Daily P/Laybook

January 22, 2013

In After Hours Trading

President Obama now enters his second term post inauguaration festivities.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +0.50, DJI +2, NDX +8 with fair value higher) Asia mixed and Europe lower. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude lower & Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.026. Prices as of 7:40 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Due after the close GOOG IBM TXN CSX NSC ISRG CA ALB RKT and due tomorrow morning NVS MCD SAP UTX ABT PX GD BHI WLP APO COH MSI TELTXT MOLX.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

CRBC (-.06), DD (+.02), FMER (+.02), IIVI (-.02), PKG (-.01), RF (+.01), SNV (+.90), AMTD (+.02), TRV (+.60), VZ (-.13).

Data Points

Friday saw 1920 stocks rise and 1049 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1300 rise and 1130 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

Economics

December Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to improve to 5,100,000 from 5,040,000. World Economic Forum from Davos starts tomorrow.

Politico

Israel holds national elections. Houze GOP to set up vote tomorrow on debt ceiling extension. ECB Head Mario Draghi speaks at 1:00 p.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

None of note that are importance. Several minor level conferences.

Conference of Note

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

January 18, 2013

In After Hours Trading

Earnings of note after the close COF (-.16), INTC (+.03), MATW (+.04), WTFC (+.01), WIT (+.32), XLNX (+.01). Secondaries due today ALNY ATRC CIE ITMN ONXX STAG VR. Secondaries announced AVEO NTI. IPOs none on deck. IPO Financial Network provided secondary and IPO overview.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -0.25, DJI -2, NDX -8 with fair value flat) Asia higher and Europe mixed. Copper higher and gold lower with WTI Crude & Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.0144. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Of note up next week DAL FCX GOOG AMD CA ABT GD AMGN AAPL MMM NOK SBUX HAL HON PG. Suffice it to say next week is a HUGE earnings week.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

GE(+.01), JCI (+.01), MS (+.18), PH (+.08), COL (+.04), STT (+.10), STI (+.04).

Data Points

Friday saw 2277 stocks rise and 715 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1636 rise and 789 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

Economics

January Michigan Sentiment is due out at 9:55 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 75 from 72.9.

Politico

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings DPZ CERN MCHX.

Conference of Note

The North American Auto Show continues in Detroit.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Weekly Crash Indicator

January 17, 2013

In After Hours Trading

Earnings of note after the close CLC (+.02), CVBF (-.01), EBAY (+.01), EPB (+.07), FUL (+.08), KMP (-.06), PLXS (-.01), SLM (+.01). Secondaries due today ALNY ATRC CIE ITMN ONXX STAG VR. Secondaries announced AVEO NTI. IPOs none on deck. IPO Financial Network provided secondary and IPO overview.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +2.75, DJI +13, NDX +7.50 with fair value higher) Asia and Europe mixed. Copper higher and gold lower with WTI Crude & Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.0283. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

INTC AXP COF ED XLNX PBCT ASBC due after the close. Due tomorrow morning GE SLB STT JCI PGR PH COL MMR FHN WBS among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

ASML (+.30), BAC (+.01), BLK (+.26), FITB (+.01), HBAN (+.02), IGTE (+.07), IIN (+.09), NTCT (+.01), PNC (-.06), UNH (+.01), VCBI (+.01).

Data Points

Friday saw 1354 stocks rise and 1608 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 983 rise and 1470 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

Economics

December Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to improve to 890,000 from 861,000.

Politico

Fed speaker Lockhart (12:05 p.m. EST). President Obama pens an op-ed in The Connecticut Post.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Needham Growth Conference and Deutsche Bank China Conference. Analyst meetings SLH PMTI GPN CERN PATH ROC.

Conference of Note

The North American Auto Show continues in Detroit.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

January 16, 2013

In After Hours Trading

Earnings of note after the close ADTN (+.02), IBKR (-.03), LLTC (-.02), RNST (+.01). Secondaries due today ITMN ALNY. Secondaries announced ATRC STAG VR FIVE CIE ONXX. IPOs none on deck. IPO Financial Network provided secondary and IPO overview.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -4.50, DJI -69, NDX -0.20 with fair value higher) Asia and Europe lower. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude Futures lower & Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.0299. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

EBAY KMP EPB SLM CLC FUL WTFC OZRK CVBF SANM PLXS due after the close. Due tomorrow morning C BAC TSM UNH MS BLK FCX PNC ASML BBT FITB FAST APH HBAN FCS NTCT HOMB IGTE HLSS among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

CMA (+.02), FRC (+.11), GS (1.96), JPM (+.20), NTRS (-.04), USN (+.01), WEN (+.04).

Data Points

Friday saw 1733 stocks rise and 1257 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1312 rise and 1139 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

Economics

At 8:30 a.m. EST, December CPI is due out and expected to rise to 0% from -0.3%. Then at 9:15 a.m. EST December Industrial Production is due out and expected to drop to 0.3% from 1.1%.

Politico

Federal Reserve Beige Book is released at 2:00 p.m. EST. Iran holds talks with the U.N. nuclear watchdog commission. Fed speakers Kocherlakota (10:00 a.m. EST) and after the close Fisher and Kocherlakota, again.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

UBS Greater China Conference, Needham Growth Conference, Deutsche Bank Global Auto Conference and Deutsche Bank China Conference. Analyst meetings SLH SE.

Conference of Note

The North American Auto Show begins in Detroit. National Retail Federation Annual Convention.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

If the answer is no and you are trading intraday, then you are going to get your butt kicked by the professionals. They ALL know. The answer for today on SPY is that support is $146.58 and we are failing to get above it for a third time today. What does that mean?

It is likely the lows are not in yet for the day. The same technique which we call the Erlanger Value Lines can be used on any stock, index or ETF.

January 15, 2013

In After Hours Trading

No earnings of note after the close. LULU lowered guidance and stock lower. GCOM to explore possible sale. Secondaries announced by GGC ITMN ADC SUNS GBDC CHUY.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -5.25, DJI -32, NDX -7.75 with fair value lower) Asia and Europe higher. Copper lower and gold higher with WTI Crude & Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.0211. Prices as of 7:35 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

LLTC FULT ADTN IBJR PNFP RNST due after the close. Due tomorrow morning JPM GS USB SCHW MTB NTRS CMA FRC WEN among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

LEN (+.11).

Data Points

Friday saw 1486 stocks rise and 1486 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1152 rise and 1287 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

Economics

December PPI and Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to improve to -0.1% from -0.8% and drop to 0.2% from 0.3%.

Politico

Federal Reserve Presidents speak at various times today Rosengren (8:00 a.m. EST), Kocherlakota (8:50 a.m. EST) and Plosser (12:30 p.m. EST).

Conference & Analyst Meetings

TD Securities London Energy Conference, UBS Greater China Conference, Needham Growth Conference, Deutsche Bank Global Auto Conference and Deutsche Bank China Conference. Analyst meetings HPQ and the meeting of the day FB (1:00 p.m. EST).

Conference of Note

The North American Auto Show begins in Detroit. National Retail Federation Annual Convention.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Often things happen during the day that are not expected. Out of thin air, Obama decided to hold a press conference today to discuss the debt ceiling. We are apolitical in our writing but state the obvious.

He will be using the bully pulpit to beat on Congress. Normally, we would say this is a sell on the market BUT sometimes it does not work out like you think conventional wisdom sees it. Rather we would adopt a wait and see attitude and then go short or long if intraday oriented.

January 14, 2013

In After Hours Trading

ORCL submits a secruity patch to Java. Apple slows component orders for iPhone 5. JPM may blame CEO Dimon on the “Whale” trading error.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -2, DJI -20, NDX -16.80 with fair value lower) Asia and Europe higher. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude & Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.0317. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

None of note due after the close. Due tomorrow morning CBSH FRX LEN.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

LEDS (-.02).

Data Points

Friday saw 1562 stocks rise and 1434 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1226 rise and 1222 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

Economics

Releases of note this week include weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims along with monthly numbers for PPI, CPI , retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and Michigan Sentiment. None of note today.

Politico

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks at 4:00 p.m. EST about monetary policy. Federal Reserve San Francisco President Williams (11:55 a.m. EST) and Atlanta President Lockhart (12:40 p.m. EST) speak as well.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

TD Securities London Energy Conference, UBS Greater China Conference, Raymond James Internet Outlook and Deutsche Bank China Conference. Analyst meetings RTEC ACU.

Conference of Note

The North American Auto Show begins in Detroit. National Retail Federation Annual Convention.

M & A News

Swatch buys HWD for $1 billion, $750 million in cash and $250 million of debt assumption.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

January 11, 2013

In After Hours Trading

SNX (+.12), XRTX (+.08). BBY announced same stores sales and they were weak,down 1% year over year.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P UNCH, DJI -7, NDX +0.50 with fair value a bit lower) Asia mixed and Europe higher. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude & Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.0087. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Due of note next week PPG LEN ADTN LLTC BK GS EBAY FUL MS INTC GE STT. Next week is mostly about FINANCIALS.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

WFC

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1931 stocks rise and 1043 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1438 rise and 1035 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

Economics

Latest USDA Crop Report due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Politico

Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Charles Plosser speaks at 9:30 a.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference and Merrill Lynch China Gaming & Lodging. PGH holds its analyst meeting.

Conference of Note

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades