I took a partial win and then a loss on my long UCO (ultra-long crude ETF) position a few weeks back during crude oil’s initial and quite obvious multi-year symmetrical breakout attempt to the upside (weekly chart, second below).
Since then, black gold has failed to adequately follow-through to the downside to give oil bears the setup they needed to pounce on a major leg lower. Instead, crude actually seems to have regained its footing and is pushing higher today. A move back above recent highs (basically above $99/barrel) makes a strong case that the original bullish breakout thesis is very much in play and happening.
Until then, expect more sloppy action, and try to stay clean from the oil spills short or long.
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The biggest problem is USO is a terrible ETF. It may not be as bad as UNG but it’s pretty craptastic.
Can’t argue with that, I should’ve used the actual crude chart. But same analysis applies to technical setup.
agree with your analysis here Chess, it needs to show me the money this time
Thanks!