Known Unknowns

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MARKET WRAP UP 09/29/10

In another day of consolidation just below the significant 1150 level, the S&P 500 finished down 0.26% to 1144. While breadth was far from inspiring, even the most ardent bear could not deny the underlying strength seen in many individual issues, as well as broadly in the energy sector. The argument could be made that the weakness in the broad indices masked the true strength seen today, as we saw many breakouts and pockets of momentum continue to flourish.

At the same time, we are coming up on the end of the third quarter, and have a slew of economic data that will be released to close out this week. As usual, the actual data itself is not as important as the reaction to it by the market. Regardless, the amount of variables at play creates an abundance of known unknowns. The bulls have dominated the month of September, and they have earned the benefit of the doubt at this point, as the S&P 500 continues to operate above all major moving averages. Thus, my portfolio remains net long.

The bears may very well be on the cusp of a major reversal, as the market has been unable to stay above 1150 long enough to drink a cup of coffee. However, the assortment of potentially bearish hanging man candles printed yesterday saw no real confirmation to the downside today, given the benign pullback. Therefore, we are simply going to need to see more evidence of a change in trend before a bearish bias can be assumed.

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