We are twelve years deep in the current secular bear market that began in 2000 with the dot-com crash. Typically, secular bear markets are comprised of vicious swoons, such as what we saw in 2000-2002/3 and then 2007-2009. In between, cyclical bull markets can drift on light overall volume for much longer than seems reasonable given the broadly negative backdrop of a secular bear. In the end, you usually see a major secular bear lasting anywhere from 12-20+ years, with price grinding sideways, net-net, despite the wild swings.
While the current deflationary economic backdrop to this secular bear vastly differs from the 1966-1982 inflationary bear, the technical structure seems to rhyme, even if it does not repeat. It can most certainly be argued that the current secular bear is far more devastating, thus needing more time to heal. I do not necessarily disagree with that view.
For the purposes of observing the final years of a secular bear, have a look at the quarterly Dow chart below of the 1966-1982 bear. Whenever the next secular bull arrives (we are still in a cyclical bull at the moment, incidentally), I suspect the wall of worry will be even more pronounced that at any point since March 2009, as hard as that may be to fathom. I also expect buy volume on the major indices to swell, which is something we have not seen in quite some time.
Of course, the Robert Prechter’s of the world will argue that this time truly is different, and that a long consolidation pattern during a secular bear is actually a topping pattern this time, rather than the base to propel us higher such as was the case in 1966-1982.
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would be interested to compare the macro situation then and the catalysts that propulsed the market higher. what is different then vs now and work scenarios out.