iBankCoin
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Joined Apr 1, 2010
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A Summer That is Breaking Bad

What’s not to like?

Well, there is an awful lot out there not to like. We know the macroeconomic data has been manipulated to be merely very bad, upgraded from the reality of it being a Gerald Celente wet dream. Beyond the data, the charts are slumping. Sideways or down is the predominant theme across the charts of the major sectors and indices.

In addition, some of the high beta small cap names had every chance to breakout to the upside by this point in the summer, yet have gone in the other direction. As an example, check out the charts of two small cap natural gas plays: $GMXR and $SD. You would think with the way natty was performing earlier this summer, combined with hurricane season and the aversion to crude after the $BP spill, that these guys would have been ripping to the upside.

Instead, after forming mulit-month bases, they are BTF….DOWN.

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The main chart that is preventing me from turning bearish continues to be the emerging markets ETF, $EEM. These guys bottomed out over a month before we did, and have made a series of higher lows ever since. The moving averages have become so compressed, you can barely tell them apart, even with color coding. A big move is coming soon, but it might not be until the symmetrical triangle reaches its apex in the next few weeks, denoted by the pink lines on the daily chart below.

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Regardless, if you are a raging bull here, you do not want to get caught “breaking bad” to the point where you have to rely on a last second bailout like this (the best show on television, imho):

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RB8t0CCZB4 450 300]r

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8 comments

  1. Sum_Ting_Wong

    Look ( I apologize for caps yesterday BTW…)

    Was trying to catch you quickly…

    Anyway…

    With all the devastation going on (Pakistan and other Asian catastrophes) draughts…floods…storms etc etc…shouldn’t we be focusing on materials to replace rebuild and feed these suckers?

    Cattle…grains…transportation/shipping etc etc….YES I KNOW “HEARTLESS BEAST”
    Business is business

    Now …back to business…those cows are $$ and there has to be only a few places we should be looking…

    Just an idea

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  2. youngnate

    WALTER WHITE ALL DAY

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  3. Spyder_Crusher

    EBIX is still holding up for me.

    breaking bad is a cool show

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  4. VC

    Hey Chess,

    I know you are out of TBT, but it has just ticked positive now (maybe not by closing time) but do you think this is a tell as a possibility that money will flow back into stocks for the time being? People with money have no where to hide….

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    • chessnwine

      If TLT rolls over, then that will be bullish for stocks IMO. TBT going higher will be a consequence of TLT falling.

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  5. 7fizzle

    Worked out ok for me today… still in the game.

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  6. cna training

    Great information! I’ve been looking for something like this for a while now. Thanks!

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