We are going to roll the May $124 call to May Wk4 $128 Calls. The May Wk4 $128 is at $1.04 and the May $124 is at $1.04 as well. We remain with the short position.Comments »
We have a short recommendation on LinkedIn ($LNKD) with a call to hedge the position.
On April 28th, I noted that I was going to stay short BUT hedge the short.
Therefore, we recommended to buy 1 May $124 Calls for each 100 shares. The cost of the call is $8.85. The call is at $1.73 today and LinkedIn has fallen with the market. We will wait until tomorrow to close.
We wanted to let you know that we have not forgotten about our position. Except to see an alert on what to do if you followed our recommendation. I have a couple other ideas I am working on that will weigh in on over the next few days.
The short was put on at $114.25 and the stock closed at $125.24 today so the loss is $10.99 or 9.62%. The option loss so far is $7.12 which takes the overall loss to $16.74 or 14.65%. Hopefully, we can get a pop in LinkedIn early close out the call and remain short as it drops into the close.Comments »
Monday was a crazy day in Mad Town so here is the rest of the week ahead:
Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Monday sees Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speak at 7:00 p.m. EDT, he just spoke. Tuesday sees Federal Reserve San Francisco President John Williams speak at 12:00 p.m. EDT as does Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart with Politico’s Ben White while Dallas President Rob Kaplan speaks at 1:15 p.m. EDT.
Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and CPI, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, Leading Indicator and Existing Home Sales.
Earnings Releases. Notable releases include A QUNR HD TJX CSCO LOW WMT ROST DE CPB.
Tuesday, May 17
April Housing Starts are released at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 0.4% from 0.1%.
April Industrial Production is released at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.3% from -0.6%.
Presidential Primaries are held in Oregon and Kentucky.
Wednesday, May 18
The latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes are released for the April 26-27 meeting at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
Thursday, May 19
May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing is released and is expected to rise to 1.6 from a drop of -1.6.
April Leading Indicators are released at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 0.4% from 0.2%.
Friday, May 20
April Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 5.38 million from 5.33 million.Comments »
Any hedge fund that is crying about getting their tail kicked from February is crying over spilled milk of their own doing. Why?
The market was very oversold as the S&P 500 and other equity indexes came into their low on February 11th. A bounce was imminent and yet the majority of funds failed to adjust their beta on the short side, especially in the extremely oversold energy and material names.
Bulls and bears survive. Yet pigs get slaughtered. So many a pig got slaughtered. The ironic thing is that the slaughter failed to happen at the September low. Only at the February low. Hmm… I wonder why?
On February 24th, we wrote here that the shorts had it good cementing gains of 15% in our work after hitting a peak of 20% some 10 days before. Adjustments could have been made but the “macro” traders felt this rally was just another ill fated rally.
From my perspective, the inability to make shifts at inflexion points is an ongoing problem that is due to spending too much time on stock selection and macro analysis and not enough time on risk management. You would think that those with a long short bent would try to identify the variables that happen time again when the “long/short tsunami” takes hold. I can tell you flat out they do not.
Remember the long/short tsunami is what happens when shorts rise more than longs. We will write on the long/short tsunami soon but for now will leave you with the thought that crying over spilled milk is no way to go through life.Comments »
I think of the S&P 500 in 50 point increments as I concern myself with levels. So on April 19th support went from 2050 to 2100. It lasted two days. Before 2050 became support again.
As of this morning, we got the test of 2050 with a low of 2049.32. So if the S&P 500 continues to head below 2050 then support become 2000.
Last Friday, the S&P 500 wasted an opportunity to test 2050. The low that day was 2052.28. I commented to several institutional clients that 2050 had to be challenged before this was complete.
My oversold indicator is now at 28.92. Officially, we are oversold. A move back above 30 is a buy signal.
So the good news is we are getting there, now we just need to be patient on the nibble to add to the long side. More on this as it unfolds.Comments »
Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Monday sees Federal Reserve San Francisco President John Williams speak at 5:00 p.m. EDT. Tuesday sees Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks at 10:30 a.m. EDT. At 7:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Federal Reserve Atlanta President Dennis Lockhardt speaks. Wednesday Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari at 5:30 p.m. EDT. Thursday sees Federal Reserve Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart speaks at 6:15 p.m. EDT.
Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and construction spending, ISM Manufacturing PMI, factory orders, ADP Payrolls, Challenger Job Cuts, nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate.
Earnings Releases. Notable releases include AIG APC PFE CVS BUD PCLN BABA MRK CI EXC.
Monday, May 2
March Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 0.5% from -0.9%.
April ISM Manufacturing PMI is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 51.4 from 51.8.
Tuesday, May 3
A Presidential Primary is held in Indiana. A victory by GOP Candidate Donald Trump could cement his nomination.
Wednesday, May 4
March Factory Orders is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.7% from -1.7%.
April ADP Payrolls is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 196,000 from 200,000.
China Services PMI is due out at 9:45 p.m. EDT.
Thursday, May 5
April Challenger Job Cuts is due out at 7:30 a.m. EDT. The March number saw an increase of 31.7%.
Friday, May 6
April Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 200,000 from 215,000.
The April Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 5.0%.Comments »
I do not like the recent run up on LinkedIn ($LNKD).
However, I think it could be buy the rumor and sell the news. As such I am going to stay short BUT hedge the short.
Therefore, 1 May $124 Calls for each 100 shares. The cost of the call is $8.85. A more aggressive hedge would be to buy 2 calls per 100 shares.
If we get the drop I am expecting the stock could be at $90 tomorrow and we will give up some of the gain.Comments »
On April 1st, we recommended $CMG as a short here. The price was $465.15. It is now at $441.82 and has fallen from a peak of $447.27. So does the market know that a miss is coming?
Meanwhile, there have been 12,198 calls trading to 6,735 puts. Usually on earning one sees calls and puts pretty even. This is not even.
Our earnings momentum model from Options Research & Technology (ORATS) predicts that the stock will move by $19.44. So it could move up to roughly $464 or go to $424.
The company guided lower in March and the stock has fallen. As such, any news that is not awful could see a rebound. So the $64,000 question is “Should I stay or should I go”.
We are going to move to the sidelines and return sometime post earnings. For now we are out. Cover shares here for a nice gain. More after the close.Comments »
1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events.
Monday sees President Obama meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other world leaders including British Prime Minister David Cameron. Also, on Monday the IMF updates its outlook on the Middle East and Central Asia.
Tuesday sees several primaries including Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island and Delaware. Tuesday sees the FOMC being a two day meeting.
Wednesday sees the FOMC announce its latest interest rate decision.
Thursday sees the BOJ announce news about potentially more stimulus.
Friday see Federal Reserve Dallas President Rob Kaplan speak at 6:30 a.m. EDT.
Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and new home sales, durable goods, consumer confidence, Q1 GDP, personal income, Chicago PMI, Michigan Sentiment.
Notable releases include ESRX HAL AAPL T FB CMCSA AMZN GILD XOM CVX.
Monday, April 25
President Obama meets with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other world leaders including British Prime Minister David Cameron in Germany.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) updates its outlook on the Middle East and Central Asia.
March New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 520,000 from 512,000.
Tuesday, April 26
There are GOP and Democratic Primaries in Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island and Delaware.
The latest short interest data from March 28th through April 12th for the NYSE and NASDAQ. During this period, the S&P 500 1.21%.
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins a two day meeting.
March Durable Goods are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 1.9% from -3.0%. Then at 10:00 a.m. EDT, April Consumer Confidence is expected to fall to 96 from 96.2.
Wednesday, April 27
The FOMC announces its latest interest rate decision and there is no press conference to follow.
Thursday, April 28
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announces its latest update update on monetary policy.
Q1 GDP (preliminary) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.9% from 1.4% in Q4.
Friday, April 29
March Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%. Then at 9:45 a.m. EDT, April Chicago PMI is due out and expected to fall to 53 from 53.6.
April Michigan Sentiment (final) is expected to rise to 90.2 from 89.7.Comments »
This was a quiet week for me on the site as I had some travel to NYC for a good portion of the week. Full schedule with dinners each day left little writing time. In fact, I am back there this week for some more meeting.
Looks like I might have found the holy grail research product that maps out the entire internet and maps all search and social media activity. Image channel check by the hour? Pretty cool stuff no doubt. I am going to see what they can produce for me on Chipotle and LinkeIn.
I will write more on this in the coming weeks as I get more up to speed on the this titanic shift in technology but for now I wanted to update on existing positions in Chipotle and LinkedIn.
Chipotle was recommended on April Fool’s Day at $465.15 and fell to $434.06 on Tuesday before climbing on an upgrade by JP Morgan. I can live with this as since mid March there have been 5 downgrades to this one upgrade. I am not playing for a $30 move to the downside. Rather I am playing for a “valeant move”.
I ventured into a Chipotle on 43rd and Fifth at peak lunch hour last week. It was busy but no line out the door. There was no one over the age of 40 in the place. They have lost that market. Earnings are due next week on April 26th after the close. The consensus is a loss of $-1.05 and revenues of $863.77 million. I expect a miss on both counts. That said watch for me to hedge the position with calls in case the stock takes off from here. Above $480 and I will use May calls to hedge the upside.
On to LinkedIn. In the last week, it has risen from $107 to its current price of $116.61. Thursday the target was lowered at Evercore from $155 to $135. Earnings are due on April 28th. Estimates are for $0.60 on earnings and revenues of $827.69 million. That said watch for me to hedge the position with calls like Chipotle in case the stock takes off from here. Above $120 and I will use May calls to hedge the upside.
Here is an update on my current recommendations, opened and closed on this website since I began to blog here in 2012.