The Only Chart That Matters: Or When This Changes Here Comes 1700

I agree with Fly’s comments that the market is OCD on Japan. Therefore, this chart will tell me when this stupidity, and it is stupidity, will end. The blue line is the relative strength of SPY against FXY (Currencyshares Japanese Yen). Then I have put in a 20 day exponential moving average of the relative strength line. The spread is the differential between the RS and the moving average. We need the green to reach an extreme.

fly

Closing ABFS For 78% Gain & Covering SWHC For 1% Gain, RGR -2% Loss and FXI 8% Gain

We are locking in gains of 78% on ABFS and will close out all shorts. SWHC for a 1% gain, RGR -2% loss and FXI for 8% gain. We have now recommended nine names with 8 winners. We remain long TASR up 22% so far.  Cumulative gains are over 180% or 20% per idea.

ibankcoinrecs

If you are missing our daily comments, then simply go to www.superstockinvestor.com to sign up for our Morning Briefing that is free. This morning we looked at SPY retracements, updated the Facebook (FB) scorecard and pointed out articles of interest.

Daily P/Laybook Back For The Next Two Day

The Daily P/Laybook is back for the next two days as a comp. If you want to see it daily, it is free by signing up for our Morning Briefing that includes  the stock scorecard, articles that matter and morning matters (www.superstockinvestor.com).

In After Hours Trading

HPQ(+.06) LTD (+.02) ORIG (+.23) PSUN (+.16) PETM (+.02) SPTN (+.11) WDAY (+.03) among others.

IPOs today of note Constellium Holdings, Global Brass & Copper Holdings, Ply Gem Holdings and Channel Advisor. Secondaries of note BXMT BLMN LG OAK RDMP WAIR. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -15.25, Dow Jones -118, NDX -28 with fair value lower lessening the ugliness) Asia and Europe lower. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield -5. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close CRM GPS ROST MRVL WSM NDSN P MENT ARO BLOX ZUMZ SCVL CRMT. Due tomorrow morning before the open FL ANF HIBB DXLG TNP.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

ALKS (+.24) BONT (+.32) CATO (+.02) PLCE (+.22) DLTR (+.02) HRL (-.03) PERY (+.03) QSII (-.07) SIG (+.02) among others.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 656 stocks rise and 2374 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 623 risee and 1811 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is still positive. The Madison Market Timing Indicator moved to cash on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com

Economics

April New Home Sales are released at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 426,000 from 417,000. Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico

President Obama to give a speech on the use of drones today.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings HUM LOGI KKR RGA SSYS. Barclays Technology, Telecom and Media Conference and the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Retail Transport and Leisure Conference.

Conference of Note

CTIA Wireless 2013.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs ATW PTEN O
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup    
Merrill Lynch HOT  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Lazard    
Oppenheimer    
Jefferies    
HSBC    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey PAY  
Raymond James    
Credit Agricole    
Cowen    
Keefe Bruyette    
Friedman Billings    
Robert W. Baird    
Needham LCI  

 

Daily P/Laybook Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

IPOs due this week ADMA Biologics, BioAmber, Ellington Residential Mortgage, ING US, Insys Therapeutics and QIWI PLC. Secondary offerings none of note GWPH LOV TSRE. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +5.50, Dow Jones +49, NDX +12 with fair value a bit higher) Asia moistly closed and Europe higher. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude higher and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0085. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close among others ESRX SU GGP NEM HTZ SBAC PCL MAS ACGL JEC QGEN HLF CYH PPS RVBD BWLD TXRH among others. Due tomorrow morning of note PFE BP UBS EPD NEE BEN TRI ECL HCP VLO CMI SIRI AET PEG ZTS MHP among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

AWI (-.17) CNA (+.15) ETN (+.05) L (-.28) ROP (+.05) SOHU (+.07)

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1210 stocks rise and 1767 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 933 risee and 1503 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 moves back above its 50 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now positive. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Releases of note this week include weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims along with personal income, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, construction spending, ISM manufacturing, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and factory orders.

 

March Personal Income is released at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to be 0.4% against 1.1% in February

Politico

President Obama expected to announce several cabinet picks.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings none of note. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Africa Conference 2013.

Conference of Note

10th Annual Stem Cell Summit.

M & A News

Bayer AG to buy CPTS for $31 a share and the stocks closed at $25.90.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan   LEAP
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup    
Merrill Lynch PBR  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
ING Group MT  
Societe Generale LRLCY UNCFF
Jefferies    
HSBC   AEM
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey    
Raymond James    
Credit Agricole    
Cowen OIS  

Daily P/Laybook Futures Up Slightly

In After Hours Trading

AMGN (+.12) AAPL (+.09) BRCM (+.09) BCR (+.02) DV (+.07)AWAY (+.02) JNPR (-.01) NSC (+.05)PNRA (-.01)vmw (+.04) YUM (+.10)

 IPOs due this week ADMA Biologics and DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund. Secondary offerings none of note this morning MICT LOV CG. Filings after the close CG LOV SPNC GOOD. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +2, Dow Jones +28, NDX +1 with fair values higher which will cut into the open) Asia higher and Europe higher. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0042. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close among others QCOM SYK AFL CCI COG WDC CTXS ORLY EQIX XLNX SRCL TSCO VAR. Due tomorrow morning of note UPS MMM MO COP BMY OXY AZN CL CELG BIIB DOW D POT TWC among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

BA (+.26) GLW (+.06) F (+.04) LO (+.02) PG (+.03) ROK (+.04) TUP (+.05) WHR (+.01)

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2421 stocks rise and 606 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1896 risee and 561 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 remains below its 50 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but above -200. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

March Durable Goods are released at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to drop to -2.0% from 5.6%.

Politico

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings none of note. Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2013 Global Foreign Exchange Workshop.

Conference of Note

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup BAK  
Merrill Lynch    
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Raymond James    
Societe Generale HAL ASBFY
Jefferies CNSL LMOS  
KeyBanc Capital    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey    
Raymond James    
Credit Agricole    
Dahlman Rose    
Keefe Bruyette    
Friedman Billings    
Robert W. Baird    
Needham    
Sun Trust RH NTDR CRZO  

Daily P/Laybook Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

IPOs due ADMA Biologics and DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund. Secondary offerings none of note MICT. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +6.25, Dow Jones +45, NDX +14 with fair values higher which will cut into the open) Asia higher ex Shanghai and Europe higher. Copper lower and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0179. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close CNI TXN ACE AMP NFLX ILMN STM NXPI ZION PKG IEX ALSN HMA RCII SWFT USTR VECO SANM XOOM PLXT among others. Due tomorrow morning of note DD TRV LMT ITW RAI JCI DFS ARMH APD PCAR IR COH ECA DAL RF XRX FRX WAT PII MOLX GCI.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

BOH (-.07) BEAV (+.07) CAT (-.07) HAL (+.10) PHG (-.09).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2178 stocks rise and 812 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1624 risee and 700 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 remains below its 50 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but above -200. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Releases of note this week include weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims along with existing home sales, new home sales, durable goods and Q1 GDP as well as Michigan Sentiment.

 

March Existing Home Sales are released at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to be revised upward to 5.01 million from 4.98 million.

TONIGHT AFTER THE CLOSE CHINA MONTLY PMI DATA. THIS COULD BE A MARKET MOVER FRO TUESDAY.

Politico

Federal Reserve New York President Dudley speaks before the open.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings CYS. International Society For Cell Therapy Conference.

Conference of Note

M & A News

ABB to buy PWER for $6.35 a share which is tiny premium.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup    
Merrill Lynch CNDO  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Raymond James    
Societe Generale   ERIC

Daily P/Laybook Futures Higher

We are a bit crazed the next two days.  If you want to access today or tomorrow, then go to www.superstockinvestor.com and sign up for our free Morning Briefing which includes the Daily P/Laybook within Market Matters. We will be back here next Monday.

How To Avoid Getting Clipped In Stocks Like GTAT

At Erlanger Research, we use a really simple indicator to determine the bias. Bias tells us whether we want to be long or short. If the bias is positive, then we do not short. If the bias is negative, then we do not buy.

It is really that simple. Unfortunately, humans have a widget in the back of their head telling to them to try and catch a bottom or top. There is no need to do that if you have the power of the Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel we use to set the bias. The DMA Channel can be found in our software as well as on Bloomberg and NinjaTrader.

In the case of GTAT, the stock has not been able to move above its monthly DMA Channel. We are a buyer when we close the month above the DMA Channel and a seller when we close the month below the DMA Channel.

3

We have a buy signal that made 67.56% and the current sell has made 66.70% on the short side for a combined return of 134.26% . The software for this chart can be found at www.erlangerchartroom.com and www.goodmorningwallst.com. We offer both individual and institutional version as well as real time via eSignal and Bloomberg.

There is one big caveat to the DMA Monthly Channel. It does not do a good job on stocks with low beta. Betas above 1 it works fine. Ultimately, bias needs to be used in conjunction with setup and trigger indicators. Our setup indicators include short interest, options and seasonal trends. Triggers are technical indicators that help on the timing of the trade. The use of bias, setups and triggers is a must for any trader.

 

Daily P/Laybook Futures Lower

In After Hours Trading

BMI (-.30) CSX (+.05) INTC (IN LINE) IBKR (-.09) LLTC (+.02) MRTN (+.05) URI (-.30) YHOO (+.13). 

Several IPOs are due Blackhawk Network, Fairway Group, Hannon Armstrong Sustainable, Intelsat Global Holdings, SeaWorld Entertainment and Taminco Chemical.Secondary offerings none of note. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -12, Dow Jones -100, NDX -23.00 with fair value higher, which will hurt the opening even more) Asia lower ex Japan and Europe lower. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield -0.0172. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close EBAY AXP KMP SNDK SLM EPB NE CCK ALB EWBC STLD CVA LHO CYS CNS SCSS AF. Earnings due tomorrow morning among others PM VZ PEP TSM UNP UNH MS DHR BAX FCX BBT PG SHW OMC FITB NUE NOK APH BX KEY.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

ASML (+.03) BAC (-.02) BK (-.02) DOV (+.01) HBAN (+.01) MAT (+.03) PNC (+.21) DGX (-.15) TXT (-.05) WNS (+.01).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2494 stocks rise and 542 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1923 risee and 555 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 broke back below its 50 day moving average on Monday. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but above -200. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee releases its latest Beige Book survey. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its Global Financial Stability Report.

 

Weekly Crude Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico

Federal Reserve St. Louis President Bullard speak about unemployment in New York City. Also Federal Reserve Governor Stein and Federal Reserve Boston President Rosengren speak today.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings none of note. CIBC Energy Conference.

Conference of Note

World Vaccine Congress & Expo.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup OC  
Merrill Lynch YHOO  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse   POM

How Much Of A Pullback Ahead?

How much of a pullback can we expect? We look to our retracement tool to give us a sense of how much of a pullback we can expect.

[Image 1]

A retracemen is drawn from a low to a high. In the chart above, we have drawn the line from both the December low and November low. At a minimum, we now can expect a 38% pullback to 1521.24 or 1501.70.

A more realistic number is a 50% pullback, which is either 1497.73 or 1471.40.

The S&P 500 peaked at 1593.37 so a 5% pullback would take us to 1513.68 which is between the two 38% pullbacks.

A 10% pullback would take us to 1434.03. This would take us slightly beyond the 61.8% retracement levels that are 1474.22 and 1441.23.

The Only Chart That Matters: Or When This Changes Here Comes 1700

I agree with Fly’s comments that the market is OCD on Japan. Therefore, this chart will tell me when this stupidity, and it is stupidity, will end. The blue line is the relative strength of SPY against FXY (Currencyshares Japanese Yen). Then I have put in a 20 day exponential moving average of the relative strength line. The spread is the differential between the RS and the moving average. We need the green to reach an extreme.

fly

Closing ABFS For 78% Gain & Covering SWHC For 1% Gain, RGR -2% Loss and FXI 8% Gain

We are locking in gains of 78% on ABFS and will close out all shorts. SWHC for a 1% gain, RGR -2% loss and FXI for 8% gain. We have now recommended nine names with 8 winners. We remain long TASR up 22% so far.  Cumulative gains are over 180% or 20% per idea.

ibankcoinrecs

If you are missing our daily comments, then simply go to www.superstockinvestor.com to sign up for our Morning Briefing that is free. This morning we looked at SPY retracements, updated the Facebook (FB) scorecard and pointed out articles of interest.

Daily P/Laybook Back For The Next Two Day

The Daily P/Laybook is back for the next two days as a comp. If you want to see it daily, it is free by signing up for our Morning Briefing that includes  the stock scorecard, articles that matter and morning matters (www.superstockinvestor.com).

In After Hours Trading

HPQ(+.06) LTD (+.02) ORIG (+.23) PSUN (+.16) PETM (+.02) SPTN (+.11) WDAY (+.03) among others.

IPOs today of note Constellium Holdings, Global Brass & Copper Holdings, Ply Gem Holdings and Channel Advisor. Secondaries of note BXMT BLMN LG OAK RDMP WAIR. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -15.25, Dow Jones -118, NDX -28 with fair value lower lessening the ugliness) Asia and Europe lower. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield -5. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close CRM GPS ROST MRVL WSM NDSN P MENT ARO BLOX ZUMZ SCVL CRMT. Due tomorrow morning before the open FL ANF HIBB DXLG TNP.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

ALKS (+.24) BONT (+.32) CATO (+.02) PLCE (+.22) DLTR (+.02) HRL (-.03) PERY (+.03) QSII (-.07) SIG (+.02) among others.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 656 stocks rise and 2374 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 623 risee and 1811 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is still positive. The Madison Market Timing Indicator moved to cash on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com

Economics

April New Home Sales are released at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 426,000 from 417,000. Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico

President Obama to give a speech on the use of drones today.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings HUM LOGI KKR RGA SSYS. Barclays Technology, Telecom and Media Conference and the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Retail Transport and Leisure Conference.

Conference of Note

CTIA Wireless 2013.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs ATW PTEN O
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup    
Merrill Lynch HOT  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Lazard    
Oppenheimer    
Jefferies    
HSBC    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey PAY  
Raymond James    
Credit Agricole    
Cowen    
Keefe Bruyette    
Friedman Billings    
Robert W. Baird    
Needham LCI  

 

Daily P/Laybook Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

IPOs due this week ADMA Biologics, BioAmber, Ellington Residential Mortgage, ING US, Insys Therapeutics and QIWI PLC. Secondary offerings none of note GWPH LOV TSRE. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +5.50, Dow Jones +49, NDX +12 with fair value a bit higher) Asia moistly closed and Europe higher. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude higher and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0085. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close among others ESRX SU GGP NEM HTZ SBAC PCL MAS ACGL JEC QGEN HLF CYH PPS RVBD BWLD TXRH among others. Due tomorrow morning of note PFE BP UBS EPD NEE BEN TRI ECL HCP VLO CMI SIRI AET PEG ZTS MHP among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

AWI (-.17) CNA (+.15) ETN (+.05) L (-.28) ROP (+.05) SOHU (+.07)

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1210 stocks rise and 1767 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 933 risee and 1503 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 moves back above its 50 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now positive. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Releases of note this week include weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims along with personal income, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, construction spending, ISM manufacturing, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and factory orders.

 

March Personal Income is released at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to be 0.4% against 1.1% in February

Politico

President Obama expected to announce several cabinet picks.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings none of note. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Africa Conference 2013.

Conference of Note

10th Annual Stem Cell Summit.

M & A News

Bayer AG to buy CPTS for $31 a share and the stocks closed at $25.90.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan   LEAP
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup    
Merrill Lynch PBR  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
ING Group MT  
Societe Generale LRLCY UNCFF
Jefferies    
HSBC   AEM
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey    
Raymond James    
Credit Agricole    
Cowen OIS  

Daily P/Laybook Futures Up Slightly

In After Hours Trading

AMGN (+.12) AAPL (+.09) BRCM (+.09) BCR (+.02) DV (+.07)AWAY (+.02) JNPR (-.01) NSC (+.05)PNRA (-.01)vmw (+.04) YUM (+.10)

 IPOs due this week ADMA Biologics and DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund. Secondary offerings none of note this morning MICT LOV CG. Filings after the close CG LOV SPNC GOOD. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +2, Dow Jones +28, NDX +1 with fair values higher which will cut into the open) Asia higher and Europe higher. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0042. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close among others QCOM SYK AFL CCI COG WDC CTXS ORLY EQIX XLNX SRCL TSCO VAR. Due tomorrow morning of note UPS MMM MO COP BMY OXY AZN CL CELG BIIB DOW D POT TWC among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

BA (+.26) GLW (+.06) F (+.04) LO (+.02) PG (+.03) ROK (+.04) TUP (+.05) WHR (+.01)

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2421 stocks rise and 606 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1896 risee and 561 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 remains below its 50 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but above -200. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

March Durable Goods are released at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to drop to -2.0% from 5.6%.

Politico

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings none of note. Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2013 Global Foreign Exchange Workshop.

Conference of Note

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup BAK  
Merrill Lynch    
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Raymond James    
Societe Generale HAL ASBFY
Jefferies CNSL LMOS  
KeyBanc Capital    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey    
Raymond James    
Credit Agricole    
Dahlman Rose    
Keefe Bruyette    
Friedman Billings    
Robert W. Baird    
Needham    
Sun Trust RH NTDR CRZO  

Daily P/Laybook Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

IPOs due ADMA Biologics and DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund. Secondary offerings none of note MICT. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +6.25, Dow Jones +45, NDX +14 with fair values higher which will cut into the open) Asia higher ex Shanghai and Europe higher. Copper lower and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0179. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close CNI TXN ACE AMP NFLX ILMN STM NXPI ZION PKG IEX ALSN HMA RCII SWFT USTR VECO SANM XOOM PLXT among others. Due tomorrow morning of note DD TRV LMT ITW RAI JCI DFS ARMH APD PCAR IR COH ECA DAL RF XRX FRX WAT PII MOLX GCI.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

BOH (-.07) BEAV (+.07) CAT (-.07) HAL (+.10) PHG (-.09).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2178 stocks rise and 812 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1624 risee and 700 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 remains below its 50 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but above -200. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Releases of note this week include weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims along with existing home sales, new home sales, durable goods and Q1 GDP as well as Michigan Sentiment.

 

March Existing Home Sales are released at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to be revised upward to 5.01 million from 4.98 million.

TONIGHT AFTER THE CLOSE CHINA MONTLY PMI DATA. THIS COULD BE A MARKET MOVER FRO TUESDAY.

Politico

Federal Reserve New York President Dudley speaks before the open.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings CYS. International Society For Cell Therapy Conference.

Conference of Note

M & A News

ABB to buy PWER for $6.35 a share which is tiny premium.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup    
Merrill Lynch CNDO  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Raymond James    
Societe Generale   ERIC

Daily P/Laybook Futures Higher

We are a bit crazed the next two days.  If you want to access today or tomorrow, then go to www.superstockinvestor.com and sign up for our free Morning Briefing which includes the Daily P/Laybook within Market Matters. We will be back here next Monday.

How To Avoid Getting Clipped In Stocks Like GTAT

At Erlanger Research, we use a really simple indicator to determine the bias. Bias tells us whether we want to be long or short. If the bias is positive, then we do not short. If the bias is negative, then we do not buy.

It is really that simple. Unfortunately, humans have a widget in the back of their head telling to them to try and catch a bottom or top. There is no need to do that if you have the power of the Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel we use to set the bias. The DMA Channel can be found in our software as well as on Bloomberg and NinjaTrader.

In the case of GTAT, the stock has not been able to move above its monthly DMA Channel. We are a buyer when we close the month above the DMA Channel and a seller when we close the month below the DMA Channel.

3

We have a buy signal that made 67.56% and the current sell has made 66.70% on the short side for a combined return of 134.26% . The software for this chart can be found at www.erlangerchartroom.com and www.goodmorningwallst.com. We offer both individual and institutional version as well as real time via eSignal and Bloomberg.

There is one big caveat to the DMA Monthly Channel. It does not do a good job on stocks with low beta. Betas above 1 it works fine. Ultimately, bias needs to be used in conjunction with setup and trigger indicators. Our setup indicators include short interest, options and seasonal trends. Triggers are technical indicators that help on the timing of the trade. The use of bias, setups and triggers is a must for any trader.

 

Daily P/Laybook Futures Lower

In After Hours Trading

BMI (-.30) CSX (+.05) INTC (IN LINE) IBKR (-.09) LLTC (+.02) MRTN (+.05) URI (-.30) YHOO (+.13). 

Several IPOs are due Blackhawk Network, Fairway Group, Hannon Armstrong Sustainable, Intelsat Global Holdings, SeaWorld Entertainment and Taminco Chemical.Secondary offerings none of note. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -12, Dow Jones -100, NDX -23.00 with fair value higher, which will hurt the opening even more) Asia lower ex Japan and Europe lower. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield -0.0172. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close EBAY AXP KMP SNDK SLM EPB NE CCK ALB EWBC STLD CVA LHO CYS CNS SCSS AF. Earnings due tomorrow morning among others PM VZ PEP TSM UNP UNH MS DHR BAX FCX BBT PG SHW OMC FITB NUE NOK APH BX KEY.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

ASML (+.03) BAC (-.02) BK (-.02) DOV (+.01) HBAN (+.01) MAT (+.03) PNC (+.21) DGX (-.15) TXT (-.05) WNS (+.01).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2494 stocks rise and 542 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1923 risee and 555 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 broke back below its 50 day moving average on Monday. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but above -200. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee releases its latest Beige Book survey. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its Global Financial Stability Report.

 

Weekly Crude Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico

Federal Reserve St. Louis President Bullard speak about unemployment in New York City. Also Federal Reserve Governor Stein and Federal Reserve Boston President Rosengren speak today.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings none of note. CIBC Energy Conference.

Conference of Note

World Vaccine Congress & Expo.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup OC  
Merrill Lynch YHOO  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse   POM

How Much Of A Pullback Ahead?

How much of a pullback can we expect? We look to our retracement tool to give us a sense of how much of a pullback we can expect.

[Image 1]

A retracemen is drawn from a low to a high. In the chart above, we have drawn the line from both the December low and November low. At a minimum, we now can expect a 38% pullback to 1521.24 or 1501.70.

A more realistic number is a 50% pullback, which is either 1497.73 or 1471.40.

The S&P 500 peaked at 1593.37 so a 5% pullback would take us to 1513.68 which is between the two 38% pullbacks.

A 10% pullback would take us to 1434.03. This would take us slightly beyond the 61.8% retracement levels that are 1474.22 and 1441.23.

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