Although this blog is often seen as focusing on technical swing trading, you would be misguided in pigeonholing it as such.
Readers over the years know that I offer analysis on prospective long-term plays as well, be it looking for multi-year breakouts in DFS HNZ GIS K PEP TGT WMT, among others, dating back to 2010. All before the fact or in the very early stages of the breakout, and all in real-time. As always with my writing, the decision is ultimately yours, as it is your money. I do not discuss my long-term positions, so as not to confuse it with my swing trades. Beyond that, I want the focus to stay on the quality of my analysis (Obviously, if we are talking about penny or thinly-trades stocks, I will disclose whether I have a position. But these long-term plays are almost always hundred billion dollar firms of which I have no ability to move).
Furthermore, I keep several different portfolios, each with its own timeframe and style, so as not to commingle. In order to keep the styles separate for each portfolio, I use something akin to The Method, by Lee Strasberg, getting into character with each portfolio.
Since 2010, and most recently last July, another long-term breakout we have observed in real-time has been Berkshire Hathaway. I still maintain we are talking about an increasingly economically-sensitive empire here, as Buffett and Charlie Munger (pictured above), have embraced more cyclical films in recent years. For that reason, I use Berkshire not just on a standalone basis but also as a broad market tell.
Updating the monthly timeframe, below, the stock has staged a powerful multi-year symmetrical triangle breakout, as we had anticipated. But the stock is now riding along its upper monthly Bollinger Band–A sign of true strength, no doubt. However, I would not allocate fresh capital, even for the long-term, just yet. Much like many leading stocks on longer-term timeframes, Berkshire is a bit stretched here, and while it could stretch out higher yet, the risk-to-reward ratio is unfavorable.
If you are not currently in Berkshire and would like to be, or would like to add to an existing long, I suspect you will have a better, lower risk opportunity, to do so as we move into the summer months.
I will update the chart at that time.
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Thanks,I’ve been neglecting that,I know I have to many speculative Stocks and need to rotate!
Except for a small $AAPL dollar cost averaging account (yes you’re right, those DON’T actually work), I’ve been 100% cash since October. Looking forward to those summer opportunities.