To follow-up on some 12631 trades I referenced on this blog previously, I sold the final piece of my GTAT long for a loss into this bloody downgrade after taking profits on the first half of the position last week. It is a vicious gap down and longer-term may be a false breakout. Either way, the chart needs time to heal so I am out.
I also locked in the final piece of my SWC win on the long side.
Note the airline weakness again this morning, namely DAL.
This is my quarterly post that I publish at the beginning of every earnings season. It is as much a reminder to myself as it is to you.
WIth a rebalanced Dow Jones Industrial Service Average, consider this a friendly reminder to check and then double-check your current portfolio holdings to see when they are scheduled to announce. As a relatively short term swing trader, I am almost always looking to significantly reduce or outright close a position into earnings. There are simply too many variables for me to have an edge.
Even if you have illegal inside information about what a particular firm’s earnings will precisely be (and would thus face the distinct possibility of winding up in a federal pound-me-in-the-ass prison, with no conjugal visits) there is still no way to know how the market will react. Stocks can just as easily sell-off on great earnings as they can on horrific ones, and vice-versa.
Technical analysis has its clear limitations in that it can only demonstrate what is currently known and knowable by the markets. To presume that charts can dictate everything into the future is pure folly. Trading IS gambling, as we are wagering on outcomes yet to be determined. Instead of running away from that fact, a better approach is to embrace sound risk management.
In sum, leave the heroic all-in bets on an earnings play to old men trying to recreate their youth as they imagine themselves as Steve McQueen in The Cincinnati Kid. For those of you who have seen that movie, they will likely face the same fate as McQueen’s character did in the end as well.
From now through Labor Day, we are running a rare promotion for annual subscribers to the 12631 Trading Service.
You do not want to miss out on this.
We will conduct a live lottery drawing on Labor Day, where the winner will receive $1,000, while the Second place winner receives $500.
{If you are an annual member to the other iBankCoin premium services, you will be able to have multiple entries into this lottery drawing}
EDIT:If you are an annual12631 subscriber, Wewill assign you a raffle number.
To summarize:
Annualsubscribers to our premium services can be entered into a lottery drawing on Labor Day;
You receive one raffle number for each annual membership you have to our iBankCoin premium services;
If you are not currently an annual subscriber but wish to be entered into the drawing, please contact Richard Kim to upgrade from your current monthly or semi-annual membership to an annual: [email protected];
If you are not currently a 12631 member but have been debating it, now is the time to take the initiative and subscribe for a full year by clicking on this 12631 hyperlink.
Sun Jul 6, 2014 10:58am ESTComments Off on Sunday Matinee at Chess Cinemas
I present a double feature on this Fourth of July weekend matinee.
First, we have Yankee Doodle Dandy (1942), starring the great James Cagney in a biography of the talented musical composer, playwright, actor, dancer, and singer George M. Cohan.
Next, a grittier and more controversial watch is Born on the Fourth of July (1989), directed by Oliver Stone and starring Tom Cruise as a paralyzed and disgruntled Vietnam Vet.
