Lock ‘N Load

This was a significant rally today in that we did close above 826 S&P. Do not short this market unless you plan to day trade. People I am talking to are looking to buy pullbacks. You see, it’s human nature to want to see things get better. In addition, many just want to “stick it to the bears” for all the pain they’ve caused the average bull. There’s still a healthy amount of skepticism out there as well, which is an added benefit for a continued rally.

We’ve now rallied 23% off the low on 3/9. The rally off the 11/20/08 low was 24%, so we’ve essentially equalled that. Now comes tomorrow’s test to see if we can close this week on a positive note. So far, the S&P is up 8.4% for the week.

I expect to see the market give some back tomorrow, but even if we close the week up 6%, that is still a huge win. This rally will still be intact, in my opinion.

I’m thinking a target of a 30% rally off the 3/9 bottom, which puts the endpoint somewhere between 875-880 S&P. Just a guess. We’ll see what happens if or when we get there.

The happy day for the bulls is when the bears finally roll over with a broken back, writhing on the floor in pain. We haven’t seen that yet.

People talk about 1,000+ point down days on the Dow, but who’s talking a 1,000+ point up day? If there’s one impression this past year has left on me, it’s to expect the unexpected.

We shall see.