Joined Apr 1, 2010
8,861 Blog Posts
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Chess, I appreciate the weekend video analysis, and enjoyed it while dining on my lunch at work. I’m still hopeful for emerging markets and copper as well as steel. This isn’t the exact article I read last week, but it contains the same comments from the $FCX CEO: http://www.mining-journal.com/production-and-markets/morgan-stanley-sees-strong-demand-for-copper,-zinc2
MPET presentation last week says UK core shale acreage worth $3.15/share comparable to recent nearby sales. UK shale 5-10X thicker than Bakken. MPET owns heart of the Browse shale play developing.
copper lollygaggers
I would like the commodity rally to continue so that A – I can bank coin and B – I can enjoy more of these weekend vids 🙂
[IF} Dr. Copper does breakdown perhaps we are looking at a coming global; “Stagflation” picture like the 1970’s.
Remember then the soft commodities & precious metals rallied & industrial demand was flat at best.
Hi Ches, good video…as usual….you asked for feedback, so here is mine: i have been noticing the divergence of copper from the food commodities too…in addition to the softs and grains the meats have been rallying as well…the main buyer of copper is China and i think Copper is a direct correlation to China growth or at the very least the perceived view of China growth….back a few years ago China was buying and hoarding tons of copper so the price rallied but since then it has been pretty flat to weak….i also noticed lately tons of stock traders talking about the grains….specifically corn. so it’s possible that retail and hedgies are getting into the food commods again like they were a hot stock. that could be a reason for the sudden jump….with equities at all time highs and the grains at the start of 2014 were pretty depressed, as you said. people were just looking for value…..and the commodity markets are not huge, so some retail and hedge fund buying could have definitely created a short squeeze…..there is tons of corn….so there really wasn’t a fundamental reason for the rise in the price and there were no weather issues at that time….i thought corn was going to dip to about $3.50 ish and stay there for a bit and then move higher….i was wrong….when i saw retail traders in my stream talking about corn i should have known….anyway sorry such a long opinion 🙂
from: melinda on twitter @jeanienyc
Chess, I worked for a mining sub-contractor while attending college in the early 90’s. MSHA, the Mining Safety & Health Administration, would issue a “Fatalgram”, and mail it to all industry participants any time a mining related death would occur. They were bizarre little cartoons that described the horrific demise of some poor ham & egger. You can see some examples here: http://upstart.bizjournals.com/multimedia/slideshows/2007/08/Youve-Got-Fatalgrams.html
The current ones seem to use photos instead, but are found on the MSHA site here: http://www.msha.gov/fatals/fabm2013.asp#.UxuWfJFlDJv
Sub headline for the video: “Fatalgram for Dr. Copper?”… 😉
Shortened growing season could affect corn yields. Weak dollar supporting moves in PMs and softs. Yet China slow down will hurt industrial metals. Dollar is key.
Should add Ukraine is the #3 corn producer.
Hi, the major drag on copper lately was the first Chinese bond default, as hundreds if not thousands of tons of copper are used as a relatively liquid collateral in China. It would be a very ugly domino effect, if there were some more Chinese defaults in the coming months followed by forced liquidation. Enjoy your Sunday, best wishes from London!!
There are a couple reasons the soft commodities are rallying:
1) The *long* downtrend in grains has made it near unprofitable for farmers to soley focus on growing grains.
2) The Ukraine is the third largest grower of corn. The situation with Russia is deteriorating and has gotten worse this weekend.
3) there is a budding drought in the US cornbelt. It could be resolved before planting season but right now key areas are very dry
Really starting to like your videos 🙂 thanks for your work.
One more comment to support what I’ve said above… I’ve listened to the last 2 Deere conference calls. The number one concern for analysts was declining grain prices and a coinciding decease in farmers purchasing machinery. This supports the thesis that lower grain prices have forced farmers to focus profit making efforts elsewhere.