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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_pGT8Q_tjk&feature=related 550 412]____________
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xBydH93eDY&feature=related 550 412]____________
So sorry for being “that guy” who performs technical analysis on charts of cockeyed concocted financial instruments (the horror, OMG!). Looking at a daily chart of VXX, however, compels me to at least discuss the idea that this is one of the more bullish charts that I see at the moment. Note the steep downtrend, followed by a notable increase in buy volume to support the recent spike up. Since the move higher, we now have a small series of higher lows, settling into tight symmetrical triangle. Also note this is the first time since last September that the VXX has spent any reasonable amount of time above the 20 day moving average (now flattening and turning up, for good measure).
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What about the actual VIX, you say? Same deal. Residing above the 20 and 50 day moving averages more comfortably than at any point since the rally in equities began last September. If the bulls are going to see the November scenario I discussed in my previous post, I believe a spike in volatility would likely throw a wet blanket on that idea.
Watch the VIX.
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Classic YouTube, and great post my man!
Thanks, Brother Moose.
Good point. I wasn’t looking at that at all. I do like the hammer on FCX though.
Turned out to be a long legged doji–similar tho
yes, yeeeeeessss, yeeeeeeeeeeesssssss!
a VIX spike is exactly what we need, scare the crap out of some people, get everybody running around and pontificating and drinking gaseous substances and buying VXX and FAZ and generally just wetting themselves.
For that is when opportunity knocks most wondrously.
Or longs get buttfucked into oblivion this time.
lol
I think the oblivion-dicking was in late 08 and early 09.
And therein lies the entire point. The panic and magnitude of VIX spike then, AND last summer, are outliers. These are not normal events, and in fact are extremely rare (once every 15 years perhaps and once every 5 at most, respectively)…
But the recent occurence of two such events shall, I am convinced, result in the market badly mispricing certain things and the probability of certain events for at least a year or two to come. Etc, blah blah.
How many times have interest rates been at 0, yet liquidity has not been able to reach the public sector? In ’03 – ’07 we just let homeowners refi and pull an extra $200K out of their house. People are still sitting in their floating rate mortgages horribly underwater, and will certainly lose their house when interest rates rise.
How many times has that happened?
Hmmm
You may have wanted the Polaner All fruit commercial:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xBydH93eDY
It’s in the post!