It remains to be seen if BlackBerry (formerly RIMM) can form a higher low on its chart and continue on for a massive bearish to bullish multi-year reversal. However, regarding the initial thrust since last autumn it appears we were looking at a bigger force at play than merely a relief rally because the firm was not immediately going out of business, after all.
Specifically, price could have easily been leading the following news, via Forbes.com:
BlackBerry’s new smartphone is stealing iPhone and Android users, according to a recent note by RBC Capital markets, which shows 45% of those buying Z10s converted from the two leading operating systems. Recent data points suggest BlackBerry’s fourth quarter sell-through rate will come in substantially stronger than initially expected. While projections were low to start with, both consumer and enterprise demand look encouraging. BlackBerry 10’s success or failure will ultimately depend on U.S. demand, though, which makes up approximately 20% of the company’s subscriber base, according to RBC Capital Markets. (emphasis added)
As I noted in a video last night where I took 12631 member chart requests, an upside breach of $18 is critical for the new leg in the bull reversal, while holding $13 as downside support is crucial for not giving up recent progress after several years of being a laughingstock.
There may indeed be risk and volatility here, but the darker the BlackBerry the sweeter the potential upside juice, with as many shorts remain in the name.
