iBankCoin
Joined Dec 4, 2012
296 Blog Posts

Why SPLV/SPHB Matters?

For those that are not aware we write a daily column called Morning Matters. It is published each day in Super Stock Investor (www.superstockinvestor.com) along with Market Matters, Articles That Matter and the Stock Scorecard. Best of all it is free and all you have to do is sign up and it is delivered each day at 8:00 a.m. EDT each day.  Why do we mention it? Because this morning we wrote an important article we wanted to share.  Here You Go:

Our tracking of High Beta to Low Volatility and Large Cap to Small Cap shows both High Beta and Small Cap lagging. If this trend continues, then it is almost a guarantee of a correction.

We track the Powershares S&P High Beta (SPHB) versus Powershares S&P Low Volatility (SPLV). SPHB is down on an absolute and relative basis since mid March.

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Meanwhile, the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is lagging the SPDRS Trust Unit (SPY) that tracks the S&P 500.

[Image 2]

Even though the headlines were the market was higher, the IWM was lower by -0.62% after dropping -1.34% on Monday. Follow this trend closely.

A smart trader will always want to track high beta versus low volatility. It tells him when to put the pedal to the metal.

 

 

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Locking In Gains On NSC

We recommended NSC as a buy on 1/4/13 at $65.25.  Transportation names have peaked for the time being. We will lock in our gain here at $75.39.  Continue to raise cash and be a patient buyer.

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Daily P/Laybook Futures Up Slightly But Fading

In After Hours Trading

Earnings reported after the close GII (+.01) GPN (-.02) CALL (+.40) OXM (-.05) TISI (-.02). 

Secondaries announced after the close ARCC GIFI SEP. Secondaries due this morning IRET NAT PRE. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +1, Dow Jones +2, NDX +1.50 with fair value lower, which will improve the opening fractionally) Asia lower ex Japan and Europe lower. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, flat vs. Pound and flat vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0004. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Reports due after the close DDC RH SHLM MG SVM MIND. Due tomorrow morning RPM ISCA SCHN MHR GBX SMRT KID.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

CAG (-.01) CONN (-.01) JOSB (+.03) OMN (-.07).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1436 stocks rise and 1538 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1001 rise and 1340 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

ADP March Employment Report is released at 8:15 a.m. EDT. The Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) hold monetary policy meetings. A rate decision from the BOJ will be due overnight.

Politico

The House and Senate are on break this week.

 

Federal Reserve President John Williams and Federal Reserve St. Louis Bullard speak on monetary policy and the state of the economy.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings CRM PLAB CJES. New York International Auto Shows runs through Sunday. Geosynthetics Conference is held in Long Beach, California. Cloud Connect. Morgan Stanley Retail & Restaurant Conference & Field Trip.

Conference of Note

New York International Auto Shows runs through Sunday.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs XEL  
Morgan Stanley   ADT
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup   CRL
Merrill Lynch AMG LM CNS EV

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Daily P/Laybook Futures Slightly Higher

In After Hours Trading

IPOS to be priced this week include Cancer Genetics and Independent Bank Group. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +0.75, Dow Jones +14, NDX +4.50 with fair value a bit higher, futures were lower earlier in the morning so an improvement to the pre-market session) Asia lower and Europe higher. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0259. Prices as of 7:40 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Reports due after the close VECO SCVL MBND. Due tomorrow morning MKC HNR.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

CALM (+.01) OXF (-.16).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1904 stocks rise and 1090 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1373 rise and 1079 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to positive. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

February Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 1.0% from -2.1%. At the same time, March ISM Manufacturing is due out and expected to drop to 54% from 54.2%.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its latest rate decision at 10:30 p.m. EDT.

Politico

The House and Senate are on break this week.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings none of note. Announcement due from . New York International Auto Shows runs through Sunday. Geosynthetics Conference is held in Long Beach, California.

Conference of Note

New York International Auto Shows runs through Sunday.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs TAP CCE
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup APAM  
Merrill Lynch MAC  

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Our Market Crash Indicators Support Fly’s Move To Lots Of Cash

Weekly Market Crash Indicators

Market Crash Indicators #102  March 27, 2013
Our process has returned 36.88% since inception while the S&P 500 has gained 18.64%. So far this year we are up 5.60%. This is published each Friday or Thursday if a shortened week on http://www.buttonwoodclub.com.Four weeks ago we added a new component to our process. If we are 100% invested then we own the Ultra S&P 500 Proshares (SSO) which returns 2X the S&P 500, 75% we own the S&P SDRS Unit Trust (SPY), 50% invested S&P Powershares Low Volatility(SPLV), Cash is Cash and 100% short we own the S&P Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares (SDS) which returns 2X the downside of the S&P 500. 

SPLV returned 1.62% last week. This week we remain 50% invested, so are holding SPLV for a third week out of four. The model has returned 3.39% against the S&P 500 return of 3.18%.

Market crash/correction indicators remain DEFCON 3 50% invested Our DEFCON ratings are from 1 to 5 with five being the most severe.

The Madison Letter remains in cash this morning but our scores moved into the black this week on the rally. Scores on the major indexes are moving above 20 so we will remain with cash for the time being and hope for a better entry point. Overall Madison signals have returned 45.73%  while the S&P 500 has returned  10.00% since 4/2/2007 through yesterday’s close for outperformance of  35.73% since 4/2/07.

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Next the Erlanger Big Barf Indicator moves to 0.93 from 3.00 on a daily basis. We note the daily had moved below 0 which was a confirmed sell signal. We are now back to a buy. The Weekly EBB remains above zero as does the Monthly Indicator.

The EBB is only available in Erlanger Chart Room but we report on it once a week in this column. If you want to see it daily or intraday, which is killer, then we suggest signing up for Erlanger Chart Room where you will never look at a chart the same.

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Next,the proprietary advance/decline measure for NYSE/NASDAQ stocks remains a buy on the market but barely. Since inception this signal is up 113.06% while the S&P 500 is up 124.44% since 3/2/2009 for underperformance of  -11.38% on an  absolute basis. This indicator is either buy or sell. Sell signals have generated positive returns in addition to our buy signals. This morning we show cumulative returns.

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Simon Economics Greed & Fear Index (GFI) moves from 96 to 92 this past week, as we now are in “el feugo” mode.

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Last, our Weekly Chart on the 50 Day moving average slope of the S&P 500 remains positive for the eleventh week in a row.

[Image 5]

We added a sixth indicator in the summer of 2012 that is a measure of risk and it is extremely proprietary and will remain as a black box indicator. It remains underweight from overweight beta.

What is interesting about these various market crash/correction indicators is they are independent of each other and use different methods but all arrived at similar conclusions at or around the September lows. These indicators also will allow some give and not provide a ton of false signals. The bottomline is these indicators will capture drops of 5% or more on a very consistent basis.

We have assigned a percentage of the portfolio that is invested based on our DEFCON indicators. We have been publishing this in Superstock investor and will add to here. A rating of DEFCON 1 equals 100% invested. DEFCON 2 equals 75% invested. DEFCON 3 equals 50% invested. DEFCON 4 equals cash. DECON 5 equals 100% short.

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Daily P/Laybook Futures Flatish

In After Hours Trading

EXA (-.04) FIVE (+.01) PAYX (+.01) PVH (+.10) RHT (+ 0.06) TXI (+.19) VRNT (+.16)

 IPOS to be priced this morning Cancer Genetics (CGIX). Secondaries announced after the close CEMI ARRY RAS FIG NGL SJW BMR. Secondaries to be priced TUMI RDA DG. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P 1.75, Dow Jones +29, NDX +7 with fair value a bit lower) Asia lower and Europe higher. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0007. Prices as of 7:35 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Reports due after the close TPH PCTI. Markets closed tomorrow. Enjoy the long weekend. It’s Miller Time.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

BBRY (+.53) CMC (-.14) SIG (+.03) WGO (+.08).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1590 stocks rise and 1393 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1156 rise and 1259 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to positive. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Q4 GDP (final) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise 0.5% from the initial 0.1%. March Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 56.9 from 56.8. Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

 

U.S. Bond Market closes early at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

Politico

The House and Senate are on break this week and next week.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings EBAY. Announcement due from TSLA. CIBC World Markets Retail & Consumer Conference and Game Developers Conference.

Conference of Note

Craft Brewers Conference & BrewExpo America

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs VFC NKE  
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup RYAAY  
Merrill Lynch   AEIS
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Raymond James    
Needham ARUN  

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Update On Recommendations & Taking Gains On AMD. So Far 8 For 9 in Recs

Here are the names we have recommended and current price with p/l and %.  Six long ideas and THREE Shorts since November. Batting Average 89%, so far (since November). I write this update for a fifth time. Locked in gain on P back on 2/1. Since last update, we added FXI as a short. Today we will close AMD. Semis are struggling and AMD is a semi name end of story. We remain with all other names. Watch for a new idea tomorrow.

SYMBOL SIGNAL DATE ENTRY CURRENT P/L % CHANGE CLOSE
AMD LONG 12/10/2012  $       2.35  $       2.52  $       0.17 7.23%  
CMG LONG 12/18/2012  $  288.01  $  320.66  $    32.65 11.34%  
TASR LONG 12/17/2012  $       7.67  $       7.96  $       0.29 3.78%  
NSC LONG 1/4/2013  $    65.25  $    76.27  $    11.02 16.89%  
ABFS LONG 1/28/2013  $    11.04  $    11.70  $       0.66 5.98%  
               
SWHC SHORT 12/17/2012  $       9.26 9.13  $       0.13 1.40%  
RGR SHORT 12/17/2012  $    46.40 51.68  $    (5.28) -11.38%  
FXI SHORT 3/4/2013  $    37.71 37.19  $       0.52 1.38%  
               
Closed              
P LONG 12/4/2013  $       8.91  $    11.74  $       2.83 31.76% 2/1/2013

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Daily P/Laybook Futures Lower

In After Hours Trading

ENVI (+.01) LNDC (+.01) MFRM (-.01) MBLX (+.01) SAI (+ 0.03)

 IPOS to be priced this morning Garrison Capital and NV5 Holdings. Secondaries announced after the close BMR TUMI ACMP COA. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -7.20, Dow Jones -65, NDX -13 with fair value a bit lower) Asia higher and Europe lower. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield -0.0502. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Reports due after the close PAYX RHT PVH FUL SCS TXI SNX VRNT RH PRGS XONE AVID SOQ. Due tomorrow morning ACN MOS DFS BBRY SIG GME CMC UTIW AH FINL MHR WGO FRED ADY SORL KID.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

UNF (-.21).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2066 stocks rise and 924 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1248 rise and 1072 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to positive. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Weekly Crude Inventories are due at 10:30 EDT.

Politico

The House and Senate are on break this week and next week. Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans will speak.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings GAS ARUN Z. Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference, Morgan Stanley Chicago Freight Transport & Airline Summit and Game Developers Conference.

Conference of Note

EclipseCon Boston 2013 which features many tech companies.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley   CLF
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup DSW  
Merrill Lynch LVMUY BBD  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Raymond James   ENPH

Comments »

Daily P/Laybook Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

IPOS to be priced this week include Garrison Capital, NVS Holdings and Pinnacle Foods. No secondaries on deck yet. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +6.75, Dow Jones +43, NDX +15.50 with fair value a bit lower adding to the positive open) Asia higher ex Shanghai and Europe higher. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.026. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Reports due after the close FMCN AUQ VECO SONC GMAN PRTS. Due tomorrow morning NEOG PLCE OXF.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

APOL (+.16) DG (+.05) JASO (-1.09).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1861 stocks rise and 1092 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1446 rise and 951 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to positive. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Releases of note this week include weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims along with durable goods, consumer confidence, new home sales, Q4 GDP, Chicago PMI, personal income and Michigan Sentiment. None due today.

Politico

Cyrpus Government reaches a deal with the ECB.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings none of note. Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference, BNP Paribas Healthcare Conference and Game Developers Conference.

Conference of Note

EclipseCon Boston 2013 which features many tech companies.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs ALL RNR PRE
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup    
Merrill Lynch CEO ARG
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Lazard    
Nomura   REMYF
Jefferies    
KeyBanc Capital    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey    
Raymond James    
Credit Agricole    
Dahlman Rose    
Keefe Bruyette    
Friedman Billings    
Robert W. Baird    
Needham GALE SFLY  
Sun Trust RH CEB  

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Daily P/Laybook

In After Hours Trading

ALIM (+.06) MU (-.09) NKE (+.06) NWY (+.02) RUE (+.02). Secondaries filed GPK FRGI LNCO ABR. Secondaries to be priced PYMX FRGI GPK. IPOS to be priced Five Oaks Investment (OAKS) HF2 Financial Mgmt (HTWO) West Corp (WSTC) Marin Software (MRIN) . Coourtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +4.50, Dow Jones +43, NDX +7.80 with fair value a tad higher) Asia mixed and Europe mixed. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0086. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

No reports due after the close. Its Miller Time. Enjoy the weekend.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

DRI (+.01) TIF (+.04)

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1052 stocks rise and 1942 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 779 rise and 1650 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but our buy has not been concluded yet as -200 has yet to be breached. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Dead day for economic reports.

Politico

Cyrpus Government continues discussions to shore up its finances and the ECB has given a deadline of Monday to reach agreement or the ECB will step away.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings HW TRI ECYT. Credit Suisse Asian Investor Conference and Nomura Global Chemical Industry Leaders Conference.

Conference of Note

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup    
Merrill Lynch    
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Lazard    
Cowen    
Jefferies    
KeyBanc Capital    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey USG  
Raymond James R  
Credit Agricole   LULU

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