As strong as Treasuries have been in 2014, this Monday gap lower in TLT may very well be a bearish breakaway gap lower.
My view continues to be that 2014 has been a sentiment unwind in the bond market, considering how bearish (including me) everyone became late-last year in terms of expecting higher rates.
As usual, the rally has lasted longer than I expected, and I side-stepped fighting the tape by quickly stopping out of any short attempts I made.
But the monthly TLT chart shows this potential bear market rally may be stopping dead in its tracks at the up-sloping neckline of the busted, multi-year head and shoulders top.
Bond bulls may not be able to fly away higher so fast this time…
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Totally off the board, but do you happen to find either CM or BNS to be particularly contemptible from a technical perspective? I have been plotting an opportunity to get short Canadian banks for a couple of years, but didn’t see the chance with such powerful market tailwinds. I am starting to feel that subsiding and stalking entries (esp. with all the major CEO’s stepping down recently), but was looking to solicit a fresh perspective on the two that seemed least sound from an initial flyover of the comparative fundamentals. Thanks for any insights!
Favor BNS as a short as this point, on any further weakness.
Many thanks. That was my plan. Trying to build a small pile of puts in play with WDAY, UPS, a casino, and a Canadian bank. So far I’ve just got WDAY and I’d expect to grab UPS tomorrow. Upset I missed the casinos today, but great job! (was traveling at the end of last week and couldn’t get orders in)
Didn’t that H&S already hit it’s price target at around 100??
I see it going to $92 before it’s hit.