We saw a heinous fade at the open after a promising gap higher. No matter how many potential leaders, winners, and charts holding up well that I can proffer in this blog, the reality is that the aggregate price discovery mechanism of the market is going to have the final say as to what happens. In other words, the greatest looking baseball pitcher’s wind up means nothing if he proceeds to throw a 75 mph meatball over home plate.
Showing more patience and sticking to that heavy cash position when the 50 day moving averages are declining on the major index charts is not the sexiest of strategies, but it sure does prevent a myriad of damaging losses to your portfolio. Despite the conservative stance, though, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain above some key levels which means sticking with the idea of an improving market is still on the table.
Thus, I am playing the part of the non-confrontational stalker with this market–Actively following it but not engaging it with any sort of direct, aggressive allocation of capital yet. We know the biotechs and health food/wellness sectors have been hot, but it is going to take more than a pocket here or there to sustain an uptrend. I got stopped out of my LNKD long in 12631 after it signaled that, at a minimum, it needs more time to base out despite its recent outperformance. I am seeing many other charts sending the same message.