A few seconds ago Fly mentioned he might be taking profits in his bank longs, I’ve decided to cash out of [[UYG]] .
Until the DOW trades and stays above 11,700, I’m cautious.
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Joined Jan 27, 2008
7,405 Blog Posts
anyone wanna short ABK?
up 300% in 1 month…30% today.
hmmmm….
Oops. Too late.
what u think about shorting ABK or LEH, Financials, is today the day or would you wait
is it just me or does anyone else want to buy everything in sight in China and throw it away and come back in five years with 5x current price on all of them? HOGS, AOB, EJ, NTES?
can someone convince me otherwise before i do something stupid?
CTGX breaks. small float!! Not for faint of heart.
China is a lucrative investment, but it’s had billions of people for a long time and they’ve been pushing towards modernization for a long time too. It’s not “new.” The trend is towards westernization (thats the bull story, you know, ‘America in the 1950s’) but it’s China. I think that assumption/conclusion for China’s path is debatable. They are not free market.
You say five years. How about 30? Then I say yes.
Coke is a venerable company that’s been public for a long time. It had a 50 pe in 1950, which I’m sure was due to it’s “growth rate.”
Then from 1970 – 1981, it lost 25%, excluding divs. That’s 11 long years of gay. Then, in the next twenty years, it returned 1300%.
Did KO ever suck? Was it a bad investment? I’m sure people had bearish views over time, but it persevered because of the mgt., product, name brand, etc.
I guess my point is that there are Cokes of China, and GEs of china, and they will grow prosperously. But there will likely be decades of underperformance in between. So to assign yourself to the next five may be crazy.
also worth noting is that NTES was on my new intraday highs list
Danny, I agree with your premise. I just really see some very cheap companies on a valuation basis- guy adami
but the specific three I am talking about have gotten the homo hammer over the past year plus and have large cash positions…EJ, AOB, and HOGS are my favorite
How about those oil picks of yours? Market BTFO and your “all in” plays take a shit.
Odd, no?
I thought you were not watching or trading anything but this storm and energy? Gald to see you WTFU and scratched that idea.
This is your friendly reminder that the fantasy football draft is in 1 hour.
For the rest of ya, it’s still not too late to sign up (see post in PG)!
This was posted on optionaddict.com……
This site “JUMPED THE SHARK”
There is no doubt about it. Jeff had an awesome site that was getting a ton of hits, traffic, and community involvment. Then, he goes an starts TA and leaves everyone who didnt join holding the bag. If you really think about it, it was a horrible business move. Cut off more than half your visitors to profit off few. He went for the short money (monthly fee) when he could have developed OA even more and sold it one day for real money. Now, he leaves this leftover,quiet ghost town thinking people who dont join his 300 only pay service (which isnt close to sold out) will somehow stick around and make/keep the site great like it was before. It will never happen. People have many options when it comes to content. (free and pay). And frankly, how could you expect them to stick around.
If your 300 dont stick around and you cant keep adding new subscribers, your done. YOU took everyone that visited OAand contributed on the tread for GRANTED, the community that was. It wasnt just about you and your insights, it was about trading ideas with regulars. Like it or not, you will never have it again on this site (OA), and you will never have it on the new site (TA). because 3/4 of the family just moved out of town. Blogs are only as good as the traffic and involment of everyone. Pay sites are only as good as your total subscribers, which my friend, you will struggle to get and then hope they decided to stay. Meanwhile the other 3/4 dont join the pay service will find another home (site)
Sorry to be harsh Jeff, but you fucked yourself. and just gave away a TON of people and visitors for what $59 a month for 300 people (HOPEFULLY).- dumb dumb dumb. Did you put any thought into this move before hand. Yeah, I know, I know, you want to keep it small and do it because you love to teach and keep your skills keen blah blah blah. But you might as well shut OA down because it is gasping for air and will die a fast death. Im sure that was a decision you made and new what the outcome would be.
Look on the bright side, you just helped to direct thousands away from OA and to other place like ibanckcoin.com , hitthebid.net and many others.
By the way, the trip idea is bullshit. You cut off a third of your traffic to earn a few bucks, put everyone else out, then want to smooth things over and have an outing? Your kidding right? If you want everyone to get together, come visit us all over at ibackcoin.com. We will be enjoying our new home and not spending money on airfare tickets and hotle to be with a few people from TA.
Thanks but no thanks.
Citigroup report out on WFR tonight:
MEMC Electronic Materials Inc (WFR)
FQ3:08 (Sept) Mid-Q Update Preview
*Expect slight raise for FQ3:08 (Sept) — WFR hosts a mid-Q update after market close Tuesday 9/2. Consistent with our thesis all Q, we see no reason why WFR can’t raise and tighten FQ3:08 (Sept) revenue guidance by ~$25MM
from midpoint of ~$590 to midpoint of ~$620MM or maybe just slightly higher as there appears to have been no major mishaps this Q, spot pricing trends remain strong, and major customers like STP have had strong results
(suggesting strong supply from WFR).
We model FQ3:08 (Sept) revs/EPS $625MM/$1.15 versus consensus $597MM/$1.10.
Street estimates finally appear conservative — After ~12mos of feeling like WFR was running hard to keep up with estimates, we think a gap is finally opening up. Given a better production ramp and guidance that we think still
appears conservative, we think Street numbers for CQ4 remain too low. We think WFR may be able to increase FY08 revs guidance back towards original $2.4-2.5B range and we remain ~$50MM and ~$0.10-$0.15 above Street on
revs and EPS for FQ4:08 (Dec).
Stock summary — Together with FORM (FORM.O; US$19.20; 1H), WFR remains one of our top ideas. We have long trumpeted the wave of poly supply coming in mid ’09 and ’10, but the oversupply bark is now louder than the bite as we estimate than even a 50% reduction in poly pricing in ’09 would take a bite from current earnings of only ~10% – a bite that will be more than offset by what should finally be meaningful capacity ramp. Maintain Buy (1H), $65 target.
You wanna short ABK? Madness….btw….it’s up 700% in 7 weeks…but it is was also down 99% in the last year. Do yo think Bill Ackman is still short this name hoping it will drop another 2 buck or even 7 bucks? The smart guys have taken their money and left the table with HUGE profits, while tools try to short it after it already hit bottom and takes out shorts to the tune of up 40% days. Look at MBI’s daily chart…..now that is a BTFO stock! Go ahead short that too, be more fuel for it recovery.
Look ahead and try to figure out what has already bottomed and play the long side…more money to be made with less risk.
Quick note…the DOW did break 11,700. Giddy up.