1. More of the same volatility in global markets, with fits and starts caused by an ongoing secular bear market combined with easy monetary policy.
2. Barack Obama wins re-election in November not because he is a great president, but because Republicans continue to miserably fail to connect with the silent majority of Americans.
3. Tim Geithner steps down as Secretary of the Treasury, paving the way for Michael Bloomberg to eventually replace him.
4. After Facebook IPO’s, several prominent social media firms are discovered to be Ponzi schemes.
5. Mega-cap Dow stocks such as Wal-Mart and Microsoft outperform the likes of Apple and Priceline.com to the upside.
6. Berkshire Hathaway (“A” shares) is the best performing stock in 2012 for any firm with a market cap over $50 Billion.
7. Tensions and acts of aggression continue to rise in the Middle East, causing wild fluctuations in the oil markets. However, there is no clear trend in oil for the year and it remains a short-term trader’s market.
8. As extended government safety-net benefits run out and unemployment remains stubbornly high, crime increases dramatically in urban centers and suburbs. In particular, New York City and other major cities along the Eastern seaboard become the dangerous places to live not seen since the 1980’s.
9. New York City approves a major casino to open in Manhattan in order to generate massive revenue, further reinforcing #8.
10. The Mexican drug cartel continues to dominate the southern border of America, effectively owning southern Arizona and New Mexico. However, Republicans and the mainstream media fail to adequately confront the current administration about it, and we see a replay of the drug cartel situation in Miami from three decades ago.
Chess
Regarding number 10…better call Saul!
^ Win!
Ha!
2. On the Obama win, Ron Paul’s likely run on the Libertarian ticket will siphon votes from Romney. A growing number of people want to send the old guard Republican machine that they are dull witted embarrassments, unfit to lead, incapable of solving real problems in the world.
3. Re Bloomberg replacing Geithner: would be a good choice. Bloomberg could also make a credible run for the Presidency as he’s had national security responsibilities, and the whole self-made billionaire thing trumps Romney’s business experience as far as claims to being the grown up in the room. Obama could also offer Bloomberg the Sec of State role to keep him out of the race.
I’ve learned a lot observing your analyses this year and appreciate the opportunity to ask questions to you, the IBC team, and players in 12631.
Pax
Wow, more gloom and doom.
ALL of them. Only Jake left, and we all know that one is going to be bad. LOL
Chess, there is already the biggest casino in NYC—Wall Street 😀
Truth
I really hope all of you are wrong about Obama getting re-elected. I am surprised every single one of you (haven’t read Jake’s yet) predict that.
I hate Obama more than I have ever hated any president, and I had the most faith/hope/trust in him.
Explain yourself, man. Hate is a strong word.
Hate is not a strong enough word, in my opinion.
He said he would bring peace, an end to the wars we have been engaged in.
I voted for him on that one premise alone. I don’t care so much if I have to pay for others health care, or for their food, or for their educations, I just don’t want 18 year olds getting sent off to war. I don’t want them having to kill, or being killed.
I don’t want any more murder.
That is what war is, plain and simple.
I have a friend who grew up in a war torn country. Her entire family murdered before her eyes. She lived her entire childhood in unimaginable terror.
My father was a helicopter search and rescue pilot in Nam. I grew up on military bases, and I know what it does to families and soldiers alike.
Obama is a liar. He is a coward and a liar.
What more is there to say about him that matters?
Now, there is talk of new wars.
I don’t think hate is a strong enough word.
Our presidents job is to keep us out of war. That is his job.
I thought he end meaningless iraq war and some meaningful AF war, no?
Uhhh, our troops are leaving Iraq as we type these messages.
Right, just to get the soldiers ready for the next invasions.
Your emotion is exactly why obama will be re-elected again. Nobody in GOP focus more on the real issue than booting obama from oval office. GOP’s tracking record and debates are not even funny to watch.
Also, BTW, the obama’s economic policy seems same as Bush’s so GOP raise the flag of tax cut which we all know doesn’t work for the 99%.
Chess,
pls explain #6. Is that because BH has most defensive stocks?
Add my 2c, middle class will shrink more and corp tax loophole will be plugged.
If you are talking to me, and my emotion, explain why it is that Obama will be re-elected because of it. I see very little commentation on the issue of war. Everyone seems to be talking of healthcare, and his policy on green energy, etc.
How about the “Indefinite Detention Act”, or his allowing the “Patriot Act” to remain in effect. Are those not aggressive, war like stances? Those are just more acts of agression, but designed so that they are against the American people and not just supposed “terrorists”.
I am not speaking of his economic policy being similar to the Bush administration. I am speaking of his tone on war. I am speaking only about his stance on war.
He is just as agressive as Bush was, only he said it would be different. He promised it.
To me, war is the only issue, and everything else would work itself out, given free markets.
I am not eloquent enough or educated enough apparently to be able to vocalize why I feel so strongly about this, but I do know that the one area that means the most is not the one that people are talking about.
@chanci
The biggest foe for Obama is economy and that’s the area he needs to put all his energy NOW. Healthcare is side issue. US should have a public healthcare system to lower the med cost.
Regarding your broadly-defined war, on the ballpark, I think he’s taken the most difficult step, which is withdrawal of troops from active wars even that might jeopardize the whole thing. Meanwhile I wish there were more US involvement for Lybia, which supports the best of western value system. Then I hope he can cut DOD budget which will immediately improve fiscal condition. Changing decades-long world police policy (including all items you mentioned) is not easy and I think GOP (McCain,etc) is the main resistance.
Removing harsh preventative policy has harsh consequence in what-if scenario and shouldn’t take easily. BTW, I didn’t heard “Patriot Act” is part of his promise.
Yes, he said he would not allow the Patriot Act to be reinstated, once the time frame was up on it. And then he did.
I have read the arguments on not withdrawing our troops from Iraq, because of Iran’s threat to them. They don’t want us there, we are not doing them any good, and shouldn’t have been there to begin with.
What is so hard about just saying no more? It is the greed of the central bankers. That is all it is, and Obama succumbed to them. Hell, they put him in office. And we fell for it.
Why are these countries our business? Why are our children there?
If the US took a hardcore no war policy, if we promoted peace instead of war, if we said our “war against terrorism” was a dramatic and ill conceived act of terror in and of itself…
Why should the US be involved in Lybia?
Where does it end? Why not end it here. That is what the people believed would happen when they voted for Obama.
The people voted him in because of what he said. Do you think most people care about money more than life? No. Do you think they care about a quality of life when they are faced with their fathers, brothers, sons, daughters going to war? NO.
That is what we voted for when we voted for Obama.
Why does everyone discount the American people so much to think all they care about are themselves.
Not true.
That is the platform the next presidential candidate should take.
Peace. Way more important than anything else anyone is arguing about. And every citizen would vote for that.
Only, don’t lie this time.
YXD,
I will take into consideration what you said. I will think about it, and try to keep an open mind.
Don’t mind me, I just hate war and can’t believe we still engage in such a barbaric custom, and that everybody goes along with it. Makes me more than ill just thinking about it.
yeah #6 – just think BH is undervalued and will be safe haven
wells fargo will drag down BH as well. Not sure what could be the king in stagflation environment.
Chess – you’ve been watching too many gangster movies (#8,9,10). Love your work. Happy New Year!
LOL u2
The only way Obama doesn’t win the election is if Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination. This is because it is likely that Ron Paul will run for President regardless of whether it is as a Republican or an Independent.
Ron Paul is no show. The guy cannot even explain his own newsletter. Also he is not FDR to make whoever wins to focus on the real issue.
The casino in Manhattan seems like it’s from leftfield. Where’d you get that one?? I mean, the whole city is a casino, so why would you think one casino would change anything? Just another pimple on the tuchus–you read that right.
Otherwise, Bloomberg as treasury sec. It had never occurred to me. Could be a brilliant move, actually, though I’ve come to dislike the bloomster for his thickheaded and apparatchnick-informed education follies. I’ve got two kids in school in NYC and Bloomie does little while claiming revolution. And the “quality-of-life” improvements have made traffic horrible.