Here was my note to members just now inside 12631, (1/2 position size if 4% of my 12631 portfolio).

New SHORT: $SBUX @ $74.49 Cover-Stop: Over $76.50. 1/2 starter. Playing for breakdown from consolidation at declining 200-day moving average for former winner weakening.

I will be back in a bit with this chart. Drop me your top afternoon ideas.

Note the coffee commodity, seen via the JO ETN, below, is ignoring overbought conditions today as it flips green.

That is our roadmap in determining if coffee is on the cusp of another meaningful leg higher in 2014 after an exhilarating first quarter and subsequent multi-month consolidation–We do not want to see a real price correction until the commodity has been pushing higher yet for quite some time.

Also note the rallies in other softs, such as cotton, corn, sugar, and wheat, all possibly following coffee, the leader, higher.

Any way you slice it, coffee has had a terrific 2014 and looks to be in its own raging bull.

____________________________________________________

I took off a piece of my LAKE long, at $10.21 from $8.59, $8.94 entries, the HazMat suit Ebola-related play, inside 12631 this morning.

I discussed this name in recent weeks on the blog as potentially benefitting from a rotation away from the likes of Ebola-related drug firms TKMR towards HazMats.

Also keep an eye on APT, another Ebola play rocking.

As I have been maintaining, these Ebola plays can trade “in their own world, oblivious to the broad market.

The following is just a small excerpt from my latest Weekly Strategy Session (please click on that hyperlink for details about trying it out) which I published for members and 12631 subscribers this past Sunday.

If the rally in the market late-last week seemed impressive on paper, but as not impressive individually, it was due to unimpressive participation across the board. As we have been noting, even the stronger indices have been sporting bearish RSI divergences since earlier this year. 

For reference, the RSI is simply the “Relative Strength Index” used to identify changes in technical momentum. Above 50 is generally considered a bullish RSI, with above 70 viewed as overbought. Trending below 50 is considered a bearish RSI pattern, with below 30 considered oversold. 

Here, the RSI is negatively diverging on both the S&P and Nasdaq weekly charts, meaning that upside momentum has clearly slowed in each index’s prior two peaks. 

Given the weakness in the Russell, a cautious stance is maintained unless and until bulls can resolve these divergences in their favor via a powerful move to fresh highs in both price and RSI.

Please click here to continue reading

Some extended consumer names, such as Marriott, are showing signs of breaking steep trends.

On the daily chart, below, note the potential bear flag consolidation ripe to break lower. Because of the steepness of the prior uptrend, the stock becomes all the more enticing of a short on weakness. Similar comments apply to the likes of CAR HOT WYN.

Drop me your top tickers overnight.

____________________________________________________________________