power-Gen International Conference.

M & A News

No deals of note overnight.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan DDD STX
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Barclays
Wachovia/Wells Fargo SF
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard
Merrill Lynch CPLP
Jefferies
Oppenheimer
RBC
Bernstein
Stifel Nicolaus
CLSA
Keefe Bruyette
Friedman Billings
Robert W. Baird TW PB
Needham
Cowen
PiperJaffray ALNY TTWO
Dahlman Rose
RBS
Raymond James
CIBC
Dresnder
Key Banc ABM

Comments »

Calls Aplenty In Materials Space

Options Plays in The Materials Sector

[Image 1]The rows in the options matrix are as follows:

  • Curr Vlm = Current Option Volume for today
  • OpVol20 = 20 day Option Volume average
  • % Delta (sorted descending) = Curr Vlm/ OpVol20 * 100
  • Sym = Symbol
  • 20 HV 100HV 252HV = 20 day, 100 Day and 252 Day Historical Volatility
  • Slope = The slope of the historic vol
  • Delta = Change in slope
  • cOptInt = Call Open Interest
  • pOptInt =Put Open Interest
  • cVolum = Call Volume
  • pVolum = Put Volume

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Not A Time To Buy Retailers

The seasonality of retail stocks and the Retail HOLDRS (RTH) is now in a downward trend that ends in late January. If you are considering buying retail stocks in the RTH or the RTH itself, then wait until late January and you may get a bargain. Our charts this morning come courtesy of www.erlangerchartroom.com.

[Image 1]

On January 30th, the seasonal downtrend ends. The above chart is the seasonal pattern. The magenta line is the seasonal direction. The blue and orange shadings off the magenta line are the best and worst periods to be long or short.

The heat map is the background coloring and we get some red in January. Seasonality is only a setup so if RTH and retail stocks buck the negative seasonal trend we would be embrace such a trend but so far that is not happening.

Only three stocks that make up the RTH have a strong Erlanger technical rank. All three are defensive plays in that they are a drug store and two grocery stocks.

[Image 2]

Comments »

Let The Squeeze Begin In AMD

Advanced Micro (AMD) now has an Erlanger Short Ratio of 7.87 with Erlanger Short Intensity of  93%. The shorts have overstayed their welcome in this name and in semis as a sector. DELL holds their analyst meeting so watch to see if semis rip on any positive news from the conference.

Hedge funds will own this name now because it is a lottery ticket and they can no longer access insider information via expert networks. Valuation models like Holt or Ativo which we prefer over Holt see AMD price target at $5.58. That is more than a double if it gets there.

We note the Price/Sales is stupid cheap on this name at 0.28. Since this name will be one of the worst performers for 2012, those that play buying the biggest dogs at year end will be in this name.  The $64,000 question is can the company muddle through its hefty debt.

Comments »

Today’s Playbook

December 10, 2012

In After Hours Trading

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti will step down.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -3.20, DJI -23, NDX -6.50 with fair value higher) Asia higher and Europe lower. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude Futures higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.0205. Prices as of 7:50 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Expected

CASY ABM IRET TEA LDR PPHM SURG due after the close. Due Tuesday morning before the open DG PTRY.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

FGP (+.04) AND CIS ( ).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1642 stocks rise and 1347 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1091 rise and 1241 fall. The S&P 500 is still below its 50 day moving average but back above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive and is now back to a buy signal. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

None of note today. Due this week PPI, CPI, retail sales and industrial production.

Politico

President Obama gives a speech on the fiscal cliff in Detroit today.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst Meetings LFUS TXN. Conferences of note Wells Fargo MLP & Energy Conference, Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference and NASDAQ/OMX Morgan Stanley Investor Conference.

Conference of Note

American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting.

M & A News

AIG to sell its airplane leasing business to Chinese investors for $5.28 billion. Wanxiang wins auction for AONE in bankruptcy matter.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs CME
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup MDU FBR
Barclays
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard
Merrill Lynch BBY

Comments »

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