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Weekly Trading Setups

The Cisco Kid is All Growns Up

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Nearly twelve years after peaking in the dot-com bubble, Cisco made a fresh multi-year low last summer, apparently left for dead. Since then, though, the stock eventually found support near its 2009 lows and has stabilized. With the Nasdaq Composite making eleven-year highs recently, the presumption is that the latest Cisco cyclical bear, within its secular bear market, has ended. I am looking for the $20 level to be left in the dust here, and a move through $20.60 should put that thesis in motion with plenty of room to run above.

The Cisco Kid sure went through some nasty growing pains since 2000, but now as a mature adult it should commence a refined leg higher along with the other large cap tech stocks that are much-improved this year.

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The Multiplier Effect

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Regardless of the unintended consequences that may or may not come anytime soon from Bernanke and his band of merry printers at The Fed, the market sure does not seem to mind these days. After Tuesday’s powerful move higher across an array of sectors, supported by strong buy volume, I am looking for more “lock and roll.” That lock and roll concept would dictate that short-term extended stocks (but not necessarily topping by any stretch), such as AAPL and CMG, would see some mild profit-taking, while capital rotates down to names setting up behind them in either the same hot retail/consumer discretionary sector, or into other areas of the market such as the financials, real estate, or even the materials and energy plays.

As I noted on Monday, the XLB, ETF for the materials, is holding above its key neckline from the inverse head and shoulders bottom in late-2011. Despite dour sentiment towards the steels, coals, non precious metal miners, and ags, they stand to benefit from a rotation within equities as an asset class, rather than suffering from capital fleeing stocks as a whole. It remains to be seen if this comes to fruition, but then again rotation is the hallmark of a healthy, trending market. And by all accounts that is what we have on our hands.

Here are three charts worth watching into tomorrow’s action that are far from extended and in good positions to see inflows if the bull continues to flex its sharp horns.

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Watching the Natural Gas Hilarity Play Out

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While UNG, ETF for natural gas, makes new lows seemingly on a daily basis, the natural gas utilities have become the new darlings of Wall Street. At some point, UNG will bottom and rally hard. Whether that comes tomorrow or next month is a total coin flip in my mind. However, looking at a natural gas utility like SRE, with a 4% yield and strong buy volume over the past few days as it breaks out, the market is sending a message that these utility firms have plenty of tailwinds. Of course, this could just be a flight to safety and yield, but the low volatility environment in stocks as a whole is not particularly conducive to that argument.

Also check out EPD MDU PCG VVC for other quality charts in the natty gas utility space.

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Looking Down This Aisle for Action

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I had mentioned the real estate sector as place to keep on close watch headed into this week. In addition to the IYR ETF potentially hitting $68 to acquire its massive inverse head and shoulders measured move, many of the REITs that I have looked at over the weekend saw very strong buy volume to support their moves late last week.

Here are a few names to monitor.

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Bottoms Up to the Colt $45-Drinkin’ Oil Services

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The weekly chart of the OIH, ETF for oil service firms, indicates that it is pressed up just below the all-important $45 level. Since tagging it in late-February, the OIH pulled back about 8% over the past few weeks. Here again, we have another area of the market that gave us a stealth price correction, despite bears claiming that the entire market is frothy. In correcting down to its weekly support trendline, the oil services saw an initial surge of buying after last Tuesday’s sharp sell-off, which is exactly what bulls are looking to see at a trendline, rather than leaning down against it for too long.

After losing $45 during last summer’s swoon, the OIH has subsequently bumped its head up against that level for the better part of six months, all the while making a series of higher lows since the October 2011 bottom. That scenario lends itself to tons of pent-up demand for OIH, as the buyers are growing more confiendet with each higher low. From periods of compression usually come periods of explosion. Here, the presumption is that the explosion by the oil services will be up and out. Also note that $45 was a huge level of resistance in late-2009/early-2010. So, you know this is an area that the market deems a very important area to watch.

I will be looking at individual oil service stock ideas over the rest of the weekend.

Here are the top ten holdings of the OIH:

Schlumberger Limited SLB
Transocean Ltd RIG
Halliburton Co HAL
Baker Hughes Inc BHI
Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc DO
National Oilwell Varco Inc NOV
Noble Corporation Baar NE
Smith International Inc SII
Cameron International Corp CAM
Weatherford International Lt WFT
Nabors Industries Ltd NBR
Ensco Plc ESV
Tidewater Inc TDW
Rowan Companies Inc RDC
Exterran Holdings Inc EXH

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