Ford: Major Top or Trap?

The monthly chart above of Ford shows the rally in recent years off the jaw-dropping low hit in late-2008. It is easy to point out a possible head and shoulder topping pattern taking place now. However, my sense is that it is likely to be a trap to lure in bears desperately wanting Ford to crack as a proxy for another global criss. The 50 period monthly moving average (blue line) is still turning higher. Note how reliable the previously downsloping 50 period monthly moving average was in terms of sticking with the bear trend virtually all of last decade.

Thus, I give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls on this long-term timeframe.