JO is not doing much today, but it is still holding over $23 like it needs to and is perhaps bull-flagging.
If the coffee thesis interests you, check out this piece.
Some excerpts:
Coffee has been under pressure due to high levels of production out of the world’s largest coffee grower, Brazil. But supply is expected to be lower in 2014, particularly due to recent inclement weather.
December 2013 was “an extremely wet month” for many parts of Brazil, the NASA Earth Observatory reported. And rain can damage coffee plants, reducing output and consequently boosting price.
“We have seen quite a turbulent move to the upside, and that’s because of some forecast changes,” said futures trader Jeff Kilburg of KKM Financial.
“We saw forecaster Volcafe tone down their optimistic estimates. A lot of folks have been thinking about 60 million bags [of supply], but what we saw in December down in Brazil is a substantial amount of rain, potentially damaging the product. Therefore we are seeing the forecast drop down to 51 million bags, and that really put a sense of urgency into folks coming in and buying it.”
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Thanks for sharing! Really illustrating to compare the fundamental and technical picture like that.
Cheers, J
Another interesting read on the Coffee market via IBD “Brewing Coffee Shortage Could Fire Up Prices 800%” http://news.investors.com/investing-etfs/010814-685640-brewing-shortage-coffee-fire-up-prices.htm