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Weekly Trading Setups

After the Linsanity Has Fallen

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Jeremy Lin and the New York Knicks may very well go on to resurrect what seemed to be another lame season at Madison Square Garden early on, but I am sure even the most rabid of fans had become a bit tired of the wall-to-wall coverage that we saw over the past few weeks. So, while Jeremy Lin looks to be a rising star, “Linsanity” can quiet down a bit. Of course, in the Madison Square Garden/New York City area, lost in the mix of Linsanity and the New York Football Giants Super Bowl win is the fact that hockey’s New York Rangers are having a stellar season.

What does this have to do with anything? Well, the share price of MSG saw a technical breakout from well-defined resistance just as Linsanity was beginning, and the issue became whether or not to buy into such an apparently news-driven move. In a situation like this, I like to let the dust settle a bit. Usually, if the move is emotionally charged and unsustainable, you will see a quick collapse back below the breakout point within short order. What is impressive about the MSG move is the orderly pullback and subsequent strength on Thursday. Note how the breakout point was not in jeopardy.  In other words, Linsanity or not, this looks like a legitimate breakout and should be kept on watch.

I have also included a few other charts to keep on your watchlists for Friday.

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A Whole Lot of Precious Time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GdeU0ww4zY

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We have been looking at the idea of the financials correcting through time in lieu of a steep price pullback. For nearly a full month, the financials and large banks like Goldman Sachs have essentially gone sideways after their prior impressive rallies. While yesterday’s reversal lower was spooky and sudden, there was not only no downside follow-through today to confirm any sort of breakdown, but instead there is a reversal back higher. The financials are one of the leading sectors today, and I am stalking some of the better acting names. To be fair, the bulls also need to prove themselves with a confirmed upside breakout. Otherwise, more sideways action may be in store.

Nevertheless, it’s taken a whole lot of precious time and money for these financial charts to do it right.

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Target: Long-Term Idea

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My post several months back, at the October 2011 bottom, that Wal-Mart appeared to be on the cusp of finally breaking out was not particularly well-received. Since that post, though, WMT has seen a fairly strong move higher, especially considering how low beta the stock is. I still think Sam Walton’s pride and joy has plenty of room to go over the long haul.

In a similar vein, I believe Target is ripe for a major breakout. You can see the massive triangle on the monthly chart below. The recent shakeout down to $47 proved to be a false move, given the aggressive upside reversal back above those longer-term moving averages. Symmetrical triangles tend to work best to the upside when the bulls rip through them without taking too much time to meander through the apex. Here, Target is at that juncture where the strong move appears to have just commenced. Obviously, clearing $60 is a major hurdle. But I like Target’s prospects of following in Wal-Mart’s left-for-dead rally over the long run.

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