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MARKET WRAP UP 09/02/10
If I had to most precisely isolate the overarching sentiment of traders, it would best be described as cautious pessimism. By now, the secular headwinds facing the economy are well known. When these macro issues are combined with the sharp correction that we saw in equities in May, followed by the past three months of choppy, amorphous price action, it is no wonder that most market players are expecting, at best, a continued sideways market.
With the prevailing belief being that we are either going down or sideways, in addition to the fact that we held the lower end of the trading range this week, I am still in the camp that says it is correct to have a hearty risk appetite at this point in time. If we move above 1120 or so, then I will likely become more cautious again (as many others will presumably become more and more bullish). Normally, my preferred style is to not be much of a contrarian, as I want to ride established trends. However, as I noted several months ago, I was either going to have to adjust to this market, or sit out entirely. Given the fact that this broad trading range can continue much longer than anyone thinks possible, I decided to adjust.
As for today, the bulls impressed with solid follow through on yesterday’s massive rally. With the S&P 500 closing up 0.91% to 1090, the bulls recaptured both the 20 and 50 day simple moving averages, as the updated and annotated daily chart illustrates below.
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Updating the daily charts of other key indices and sectors, we likewise saw sound follow through from yesterday’s rally. This follow through helps to reinforce the possibility that a series of double bottoms and inverted head and shoulders have been formed.
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After trend traders dominated in 2008 (down) and 2009 (up), my working thesis for 2010 is that those trend traders need to be humbled. The nature of a secular bear market, which I believe we have been in since 2000, is that all excesses are washed out, not just in the economy at large but also in the market. When we tested 1040 a few days ago, many traders mistakenly assumed the downtrend would persist. Instead, we are seeing that 2010 is shaping up to be the year of the range trader.
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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3QEKT2mk_Q&ob=av3e 450 300]r
Excellent.
Nice work.
Tomorrow will be interesting. Actually, it will be interesting in two ways. One, if the report is as bad or worse than expected, it will be interesting to see how firm the market stays. If the report is marginally better than expected, it will be interesting to see what happens around the 200 day on the SPX. I really think another break above th 200 could be determinative.
Chess, I got a question for ya… and this is in no way meant to be any sort of challenge, or argument… I just would like to learn more about this subject. Keep in mind that I have only been trading for 36 months…
Why do you believe that we have been in a secular bear market since 2000?
I also believe that we are in a secular bear market, but I thought that it began in 2007 – 2008? After all, we did make an all time closing high in 2007.
If it’s not too much to ask, could you please explain & elaborate on your views (perhaps even do a post about this topic)?
Thank you.
We did make new highs on the Dow and S&P (marginally) in 2007 but it was on decreased momentum and weakening internals compared to 1982-2000. I am speaking in terms of long term cycles. Look at a long term chart of the Nasdaq–where most of the growth is happening in our economy–and you will see what I am talking about.
Thanks Chess. I see what you mean… the Nasdaq is more relevant and it didn’t make a new high in 2007. I appreciate your insight.