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Weekly Trading Setups

Yahoo! Coiled Up on the Medicine Ball

I noted on my video market recap  yesterday that the hiring of former Google executive Marissa Mayer by Yahoo! was the news du jour. There is no telling what effect the affable and politically connected Mrs. Mayer will have on the struggling, mature brand. What we do know, looking at the chart, is that periods of compression often lead to periods of explosion. The weekly chart of YHOO is now about as compressed as it can likely get. Note how the stock has basically been dead money since its crash several years back.

The ramifications of a change at the helm are always things that the market struggles to interpret, but Mrs. Mayer’s timing may very well prove to be spectacular with some resolution to the upside, which should be a very powerful one given the coiled spring for several quarters now.

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Long-Term Idea: PepsiCo, Inc.

My earlier long-term ideas in this blog have been the likes of Wal-Mart last October, Discover Financial Services last DecemberTarget last February and, oh yeah, MasterCard in March 2011. While I am predominantly a momentum-driven technical swing trader holding for days or weeks, these long-term ideas have performed magnificently. Now, go ahead and put that real-time, timestamped analysis up against any of your gurus of choice on television or in the Hamptons houses. Yeah, that’s what I thought.

Setting the bar high means you can either shy away from the pressure or embrace it. I believe that I have built a widespread and loyal reader base in recent years despite being out of the loop of the cool kids in the finance world because I don’t much care about seeking anyone’s approval. I call the market and the psychology of trading and gambling exactly as I see it, letting everyone else jockey for popularity contests and rubbing elbows at summer houses. It’s easy to talk to a big game about being a leader and innovator, but most people cannot even lead themselves. Think about that the next time you see some wannabe alpha pup post a few blogs talking a big game, only to flake out within a few months, if that.

Turning back to the long-term ideas, take a look at the Pepsico, Inc. monthly chart below. We see another massive symmetrical triangle that we observed on DFS and MA before their respective major breakouts. However, as Edwards and Magee wrote, triangles are the most typical type of chart pattern that often morphs into a larger pattern. Thus, I want to see PEP at least clear $72.50 to get me really thinking major breakout. Nevertheless, with their strong brands and global growth prospects, the time may very well have come for Pepsi to make its next move within its secular uptrend, up above its early-2008, all-time highs.

Note that earnings are scheduled for 07/25.

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Hot Action to Beat Those Summertime Blues

Inside The PPT service here on iBankCoin, you can create custom saved “screens,” isolating certain strategies appropriate for a given market. For at least today, the short-sellers have been caught badly off guard. A few years back, I created a screen isolating the highest beta, most heavily-shorted stocks that were technically set up accordingly to the algorithm. Now, inside 12631, we take these results one step further and filter them through the lens of hands-on technical analysis and sound risk management principles as to specific entries, position sizing, and exists.

Below, you will find a screen shot of some of today’s reading. There are some impressive charts on there ripe for vicious squeeze higher if the market can carry over today’s progress into next week. Click on the image for a full size view.

Current members of The PPT and 12631 can click here for the full screen in real-time (save it on upper lefthand corner of screen once inside). Please click on the respective hyperlinks to learn more about joining our services.

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Let the Colors Reset

Three of the best performers in the entire market over the past few months that I have been discussing in this blog are: PCYC SGEN SMBL. As the market continues to attempt to transition out of a corrective phase and back into a healthier one, chasing extended stocks carried much more risk than usual. Today, all three are seeing steep pullbacks, namely PCYC.

However, all three continue to have impressive daily charts, and this bout of aggressive profit-taking should be welcomed by patient traders who are waiting for better spots to allocate capital. What you are now looking to see is all three of these stocks see the selling taper off in the coming days, reset their charts with a tight base and eventually turn back up with strong buyers. That would represent a much better entry point, in all likelihood. Of course, seeing the broad market stabilize at current levels is important as well.

Nevertheless, these three have flashed major signs of being in demand, even during an 11% broad market correction earlier this summer.

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A Whole Lot of Precious Time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GdeU0ww4zY

As the overall market attempts to put in another higher low and eventually firm up enough individual charts to sustain a multi-week/month rally, patience has been the toughest skill to master. During this tedious attempted stabilization process, we can and do look for clues of accumulation, or large institutions layering into stocks they believe are bargains, in order to gauge potential leaders of the next leg higher.

Until recently, the housing sector and housing-related stocks had more or less been left for dead in recent years, understandably so with the sharp decline in home prices and home ownership. However, when you look at lumber firm WY, as well as roofing play BECN, and window/door/glass-maker NX, the bottom portion of my charts tell a story worth watching unfold. Note the volume patterns on their respective daily charts below. It does not mean that they will double in price starting tomorrow, or that you should go out and buy these stocks tomorrow looking for immediate upside.

What it does likely mean, though, is that the process of large market players accumulating these stocks has more than begun and the firms should be watched very closely going forward. If the broad market cannot sustain another leg higher this summer, these stocks probably just build a larger technical base going sideways, serving as a coiled spring.

However, on the slightest technical improvement in the broad market, such as the 50 day moving average on the senior indices starting to turn up, I expect these stocks to be out in front with strong underlying bids to not only support them but propel them much higher.

A big hat tip to 12631 member “Earl” for pointing out BECN and NX in our chat room.

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