I Want To Raise Cash, But Have Nothing To Sell

This is a very aggravating point which I find myself in; stewing around the 9th floor, pacing up and down the length of the rug.

On the one hand, I do not trust “the market”. “The market”…is a real dick and is always out to get me. “The market” is populated by the lowest common denominator of human life. “The market” is driven by emotions and cheaply dismissed arguments.

“The market” can go to hell.

But on the other, I cannot for the life of me identify what it is I should sell. I’ve been through my portfolio twice, with a comb, and frankly, it’s just not that expensive.

If I get a wooden stake through my heart owning a company like MAA, 95% occupied multifamily rental business during a disappointing re-collapse in mortgages, with almost no multiple baked in for growth…I mean, what am I supposed to own?

The only position I have which I can clearly identify as “overvalued” – based exclusively on the metrics – is CCJ (or UEC). But those positions have nothing to do with the metrics, and are still so cheap…what, are we going to not trade uranium ever again? Sure, why not let the fuel for 10% of the grid go offline through massive mining failures. I love playing Dystopia as much as the next kid on the block.

And I know what’s going to happen. The instant I buckle and buy some hedging, one of my positions goes on “the run” again and I miss out.

So that’s the wrap. I just can’t see how the market doesn’t correct – you don’t sustain the kind of damage some of these stocks have seen without there being some follow-through repercussions. I find myself having too little cash and nothing to sell – and horror! I was at 30-40% cash just in February.

To hell with all of you. I blame the NASDAQ for this. You should need a license to invest in tech stocks – way too much responsibility for some of you.

BAS has completely reversed yesterday’s move. All hope is now lost.

If not for Basic Energy Services turning on a dime and sprinting away from the rest of the trash that comprises this trading session, I would be having a pretty bad day.

UEC is down over 50% since I bought it. Mind you, as I have stated repeatedly, it is a small position. At its peak, it was under 5% of my account. So I’m not panicked here. But damn it, that was my 5%.

Give me my money back.

The trouble with the uranium miners (and the reason I’ve been very adamant up until now to just keep it simple and avoid the smaller businesses) is pretty forwardly summed up in UEC’s latest filing. They sold $0.00 in revenue in the first three months of 2014.

That’s $0.00.

The 2014 YEAR OF URANIUM BLISS (or whatever the hell I called it) …has been cancelled. Uranium spot just nosedived this week and, even though I suspect this flash crash is nearer the end of the turmoil, that kind of godless price action can only portend one thing.

Somebody is about to get liquidated.

I just pray it isn’t UEC.

CCJ is treading water daily. It’s all she can do to hold the line, but one false move and it’s a quick list to the side and down she goes.

The rest of my positions are holding up fairly well, actually. The multifamily theme remains tantalizing, particularly now that the primary argument against them – a resurgence in homeownership rates and a drop in occupancy for rentals – is such obvious bunk. AEC and MAA should continue to perform.

NRP has held up decent enough, following the 25% washout it took this year. That’s probably been my worst idea so far in 2014. But they are getting things under control, I have a hunch coal may be a terrific investment here, and I get to collect 8% annually while I wait.

I’m definitely not +10% for the year anymore, but there’s another 8 months to make something happen yet. My fear isn’t my positions, it’s what consequence an entire index of investors getting their combined comeuppance will have on me.

The NASDAQ traders got stupid. Real stupid. Will that spill over to me? It’s looking likely.

Like it or not, the stock market tends to take on a real flare of the vineyard effect. You pop up five vineyards next to each other, they all do well. Plenty of room to visit each, for the patrons. In fact, it draws in more business.

But if one of those bastards let’s an infestation go unattended; suddenly you have nothing but tears and reek wine.

Tesla earnings are out after the bell. Let’s see what happens there.

I’ve been keeping up on earnings for my companies as they post, but I haven’t quite had the spare time to translate everything I’m thinking into posts. It’s been a rapid series of reports and not quite enough time to write out my thoughts on the subject.

Rest assured, if there had been any big deviations from the plans, I’d tell you.

As HCLP has been a particularly precious position and given how closely I’m tracking, it merits special consideration.

The company guided in on revenues and missed on earnings (depending on who you ask). But neither of that matters. This is what is actually important:

The company continues to see rapid increases in demand for product. Tonight, in addition to reporting earnings, they also announced another amended contract that, and I quote, “…significantly increases the annual committed volumes under the agreement signed in March and extends the term by two more years.”

No, you’re not seeing things. HCLP just amended this same contract two months ago. I guess realities on the ground have already changed so much that they were afforded the luxury of re-renegotiating.

I look at the last press release from March, where they announced the original amendment to the Weatherford contract, which was to be in place for a further three years, at a specified (then higher) volume of sand, for a higher price.

So two months later, that contract has become a five year contract for even higher volumes.

Yes I do like the sound of that. You can bank on these developments flowing through the natural gas producers and well servicing sectors soon enough. High demand for sand means high demand for gas.

Natural gas inventory is at eleven year lows and there is lingering concern that adverse weather this year could put real pressure on refilling storage. This would translate to pressure on users for higher prices and alleviate much of the residual pessimism surrounding natural gas from 2011.

The natural gas game is on.

Every morning we are greeted by the same seemingly endless river of selling and blood. And every afternoon, the market fights back, plus some.

The terror of this is certainly infecting the minds of the weak, but you must be strong. I confess, even I become afraid when I see my stocks tipping, each and every day. Behind this charade, however, the path higher remains clear to me.

There are still companies worth buying. I will be truly afraid when I look for positions to purchase and come up, repeatedly, empty handed.

This is merely a changing of asset type, not the beginning of something more. The market is putting the old staples in tech and fast growing IPOs out of favor, turning their attention now to my preferred positions – energy and infrastructure.

I have sworn off hedging and short positions in this last cycle for a reason; it’s been a huge money loser. I have a few percent tied up in puts that will not adequately cover my losses should we get a severe correction, and am just fine with that.

We are not in for another 2008. An event of that magnitude occurs once every hundred years. Here and now, we are still recovering from a system wide shock, and retirees very much need a place to park their livelihoods. The system will continue to recovery, albeit slowly.

Have faith in that.

I added more HCLP for $39.55. Do I need to explain myself?

Cash stands at 13%.

HCLP and BAS have surpassed CCJ as my largest position. Those three now account for just under 60% of my book.

Rebalancing will probably come soon, but not right now. HCLP is going to punch through brick walls first.