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While not overly-inspiring action underneath the surface, the market is clearly in bounce mode if only as a relief from not swooning yesterday.
We could easily see this action again tomorrow, even with the overall corrective pattern still in place.
Stay tuned for my video market recap after the bell for more analysis.
Comments »The precious metals and miners have been a fine mess of late, as they are all still essentially trading vehicles.
I have been laying off the action in the space for a while now. But the recent weakness has gold bears thinking a fresh leg lower is imminent.
First and foremost, the multi-quarter bullish RSI divergences in the gold miners are still in play, with the GDX ETF needing to hold $22.20 on the downside.
As far as the yellow metal itself, or at least its GLD ETF, I would need to see a close back under $122.50 to get me thinking a major breakdown is at hand. For now, it is simply sloppy but still holding above the breakout level for the confirmed inverse head and shoulders bottom. A move back over $128.40 sees me getting active on the long side again.
Silver remains the weak link in the group, with the $19 area in general needing to hold now as support.
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The first test of the middle Bollinger Band, or 20-day moving average on the S&P 500 Index, has been for for about five points today off the highs.
It is nothing too dramatic or bearish yet, by any stretch, but we are seeing some price sensitivity to Bollinger Band analysis, with the recent punch of the lower Band leading to a middle Band test today.
The issue I see is the holiday week and accompanying action. The feel is one of a grinding, drifting market. To be bearish again, I would have preferred to have seen an exuberant, fast rally today which then sharply rolled over. I am still likely going to lay off the action until early-next week, given my recent string of wins and avoiding drawdowns.
Keep an eye on that 1858 level now.
What are you trading this afternoon?
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I look for stocks whose Daily PPT Hybrid Score surges, while the Weekly Hybrid has been negative over the past week. This can often yield stocks which are emerging from consolidations.
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Please click on image to enlarge.
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THD, the country ETF for Thailand, is acting very well this morning
The daily chart shows a base breakout, though the entangled moving averages still have some work to do to clean up the chart.
The weekly suggest Thailand is not out of the woods yet, with the potential for a major topping out pattern if prices loses the low-$60’s again.
Watch out for that downdraft, but if Thailand can make a higher low next week I would look to be a buyer given today’s action.
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